I think I should mention one more thing that I probably need to clear up:

I suspect that most of you falsely assume I am reading this thread daily. I am not. Do not assume that my inaction on an infraction is approval or acceptance. If you do not report it, you can reasonably assume I do not see it. Obviously, you all know better than I do when things are getting out of hand. I realize this has become an online hang out for a bunch of friends, and I also realize you probably do not generally want me to get involved. But that does not mean I should never or will never get involved. You all would know much better than I would when lines are being crossed. Please keep that in mind.

Stasis

Economic update (for anyone interested)

So this morning's rise in US unemployment to 4.3% is likely the heralding call to the long-awaited US recession (which was pushed off by the long tail of pandemic-era stimulus and all that pent-up demand). Wasn't expecting that jump so now I'm gonna have to write up a piece over the weekend for work lol.

At least there are lower inflationary pressures now. But this SHOULD be a big topic for the election (although i bet it won't be), as this contraction shouldn't last too long and we'll likely see the unemployment rate peak within 6 months (by end of year), so again it SHOULD be a focus in the election somewhat.

Anyway, the election isn't really important or relevant on this but I thought that part/angle might be of interest here.

Those unemployment rates would be GREAT over here... we are at a whooping 8.5%

oh man 8.5 is high. US almost hit 9% at the end of GFC in 2010 or so. And that was the highest it's ever been in more than half a century. it hasn't been below 3% since the 60's.

wish i could share some charts that we drew up, but I have no idea how.


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Going to go see TRAP with Emily on Sunday. This will be my first M. Night Shymalanaan movie since The Last Airbender (one of the worst movies I've ever seen). I tried to watch some of both After Earth and Old, but couldn't take more than 15 minutes of either, they were terrible. I was also subjected to The Happening which is incredibly bad.

So i haven't been willing to give him a chance in a long time, even though I heard good things about Split and Knock at the Cabin. But not enough good things to make it worth trying them out.

Long gone are the days of Sixth Sense, Unbreakable, Signs, The Village and Lady in the Water. Five in a row that I liked although I admit Village wasn't nearly as good as the three before. And I think I'm the only person on the planet that liked Lady in the Water. Critics sure hate this guy lol.

Anyway, I'm not expecting Trap to be good, but i'm willing to pull the trigger. Something must be up with it because they are showing the reveal IN the trailer so I'm thinking there's gotta be some awesome twist (and there better be lol). Cuz why would they show that the dad is the guy they're looking for? Wouldn't that have been a cool surprise in the movie? There's gotta be something else. Maybe the daughter is the killer and the dad is protecting her lol.

Three years of outrageous inflation rates, followed by a potential, now likely, recession.

Boy I'm glad Biden got out of the race with his nonsense about his excellent economic record. I just hope they aren't able to paint Harris with that brush. She should really start disowning Biden, to the extent that she can without offending people, immediately. I don't know why they thought they could make the 'the economy is great' claims, but I hope they finally stop trying, because people aren't that stupid, and it was going to hurt them if they continued trying to gaslight the American public.

The economy is doing pretty good. Lots of people making a ton of money, savings growing to record levels, early retirement looking very easy to pull off, etc. I've been very happy with US markets. Not sure which metrics you use, and it's crazy how much you blame the President for inflation when he is literally has zero control or influence. It's a product of a market environment and there was no way to avoid it from all the pandemic boosting. Plus, it's the Federal Reserve which sets rates to combat inflation and such. Also inflation isn't all that country-specific. We've had it too up here. Especially in core services, but it was everywhere.


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Quick parental brag story showing that Emily is like her old man*:

Emily loves drinking milk. She helps herself to a glass of my homo milk whenever she feels like it. I have lots of different size glasses. The two most prominent are a short fat glass, and a tall thin glass.

Emily asks me out of the blue, "do we have a ruler?" I'm like no, but we have a measuring tape.

Next thing I know is she's measuring the circumference of the glasses as well as the height. "Dad, is this the formula for measuring volume in a cylinder?" "WHAT? How would I know? Check the internet, but I think "pi" is in there somewhere".

She then runs some numbers and in less than 5 minutes from start to finish, she's figured out that the short fat glass can hold more milk, so she selects that one.

When I was 13, I was playing on my Nintendo.


*i really am an old man. Out of NOWHERE, I've started enjoying V8 juice (which I've never liked) and i have Engelbert Humperdinck in my head like CRAZY these days "quando! quando! QUAN-DOOOOOOHHHHH"

Oh boi DJ going to explode or something.

The only metric I care about is the direct comparison between what I am currently earning/currently worth, and how much things cost me. My best guess is that during this "good" economy I've lost close to a hard 20-25% of my net worth. That's a complete unmitigated disaster by any measure, at least from my perspective. I barely know anyone who is better off as a result.

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Emily's answer: pi * r ^2 * h -> I even checked it on the abacus.

You can easily remember these kinds of formulas by remember the way they are constructed. Start from the flat plane equation and multiply it by the height. So for example, let's say we want the surface area of a cylinder with no tops or bottoms: that would just be the length of the circumference of the circle 2 * pi * r multiplied by h its height. If you want to add the caps you need their surface area. So you'd add 2 * pi * r^2 (because there are two of them) to 2 * pi * r * h.

