KoD and lain please post your results ASAP!!!

I targeted myself and got innocent

zinger has got both threat and innocent result and got threat on a town confirmed person, so I think they must be insane. so minus shenanigans, kod would be the person? Then me and rag would be either naive or sane, and amber would be paranoid.

I got a scum result on Zinger.

So, barring shenanigans, I'm either sane or insane from what I'm seeing.

You said you targeted yourself and got town, so if you are town you would have to be sane.

i think

Kind of. The shenanigans are on my mind since past games had varying abilities. I neglected to retarget myself so if my result was adjusted there is the possibility I could be insane with Zinger being town (were my N1 result flipped).

Otherwise, I'd be sane and Zinger would be the one. I'm not sure on this though since, given the double checks from Rag and you I think, it certainly looks like a global flip didn't happen and that would lead to one of you being sane and the other being naive if I'm thinking it through correctly.

you said barring shenanigans though

in a straight game:

Zinger as Scum:

Rag - Sane/Naive
Amber - Insane/Paranoid
KoD - Sane
Lain - Sane/Naive

Zinger can't be scum because it would require at least two sane cops in the town.

Rag as Scum:

Zinger - Results Impossible
Amber - Insane/Paranoid
KoD - Results Impossible
Lain - Insane/Paranoid

Rag can't be scum because neither Zinger's nor KoD's results map to one of the sanities in that case, making it an impossible gamestate in a striaght game.

KoD as Scum:

Zinger - Insane
Rag - Sane/Naive
Amber - Sane/Paranoid
Lain - Sane/Naive

Amber must be paranoid here to make room for me and lain to be sane/naive.

Lain as Scum:
Zinger - Results Impossible
Rag - Naive/Insane
Amber - Paranoid/Insane
KoD - Results Impossible

Lain can't be scum because neither Zinger's nor KoD's results map to one of the sanities in that case, making it an impossible gamestate in a striaght game.


In a straight game, KoD is the only possible candidate for scum

I'm going to try to do some analysis concerning possible tricks but it will be a lot of effort so i might give up partway through

because i got the same results twice in a row its less likely a night-wide effect has been put in play and more likely that a more limited disruption effect is. I will be modelling the case that the suspect has the ability to corrupt one target's result each night in some unknown way. For now I'll just be posting zinger's. KoD's results are impossible unless zinger is scum, he is lying, or his results were interfered with, which should make it more likely that he or zinger are scum relative to other players, so i will be doing those two first.

Zinger as Scum with an arbitrary result disregarded each night:

Rag/Rag:

Rag:Any
Amber: Insane/Paranoid
KoD: Sane
Lain - Sane/Naive

Lain must be naive in this case. Discarding Rag's results both nights, it is possible for zinger to be scum. This gamestate can be ruled out by having lain generate a scum result or by having KoD generate a town result on zinger, or a scum result on anyone else, or by having Rag generate a town result on anyone other than zinger.

Rag/KoD:

Rag: Sane/Naive
Amber: Insane/Paranoid
KoD: Sane/Naive
Lain: Sane/Naive

This gamestate is impossible.

Rag/Lain:

Rag: Sane/Naive
Amber: Insane/Paranoid
KoD: Sane
Lain: Sane/Naive

This gamestate is Impossible

Amber/Rag:

Rag: Sane/Naive
Amber: Any
KoD: Sane
Lain: Sane/Naive

This gamestate is Impossible

Amber/Lain:

Rag: Sane/Naive:
Amber: Any
KoD: Sane
Lain: Sane/Naive

This gamestate is Impossible

KoD/Rag:

Rag: Sane/Naive
Amber: Insane/Paranoid
KoD: Sane/Paranoid
Lain: Sane/Naive

Amber must be insane. KoD must be paranoid. Rag and Lain are sane/naive. This gamestate can be contradicted by having KoD generate a town result.

KoD/KoD:

Rag: Sane/Naive
Amber: Insane/Paranoid
KoD: Any
Lain: Sane/Naive

One of rag and lain must be sane and naive. This gamestate can be contradicted by having KoD obtain a town result on anyone but zinger.

KoD/Lain:

Rag: Sane/Naive:
Amber: Insane/Paranoid
KoD: Sane/Naive
Lain: Sane/Naive

Gamestate is impossible.

Lain/Rag:

Rag: Sane/Naive
Amber: Insane/Paranoid
KoD: Sane
Lain: Sane/Naive

Gamestate is impossible.

Lain/KoD:

Rag: Sane/Naive:
Amber: Insane/Paranoid
KoD: Sane/Naive
Lain: Sane/Naive

Gamestate is imposible.

Lain/Lain:

Rag: Sane/Naive
Amber: Insane/Paranoid
KoD: Sane/Naive
Lain: Any

Lain and Amber are insane/paraoid and rag and KoD are sane and naive. This gamestate ca be contradicted by having lain generate a town result on any player other than zinger.

