Christmas is over, a new year looms on the horizon. Yet we still rumble on. Krampus and Kringle have retired for the year. Ready yourself. Your enemies have ceased their reprieve and taken Aim. Will this be your year? Or will you surrender to the Fire?

Gameplay

Each Player starts the game with one bullet in their gun. If they kill a player who has a bullet, they reload. Each Night they may shoot another player, shoot themselves, or not shoot and investigate whether a player has a bullet (result reports after actions). Each day you will repeat the process but cannot select the action you chose the night before. If you are unfamiliar with RAF, the basics of it are shooting a player kills them (including yourself if nobody else shoots you). But if you shoot another player who is also shooting themselves then any player shooting that player other than themselves will die. Doing neither leaves you completely vulnerable.

Round 3

Round rules:
1. Phases will be 72 hours. You may talk in thread during day or night phase.
2. Phases will end when all actions are locked in (a player states no further desire to change their action) or time reaches deadline, whichever comes first.
3. Any action may be changed within the confines of the deadline unless you've previously stated you were locking in. Then there's no take backs.
4. Abilities are compulsory. Any ability not selected will be rando'd.
5. All other standard Mafia rules apply.

Players:
1. Dark
2. KoD
3. Aaarrrgh
4. Mongoose
5. Silver

KoD investigated. Result: Has Committed No Crimes.

Well, I investigated Dark. Now I'm not saying this is exactly what I saw, but IF I found him in someone's house **** in their stockings, well, I'd say he's pretty guilty. Savvy?

Please no kink shaming in here!

I heard that Sky is as innocent as the day he was born.

Sneaking into people's homes and leaving your unwanted stuff? Seems like something Tevish would do.

Hunting Santa (?) fills me with trepidation. I kind of want presents.

(KoD is apparently innocent of pro-Christmas sentiment.)

What are the "Standard Rumble rules"?

Most are the same as standard Mafia rules. No posting outside the thread, no use of codes, yada yada. No lynch isn't an option but lynches can be passed pending no votes. I think that's the only major thing outside the standard rules. If you have any specific questions on what you can and can't do you can always pm me.

So, since we've all sounded off, here are the results as I find them

Tevish: Innocent on KoD (Cannot be Paranoid)
KoD: Guilty on Dark (Cannot be Naive)
Dark: Innocent on Sky (Cannot be Paranoid)
Aaarrrgh: Guilty on Tevish (Cannot be Naive)
Sky: Innocent on KoD (Cannot be Paranoid)

There are two investigations on KoD both of which turn up Innocent. The only possibility for KoD being guilty is if one of myself and Sky is Insane and the other is Naive. That's very specific. There are only two Guilty results, so one of KoD or Aaarrrgh is Paranoid. The other is LIKELY to be Insane, but could technically be Sane or a Liar. Let's try to break that down

If KoD is Sane, Aaarrgh is Paranoid. Insane would have had to investigate Scum, but Dark is scum in this scenario and nobody but KoD did. KoD is not the Sane cop.

If Aaarrrgh is Sane, KoD is Paranoid. Insane would have had to investigate Scum, but I'm scum in this scenario and nobody but Aaarrrgh investigated me. Aaarrrgh is not Sane.

If KoD is Insane and Aaarrrgh is Paranoid, I could be Sane, Dark Naive, and Sky a Liar. There may be other scenarios. It is possible that KoD is Insane.

If Aaarrrgh is Insane and KoD is Paranoid, I could be Naive, Sky could be Sane, and Dark could be a Liar. There may be other scenarios. It is possible that Aaarrrgh is Insane

If KoD is lying Scum, Aaarrrgh must be Paranoid. In this case, either I or Sky could be Insane and the other is Naive. Dark would be Sane. This checks out. It is possible KoD is scum.

