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Zinger2099
PostPosted: Sun Oct 27, 2024 8:59 pm 
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Oh ****. I made 2 mistakes actually.

In the insane outcome, option 2, I say Rag/Lain are Sane/Scum, but actually it's just Lain that's Sane and Rag that's Scum.

So if we assume scum has/had access to a global flip, then from my perspective, scum is either Rag (4 counts of possible), or KoD (1 count of possible), and Lain is cleared.

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Zinger2099
PostPosted: Sun Oct 27, 2024 9:10 pm 
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It makes sense that when I am considering Night-wide effects it would disproportionately make Rag look like scum, given Rag is the only player with two consistent results.

Basically, if there's night-wide effects in play, either KoD is scum and he has holstered his gun both Nights, or Rag is scum and she used her Night-wide effect once and is claiming two consistent results on herself to cast doubt on Night-wide effects being in play.

Now, if we assume Night-Wide effects are not on the table and the Mafia has a more targeted ability, it calls these assumptions into question. If the Mafia has a targeted ability then Lain or I could still be scum in the eyes of the POE. This is perhaps why Rag suggested solving me should be a priority? But personally, I think we should try to use the remaining time we have to solve Rag rather than someone like me because that would confirm or deny if we are in fact dealing with Night-wide vs targeted shenanigans.

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KingofDominaria
PostPosted: Sun Oct 27, 2024 10:08 pm 
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@ Rag:

I'm going to assume you are strictly assuming a global flip effect as opposed to individual results being altered, ja?

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Ragnarokio
PostPosted: Sun Oct 27, 2024 10:32 pm 
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KingofDominaria wrote:
@ Rag:

I'm going to assume you are strictly assuming a global flip effect as opposed to individual results being altered, ja?



assuming in what context?

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Ragnarokio
PostPosted: Sun Oct 27, 2024 10:34 pm 
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Quote:
It makes sense that when I am considering Night-wide effects it would disproportionately make Rag look like scum, given Rag is the only player with two consistent results.


For what its worth i did suggest that players redo their previous targets last night solely to rule this out (or confirm it)

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Ragnarokio
PostPosted: Sun Oct 27, 2024 10:35 pm 
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Ragnarokio wrote:
in a straight game:

Zinger as Scum:

Rag - Sane/Naive
Amber - Insane/Paranoid
KoD - Sane
Lain - Sane/Naive

Zinger can't be scum because it would require at least two sane cops in the town.

Rag as Scum:

Zinger - Results Impossible
Amber - Insane/Paranoid
KoD - Results Impossible
Lain - Insane/Paranoid

Rag can't be scum because neither Zinger's nor KoD's results map to one of the sanities in that case, making it an impossible gamestate in a striaght game.

KoD as Scum:

Zinger - Insane
Rag - Sane/Naive
Amber - Sane/Paranoid
Lain - Sane/Naive

Amber must be paranoid here to make room for me and lain to be sane/naive.

Lain as Scum:
Zinger - Results Impossible
Rag - Naive/Insane
Amber - Paranoid/Insane
KoD - Results Impossible

Lain can't be scum because neither Zinger's nor KoD's results map to one of the sanities in that case, making it an impossible gamestate in a striaght game.


In a straight game, KoD is the only possible candidate for scum

I'm going to try to do some analysis concerning possible tricks but it will be a lot of effort so i might give up partway through


this post describes the possible gamestates assuming no shenanigans.

My other two posts describe possible gamestates wherein you or zinger are scum and the scum player possesses the ability to alter one target's result each night.

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Ragnarokio
PostPosted: Sun Oct 27, 2024 10:39 pm 
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Quote:
If the Mafia has a targeted ability then Lain or I could still be scum in the eyes of the POE. This is perhaps why Rag suggested solving me should be a priority?


more or less, along with you and KoD being more likely candidates than lain (who i did not get around to calculating) and KoD being less solvable than you.

this is only in the case that mafia has a targeted ability though. at the time i did not internalize that my having the same result twice did not largely ruleout the potential for a nightwide ability, so its less of a priority. I still think a single target is more likely, because a night-wide ability is only plausible if i'm scum, which is statistically less likely than me being town.