Now let's look at a special case: a cylinder with radius r and height r. If we wanted the surface area of that specific item we get 2 * pi * r^2 + 2 * pi * r * r (which was h=r) = 4 * pi * r^2 -> this is a really interesting result, because it's the derivative wrt to r of the volume of a sphere with the same radius: 4/3 * pi * r^3... I wonder if there's a relationship there... more on this in a later post.



IDIOT!

omg! My actual guess was pi-r-squared times the height. That was my guess. Haven't used or seen that formula in four decades.



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what time period are you measuring for losing 20-25% of your net worth. If you kept it invested, it's anything but a disaster since it comes back (if invested correctly and prudently). If you took it out after losing 20-25% (like my mom did) then that's a disaster which is the investor's fault. If you are close to retirement and you lose 20-25%, then that's also a disaster, but someone that far along should never ever be invested in a portfolio that can have that level of downside. I'm probably 10-15 years from retirement, and i've got huge downside protection in my portfolio now. Still earning a solid 7% per year lately, which is great and kicking inflation in the balls.

S&P500 is up over 18% over the last year, up 82% over the last 5.

There has not been a recession. the Fed dodged one temporarily (it's coming anyway) with all that stimulus (which caused the inflation).

economy is doing good. Some sectors much better than others.

I'm just talking, mostly, about my ability to purchase things, relative to my ability to earn money. The costs have escalated far faster than my pay, and I am absolutely not unique in that regard - that said, I'm probably a lot less hurt than most people. The costs have also escalated far faster than my portfolios. In some areas costs seem to have more than doubled, my portfolios have definitely not doubled. Some of this may be exacerbated by Houston-specific changes.

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Btw, the conclusion to my statements earlier comparing cylinders to spheres is... no, there's not a relationship, but it's still an interesting property.

Nobody cares, I know. But meh, it was fun.

One thing that was really cool in your statement was undeniable support of the notion that people’s number one driver of presidential approval is « am I better off than I was four years ago? »

If the answer is no, they don’t support the president. I personally don’t vote along those lines but this is the primary determinant in politician support in America. So it’s cool to see it play out, in the flesh, as it were

Yup, and I am definitely worse off right now. Blame it on Biden or not?.. in my case I do actually blame it on Biden, because his energy policies have, in fact, hurt me very directly. But, I am definitely in the minority for that specific issue.

Btw, why wouldn't people blame the chief executive - at least somewhat - if they are worse off? Is his job not to improve people's lives? I'd say that is at least part of it, so for the people who are better off to vote their approval and the people who are worse off to vote their disapproval seems fair to me.

Canada is similar. Energy industry is having issues and they blame is squarely on the prime minister up here even though there are endemic issues at play in the energy industry that government policy had zero effect on (even if they want to)

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To answer your second question, you make a fair point. In sone countries, you could legitimately blame the head of state (North Korea is a perfect example) for the welfare of the nation.

But for me in a country with perfect freedom, I would blame myself if I was worse off and I’d correct the course to improve it. I can’t wait for someone else to do it for me

Many times in my life and career, I took downtowns (2-3 come to mind), and each time I eventually changed course and took actions to make it better. The government didn’t do anything other than maintaining a country where I have the freedom to improve my own situation freely

Ohh for **** sakes there are children reading this!

Those endemic issues should have caused the prime minister to help. They are right to be angry with him if he is responsible for ANY policy that caused them further damage than they would already have faced. If someone is already down you don't make things worse by kicking them.

I'm squarely on the side of people in Canada complaining about these things. They are right to complain, IMO.

edit: saw your edit, and I agree. But these things take time, and I'm working on a solution to the situation. Plus, I'm fine, so I'm not too worried about it.

They are blinded to the real issues causing them problems and are using the government as a scapegoat instead of facing reality


Almost everyone does this with most aspects of their lives btw. It’s human nature.

I hope I never do it and try to resist the urge

No, they are not blinded to the real issues. They are aware of the real issues. They are also aware of the things the Government has done to compound those real issues, AND they are rightly angry about getting kicked when they would already be down.

Reminder, I do a substantial amount of work for Canadian companies. So I'm more aware of this than the typical American might be, and I have my finger, so to speak, on the pulse of energy industry people (even those who would tend to benefit from the Government policies). My main Canadian client, not only will benefit from the Government policies, but in fact would go belly up if those policies went away. (yes, we have a hedge, but I'm just being a little bit hyperbolic).

Im not sure its governments role to buoy industries that can’t compete. Governments should be promoting innovation, education and such. I’m not sure how I feel about bailouts in general.

When governments try to intervene they do stuff like tariffs which cause more harm than good

Or create Carbon Taxes, and other impediments like refusing to allow production/transportation in certain areas, all of which hurt the businesses that would already be in pain.

They didn't beed to buoy the oil industry, they just didn't need to further hamstring it. No action would have been fine.

Yes I agree carbon taxes are a weird solution to global warming and climate change. Seems like there are better avenues to pursue

Sin taxes don’t really work