If Aaarrrgh is lying Scum, KoD must be Paranoid. However, the three remaining investigations would all be on non-scum, leaving no result for Insane. Aaarrrgh can not be Scum

Possible Results
Tevish (me): Scum, Naive, Sane, Insane
KoD: Scum, Paranoid, Insane
Dark: Scum, Naive, Sane, Insane
Aaarrrgh: Insane, Paranoid
Sky: Scum, Naive, Sane, Insane

I could try to break down myself, Dark, and Sky more but I'm on a short timer right now.

Actually, I had a little more time.

If I am Scum, Aaarrrgh MUST be Paranoid and KoD must be Insane. Dark and Sky would be Naive and Sane. This checks out.
If I an Naive, KoD could be Scum, Sky Insane, Aaarrrgh Paranoid, and Dark Sane. There may be other options. This checks out.
If I am Insane, KoD is Scum, Aaarrrgh is Paranoid, Sky is Naive, and Dark sane. This checks out
If I am Sane, Aaarrrgh is Paranoid, KoD Insane, Dark Naive, and Sky Scum. This checks out.

If Sky is Scum, Dark could be Naive, I Sane, Aaarrrgh Insane, and KoD Paranoid. This checks out.
If Sky is Naive, at least one of the above scenarios checks out.
If Sky is Insane, at least one of the above scenarios checks out.
If Sky is Sane, at least one of the above scenarios checks out.

If Dark is Scum, KoD is Paranoid, Aaarrrgh Insane, and Sky and I split Sane/Naive. This checks out.
If Dark is Naive I have posited at least one scenario that checks out already
If Dark is Insane, Sky is Scum. Both KoD and Aaarrrgh would have to be paranoid THIS DOES NOT CHECK OUT
If Dark is Sane, Sky could be Insane, KoD Scum, I Naive, and Aaarrrgh Paranoid. There maybe other routes. This checks out.

Dark is not Insane. The rest of the possibilities from before remain.

So far, I agree entirely with that analysis, with the obvious caveat that we don't know what sick twist our dear mod had inflicted upon this game.

Boy we're a quiet bunch. Let me stir the pot a little by asking the question: Do we consider lynching straight away? If we do, we (theoretically) get two lynches before gg as opposed to, if we hold our collective hand, only getting one (albeit with the most possible information). Standard Dethy theory says no, but there's almost certainly some degree of Shenanigans afoot. If our future intel can be expected to be bad, standard MAFIA theory is to lynch away.

And, from my perspective, I can "Safely" eliminate Aaarrrgh and myself from the lineup. That leaves KoD, Dark, and Sky as possible scum, which when we can lynch two of them is pretty good odds even "blind". We're not blind, however -- we have respondent order and probabilities to consider. If I were King of All Cosmos and everything just obeyed me, I think I'd go ahead and take a swing at Sky (last to sound off) right now and lean heavily on Dark over KoD the following day if a following day were to exist, barring any truly bizarre revelation or occurrences, because there seem to be more scenarios in which Dark could be safely called scum than ones in which KoD could be.

That said, it still feels monstrously, fundamentally wrong to D1 lynch in a Dethy game. Every bean counting drop of logician's pride in my body is screaming for me to not advocate it, while the gambling dice-roller side of me is hollering that it's a good bet that absolutely should be taken. I feel like this means it's at least a conversation we should have.

While you are seemingly correct about the statistics, you are once again taking info at face value in a game where we have been specifically told that there's a twist we don't know about. I think it's far safer to wait, just in case tomorrow's info contradicts today's.

I agree.

I was gonna ask if you guys want shorter deadlines to skip the waiting but deadline is tonight anyway so...

Anyways 12 hours to deadline. Accepting pre-targets. Instating lock votes, ie if you lock vote your vote will then be unchangeable and deadline will be advanced if all votes become locked. Thought about reinstating no lynch but after today not sure how much you'll want to use that so whatever it stays gone.

I'll say that's close enough. No votes were issued so nobody is lynched.

It is now Night 1. You have 48 hours or until all actions have been submitted.