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KingofDominaria
PostPosted: Sun Oct 27, 2024 10:47 pm 
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In the context of the abilities from the past events.

Strictly speaking, a global flip wasn't the only ability that was presented over the years. The first year it was, and the second year there was an addition to it, but subsequent years had a variety of abilities. IIRC, whether it was last year or the year before, there was a singular ability that effected how a person was viewed. I believe it was based on coal being placed on the person.

But yeah, that's why I'm assuming you're not taking into account when you're just assuming a straight-forward flip.

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Zinger2099
PostPosted: Mon Oct 28, 2024 9:08 am 
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Ragnarokio wrote:
I still think a single target is more likely, because a night-wide ability is only plausible if i'm scum, which is statistically less likely than me being town.

A night-wide ability that has already been fired is only plausible if you're scum.

KoD could be scum and in possession of a night-wide ability that he's holstered thus far. I've proved that in my analysis. As have you, technically, as a holstered ability is no different than your analysis of a straight game.

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Zinger2099
PostPosted: Mon Oct 28, 2024 9:34 am 
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In a straight game (and, by association, one in which the scum hasnt fired an ability yet for some reason) the only possible scum is KoD

In an activated night-wide flip game, the only possible scum is Rag.

In a targeted ability game, all four of us are still on the table.

Those are really the only possible outcomes, I think.

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Queenie
PostPosted: Tue Oct 29, 2024 10:36 am 
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We are close enough with no activity for the last 24+ so let's jump ahead 30 minutes.

Nobody voted so nobody is captured.

It is now Night 2. You have 48 hours to send in your roles.

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Queenie
PostPosted: Wed Oct 30, 2024 9:22 pm 
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Battered, worn down, but not defeated, the four remaining members of Mystery Inc gather once again to resume their discussion of who, or what, is responsible for Shaggy's death.

It is now Day 3. You have 72 hours to determine who the culprit may or may not be.

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KingofDominaria
PostPosted: Wed Oct 30, 2024 9:25 pm 
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I got a scum result on me.

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Zinger2099
PostPosted: Wed Oct 30, 2024 11:50 pm 
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No death. That's... an interesting choice?...

I got Town on KoD again, suggesting that my Night 0 and Night 2 results were both untampered with, on account of them being the same.

If Rag is to be believed, then her Night 0 and Noght 1 results suggest the same thing.

If both Rag and I are telling the truth, that in all likelihood means no Night-Wide abilities were used on any Night. I find this difficult to believe, myself.

I had assumed today would be LyLo, but the lack of a death throws that assumption off. Are we thinking the killer just forgot to submit a target? Or could this be a ploy to try and get us to doubt our results for Night 2?

Hmm...

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Ragnarokio
PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2024 12:26 am 
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@Numbers: what would you do if scum didn't submit a target?

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Ragnarokio
PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2024 12:27 am 
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i investigated KoD and got threat

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Queenie
PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2024 5:42 am 
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Ragnarokio wrote:
@Numbers: what would you do if scum didn't submit a target?


Depends on if the target is a mandatory targeting ability or not, and that sweeps through all alignments and all game types. If a player has a mandatory target and misses a submission, I typically select a target for them with random.org and note this to them in their role pm so they are aware of the consequences of missing a target beforehand.

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L41N
PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2024 11:13 am 
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I investigated KoD and got innocent.


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Ragnarokio
PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2024 1:38 pm 
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if we're going with the inactive theory KoD or lain make the most sense. I think i played a game with KoD recently and they forgot to submit actions and almost missed participating during phases so they might be busy irl lately or something. The results also seem to mostly point to them so they probably make sense in any case

we may as well use the extra night to get more results though

Vote: No Lynch

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Ragnarokio
PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2024 1:39 pm 
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although KoD did post right away hmm

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