Dethy: Don't Call it a Rumble

Welcome to Dethy. What is Dethy? It's four cops, each with a different sanity (sane - true results, insane - false results, naive - always green checks, paranoid - always red checks). It's one killer trying to take them out before they can determine their own sanity and the killer's identity in the course of that. It's logic and mechanics over behavioral reads. This is Dethy.

Rules

1. Don't discuss the game outside of the game thread.
2. Do not talk during the night.
3. Bolding of votes and separating them from other text is a must. Color is preferred and appreciated.
4. Do not edit your posts.
5. As with previous Dethy's, each PM is individually crafted but follows a similar template. The killer has been provided with a full fledged town PM to be able to fake claim and combat the general lack of knowledge on how a town PM would be worded. Don't bother trying to game the system that way.
6. All other general Mafia rules probably apply. If in doubt, just ask.
7. If you have any other questions definitely ask. I'll answer what I can.

Players

1. Rag
2. Lain
3. KoD
4. Zinger
5. Amber

A van rolled down the desolate road, dodging pot holes and swerving around areas where the pavement had just crumbled away in disrepair. It squeaked to a halt in front of a rusty gate with a sign in it reading "No Goblins Allowed".

"This looks like the place, gang." Freddie said, turning off the engine. "We've been brought on by the client to investigate claims of this deserted forum being haunted."

"Just look at it Fred, of course it's haunted." Shaggy whined.

"Rreah raunted." Scoob chimed in.

Velma looked at them incredulously. "Statistically, it's highly unlikely this place is haunted. None of the places we've investigated so far have actually been haunted..."

"You say that like those places haven't had dangerous criminals in them anyways Velms" Shaggy retorted. "That's just as bad!"

"Why don't you two grab yourself a Scooby Snack™ and then meet us inside." Daphne suggested, already over the back and forth.

The three left Shaggy and Scooby in the back of the van and made their way to the gates with a pair of bolt cutters. Twenty minutes later the back doors of the van burst open in a plume of smoke.

"Alright Scooby, let's finish this quick so we can go find a sandwich shop. I'm already feeling the munch."

It is now Night 0. Night will last 48 hours or until all roles have been received.

Hmm....

Nice of Numbers to bold all the character role names for us above. I find it especially interesting Shaggy is on there twice.

Ergo, evil Shaggy Clone is the killer.

Bingo. We solved it guys. Let's go home.

Rule 2. Also fixed the Night Post.

After a night of investigation Mystery Inc regroups to share their findings. No signs of haunting have been found yet, but the feeling you all are being watched can't be escaped...

It is now Day 1. You have 72 hours to make a decision on who you think the culprit may be.

idk what the optimal strtategy in dethy is

i investigated myself and got innocent

do we just no lynch until its down to 3 and then hope the poe is tight enough to increase the odds of hitting scum

I targeted myself and got town.

I do believe that is the general approach. Anything else is just spicy game play.

i targeted kod and got eeeeeevil

and yeah it's typically nl until lylo and then hope for the best

I also targeted KoD and got "not a threat to Mystery Inc."

I, therefore, have concluded I cannot be the Paranoid cop.

Assuming y'all are to be believed, then Amber cannot be the naive cop, and Rag and KoD can also not be Paranoid like me.

Given (at least) three people allegedly targeted KoD and two of the results were innocent, we can infer some interesting things. If KoD were indeed innocent, then Rag's result of innocence targeting herself couldn't possibly be true (because for her to be innocent and get a result of innocent on herself, she'd have to be the Sane or Naive cop, both of whom would have to have targeted KoD for KoD to be innocent and have two innocent results come up). Does this mean that either KoD or Rag is the traitor? Strictly speaking, no. It means either Rag is the traitor OR the traitor is one of the two people who claimed an innocent result on KoD. But from my perspective, since I know I'm not the traitor, that would practically mean either Rag or KoD is.

Unless my logic has holes in it, maybe?... Somebody double-check my math, please.

Sane Cop Possibilities: Rag, Lain, KoD, Zinger, Amber
Insane (in the Membrane) Cop Possibilities: Rag, Lain, KoD, Zinger, Amber
Naive Cop Possibilities: Rag, Lain, KoD, Zinger
Paranoid Cop Possibilities: Lain, Amber

I targeted rag and got town

means we purportedly got 4 town reads come up, two on kod, two on rag. also a red check on kod as well. uhh. i don't think that's actually possible to get 4 town reads, so one of those people is probably the baddie which doesn't narrow it down much i guess. but i think it clears amber, maybe?