When considering the case of zinger being scum under this context:

7 of 11 gamestates are impossible.

Of the 4 possible gamestates:

One can be ruled out by having Rag generate a town result on anyone but zinger
Two can be ruled out by having KoD generate a town result on zinger
One can be ruled out by having KoD generate a scum result on non-zinger
Two can be ruled out by having KoD generat ea town result on non-zinger
One can be ruled out by having KoD generate any town result
One can be ruled out by having Lain generate a town result on anyone other than zinger.

when i am considering ways to rule out these results i am only considering single actions that could do it and not combinations of actions which is too much thinking for me, but its possible that we could further optimize by considering those as well.

KoD as Scum with an arbitrary result disregarded each night:

Zinger/Zinger:

Zinger: Any
Rag: Sane/Naive
Amber: Sane/Paranoid
Lain: Sane/Naive

Amber must be paranoid, Rag and Lain must be sane and naive. This result can be contradicted by having zinger generate a town result.

Zinger/Rag:

Zinger: Insane/Paranoid
Rag: Sane/Naive
Amber: Sane/Paranoid
Lain: Sane/Naive

Zinger must be insane. Amber must be paranoid. Rag and lain are sane and naive. This result can be contradicted in the following ways:

-Zinger generates scum result on KoD
-Zinger generates town result on non-KoD
-Rag generates scum result on non-KoD
-Lain generates scum result on non-KoD

Zinger/Lain

Zinger: Insane/Paranoid
Rag: Sane/Naive
Amber: Sane/Paranoid
Lain: Sane/Naive

Zinger must be insane. Amber must be paranoid. Rag and lain are sane and naive. This result can be contradicted in the following ways:

-Zinger generates scum result on KoD
-Zinger generates town result on non-KoD
-Rag generates scum result on non-KoD
-Lain generates scum result on non-KoD

Rag/Zinger:

Zinger: Insane/Naive
Rag: Sane/Naive
Amber: Sane/Paranoid
Lain: Sane/Naive

Zinger must be insane. Amber must be paranoid. Rag and lain are sane and naive. This result can be contradicted in the following ways:

-Zinger generates scum result on KoD
-Zinger generates town result on non-KoD
-Rag generates scum result on non-KoD
-Lain generates scum result on non-KoD

Rag/Rag:

Zinger: Insane
Rag: Any
Amber: Sane/Paranoid
Lain: Sane/Naive:

This result can be contradicted in the following ways:

-Zinger generates a scum result on KoD
-Zinger generates a town result on non-KoD

Rag/Lain:

Zinger: Insane
Rag: Sane/Naive
Amber: Sane/Paranoid
Lain: Sane/Naive

Amber must be paranoid. This result can be contradicted in the following ways:

-Zinger generates a scum result on KoD
-Zinger generates a town result on non-KoD
-Rag generates a scum result on non-KoD
-Lain generates a scum result on non-KoD

Amber/Zinger:

Zinger: Insane/Naive
Rag: Sane/Naive
Amber: Any
Lain: Sane/Naive

Zinger must be insane. This result can be contradicted in the following ways:

-Zinger generates a scum result on KoD
-Zinger generates a town result on non-KoD
-Rag generates a scum result on non-KoD
-Lain generates a scum result on non-KoD

Amber/Rag:

Zinger: Insane
Rag: Sane/Naive
Amber: Any
Lain: Sane/Naive:

Amber must be paranoid. This result can be contradicted in the following ways:

-Zinger generates a scum result on KoD
-Zinger generates a town result on non-KoD
-Rag generated a scum result on non-KoD
-Lain generates a scum result on non-KoD

Amber/Lain:

Zinger: Insane
Rag: Sane/Naive
Amber: Any
Lain: Sane/Naive:

Amber must be paranoid. This result can be contradicted in the following ways:

-Zinger generates a scum result on KoD
-Zinger generates a town result on non-KoD
-Rag generated a scum result on non-KoD
-Lain generates a scum result on non-KoD

Lain/Zinger:

Zinger: Insane/Naive
Rag: Sane/Naive
Amber: Paranoid
Lain: Sane/Naive:

Zinger must be insane. This result can be contradicted in the following ways:

-Zinger generates a scum result on KoD
-Zinger generates a town result on non-KoD
-Rag generated a scum result on non-KoD
-Lain generates a scum result on non-KoD

Lain/Rag:

Zinger: Insane
Rag: Sane/Naive
Amber: Paranoid
Lain: Sane/Naive:

This result can be contradicted in the following ways:

-Zinger generates a scum result on KoD
-Zinger generates a town result on non-KoD
-Rag generated a scum result on non-KoD
-Lain generates a scum result on non-KoD

Lain/Lain:

Zinger: Insane
Rag: Sane/Naive
Amber: Paranoid
Lain: Any

Lain must be sane or naive. This result can be contradicted in the following ways:

-Zinger generates a scum result on KoD
-Zinger generates a town result on non-KoD
-Rag generated a scum result on non-KoD
-Lain generates a scum result on non-KoD

When considering the case of KoD being scum under this context:

11 out of 11 gamestates are possible.

You can rule them out in a variety of ways but it'll probalby be easier to attempt to solve zinger rather than KoD so i'm not going to bother

if anyone feels they have anything to input to improve this process or wants to do the other 3 players feel free but i'm done with this for now maybe i will do more before deadline

provisionally its probably optimal for us to try to "solve" zinger which should involve ruling out each possible gamestate, preferably while considering any player's results could be dropped tonight, to that end each case needs to be tackled from at least two angles.

case 1:



Case 2:

[/quote]
Rag: Sane/Naive
Amber: Insane/Paranoid
KoD: Sane/Paranoid
Lain: Sane/Naive[/quote]

Case 3:


Case 4:


For each case, we should have either two players generating a result that contradicts the case on its own. I'll figure out if thats possible later but i am done for now

I respect that from your POV, if you are Town, this is unquestionably true, but from my POV, and indeed the POE, we can't rule out a night-wide effect based on your results alone because you could be mafia.

That said, I appreciate the effort you put into your lengthy analysis and will go through it all in more detail when I have time later today.

Yes, and that would be true with a town result on myself in the case of sane would it not?

I think I see the confusion given my inclusion of insane when talking about the results.

it would not

barring shenanigans it is impossible for you to be sane, insane, paranoid, or naive.

Here's the thing, KoD...

Let's look strictly at your results, ignoring everyone else's. If you targeted me last Night and got scum, then I know your results for last Night can't be Sane or Naive. Given your Night 1 result of Town on yourself, then you can't be Paranoid, either. This means the only remaining option, then, is Insane, but if you're insane and got Town on yourself, then that'd mean you actually weren't Town...

Ergo, unless your results were flipped on one of the two Nights, then you can't be any of the four alignments according to my perspective...

However, given I now think it's more than likely shenanigans were had, I don't immediately assume you are sus as a result. But yeah, unless you want to argue that I'm Mafia, you need there to have been shenanigans for us both to be Town. And all that is without even factoring in other people's results...

Perhaps it would help if we compiled everyone's stated results in a single place:

Player: Night 1/Night 2

Zinger: KoD Town/Amber Mafia
KoD: KoD Town/Zinger Mafia
Rag: Rag Town/Rag Town
Lain: Rag Town/Lain Town
Amber: KoD Mafia/dead

That is a LOT of Town results and FEW Mafia results.

Rag and Lain both got two Town results.
KoD and I both got 1 Town and 1 Mafia result.
Amber got one Mafia result.

I am assuming Amber was the Paranoid cop.

KoD and I could be the Sane/Insane cop respectively but, barring shenanigans, we can't be Naive.

Lain/Rag must contain the Naive cop.

Of course, shenanigans throws this all into question.

I'm going to consider only global flips in this post.

If I'm Naive...

Then my Night 2 results were flipped. Assuming it was a global flip, then KoD would have to be Sane, Amber Paranoid, Lain Insane, and Rag would have to be Scum. This absolutely works and is a viable possibility.

If I'm Paranoid...

Then my Night 1 result was flipped. Again assuming a global flip, then that means Amber is Naive, KoD is Insane, and... Lain and Rag are both Sane Cops and nobody is Scum. This breaks. Impossible.

If I'm Sane...

Then my Night 2 results were flipped. Assuming global flip again, then Amber is Paranoid, KoD is Insane, and... Nobody is Naive. This breaks.

If I'm Insane...

Then two possibilities exist.
1) Either no global flips occurred either night, in which case KoD is scum, Rag/Lain are Sane/Naive, and Amber is Paranoid; OR,
2) My Night 1 results were flipped. Assuming global flips, this means KoD is Paranoid, Amber is Naive, and Rag/Lain is Sane/scum.

Both 1 and 2 are possible and absolutely work.

Now, all of these assumptions fall apart if we consider single target inversions, but I suspect that global flips are the Mod's preference (I know, I'm playing outguess the Mod here, sue me). Considering only global flips being on the table, then from my POV, I can be either Naive or Insane only, and scum is restricted to Rag (2 counts of possible), and KoD and Lain (1 count of possible each).

Now let me go and cross examine my conclusions here with Rag's from her global flips post, and then after I've done that I'll consider single target flips.

Oh, I made a mistake actually.

In the outcome where I'm Paranoid above it says Rag and Lain are both Sane, but really Lain would have to be Sane and Rag scum. That does actually work. So change my conclusion above to "I can be Naive, Paranoid, or Insane, and scum is either Rag (3 counts of possible), or Lain and KoD (1 count each)."

Hmm... Sus, Rag.