Well now this makes it even more interesting, doesn't it?

Four results of town between myself, KoD, Rag, and Lain.

That definitively proves Amber must be the paranoid cop!

If KoD is scum, then I am Insane, and Rag/Lain are Sane/Naive respectively.
If Rag is scum, then KoD and I are Sane/Naive and Lain is Insane.

Pretty sure that's the only possible remaining outcomes. Obviously that takes my POV into account, but I think even from the POE that's provably true now. Let me see...

IF Rag/KoD were both innocent, it would invariably mean that one of them is Sane and the other is Naive (cuz they both got a town check on themselves), and then one of Lain/myself is mafia while the other of us both must be insane because it is the only sanity left... Only, if I am insane and got a town check on KoD then KoD would have to be scum, and if Lain is insane and got a town check on Rag then Rag would have to be scum. Ergo, the logic breaks every time.

We've proven on Day 1 that either Rag or KoD is our traitor.

This is irrefutable now.

Sane Cop Possibilities: Rag, Lain, KoD, Zinger
Insane (in the Membrane) Cop Possibilities: Rag, Lain, KoD, Zinger
Naive Cop Possibilities: Rag, Lain, KoD, Zinger

Paranoid Cop: Amber

It does more than just clear Amber. It actually clears Amber, you, and myself all three of us.

We've narrowed our suspects down to 2.

The optimal strategy for the killer will be to target one of the unknowns tonight.

Which means Lain and I are marked for death.

The killer can't kill KoD/Rag because then they are outing themselves. Killing Amber is a possible line of play for them, although that is very risky. Leaving Amber alive is safer because the Paranoid cop can't introduce any NEW information into the equation. So Amber is very likely safe toNight.

Unless KoD is the killer, then he might pop Amber for the memes.

So, assuming one of Lain and/or I will die toNight, we should try to come up with an optimal strategy for taking the most advantage of whichever result we get.

I think that means Lain needs to target KoD toNight and I need to target Rag... Right?

Or no... Maybe we should both target Amber?

Hmm... I'm not sure.

it's also worth considering mafia usually has some trick up their sleeve so it might be possible (i'd probably even say pretty likely) that there are some unreliable results in our pool for the day.
assuming our results are correct though, it does clear 3/5 people (which is to say i can second zinger's logic).
i wonder if having everyone just target me is the correct play here since i'm most likely to be cleared?

based on my own logic:

Rag as Scum:

Zinger - Naive/Sane
Amber - Paranoid
KoD - Naive/Sane
Lain - Insane

KoD as Scum:

Zinger - Insane
Rag - Naive/Sane
Amber - Paranoid
Lain - Naive/Sane

and zinger, amber, or lain being scum should be impossible as it would require at least three naive/sane cops.

I think this is the same as zinger's conclusion

this is of course discounting the mystery mechanic which exists to make this kind of solving less reliable

the only such mechanic i remember from past rumbles was krampus having the ability to invert results on one night. does anyone else remember the other ones? i might look them up later if i feel less lazy

it could be worth trying to guess at what they might possibly be and come up with optimal targets based on that, since we should be able to solve the "traditional" gamestate we may as well use our extra actions to try and rule out some mystery mechanic shenanigans.

notably, in a traditional setup amber if guaranteed to be paranoid, and so if they get a town result tomorrow that guarantees that there are shenanigans affecting amber on one or both nights. idk if we can do anything useful with that info or not though.

in the most extreme case we could have everyone repeat their night 1 targets to see how they changed. if they didn't its extremely likely the results were not tampered with on either night and so we can proceed by spending the final night solving me and KoD, although if they weren't tampered with the first two nights they probably will be the third, which means we'll probably have a 50/50.

if they were tampered with, we could potentially use the difference in the results to try and deduce how they were tampered with, and use that info to come up with targets for the final night that reduce the poe as much as possible.

we could target ourselves too. one of us 3 must be sane and one must be insane so regardless one of us would be one i think if one of them are lying. so if we targeted ourselves and got the opposite response as we did today when we targeted one of them i think it might solve it? idk though.

i guess maybe not if they can meddle with our responses