No visible effect is not the same as no effect. Yeah, we've had a few claims, but we still don't know exactly what all of that means. Also, keep in mind that you still don't know anything about my role (which I know is not necessarily a point in my favor, but I want to remind you that you are working with incomplete information).

Why not me? Amber's claim is still super fishy to me, and I don't feel like she's really done much of anything to help town this game, so she seems like a better lynch. M0nster's claims would only add up in a few very rare and narrow scenarios, so that would also be a place to look. The only thing which doesn't make Mongoose look scummy is the fact that he swooped in to hammer Ex, but if he had some way of knowing Ex was lying (or if Ex told the truth but Mongoose is bulletproof or something), that means nothing and we're left with a player who has not contributed anything. Take your pick.

Personally I'm mostly leaning Mongoose right now, so here goes nothing:

Vote: Mongoose

I'm accounting for incomplete information. I know you love reading my posts. Especially the one where I worked through my reasoning for susing and not susing some people wrt to information (both known and unknown).

You, Skystone, and myself have definitely not made any claims regarding our roles. Maybe Mongoose, though I don't recall (probably more likely he hasn't either if I can't really recall his posts other than where he voted over me to lynch Ex).

In any event, with everyone, save Amber, making promises left and right, your refusal to enter into a promise while ducking and dodging all but made you suspicious. The reasoning itself is weak given that promises are a main component of the game. Like, numerous role reveals gave strict indication to promises made (like Monster's D1 reveal of protecting someone that hasn't willfully broken any promises). You waffled around with engaging into a promise to vote someone that was clearly not town as opposed to the target you were hard stuck on D1 and part of D2.

You're not solving anything Arrgh. You're only trying to avoid drawing attention. It explains your actions perfectly with or without information regarding your role.

Arrgh


The pot should NOT be calling the kettle black. Matter of fact, unlike you, Amber has at least participated in the important lynches like D1 with Rag v Ex (her vote being on Rag). She even breadcrumbed about her role AND claimed her role recently. What, exactly, are you bringing to the table, Arrgh? Because your focus on Tevish certainly didn't bring anything, and now you've gone and pointed at Amber with less than satisfactory reasoning to back up the assertion.


Matter of fact, everything about your paragraph there is anything but solving. You're literally just fielding suspicions, but you're not attempting to resolve issues or hone in people with any accurate reasoning.

Like, look at your Mongoose thing. Mongoose wouldn't have hammered Ex, unless he had some way of knowing Ex was lying. Like what? We've already seen various effects from D1 alone that don't even offer the option of information gathering that the mafia could use to give them an indication that Ex was lying. And it's not like Ex had extra effects beyond what he initially stated about becoming part of a group's wincon. So despite the glaring gap, you still decide Mongoose is scummy for -- for what?


You are literally grasping at anything to throw in front of yourself in the hopes you don't become the focus of today's lynch.

One minute KoD thinks I am town. The next, he's convinced I am scum. Now he's convinced I am town again?

He's just looking for any lynch he think he can make stick. How is it nobody else but me finds this guy anything but completely scummy?

He's leading those of you who are too apathetic to do any real scumhunting yourselves to your graves.

Yeah. You can see my progression laid out clearly in the thread.

Strictly speaking, I'm hedging here wrt to you. As I've clearly laid out concerning you, the glaring issue you have is you admitted to targeting Zinger with your protection, and it failed. I don't know how new you are, or if you're an actual stranger, but Zinger breaking a promise isn't a thing at all. He's built his reputation for years following his NLP (No Lie Policy). As long as it doesn't concern his alignment, he's speaking as honestly as the information he has at his hands. That's why I, rightfully, viewed you as scum coupled with your side comments about my pinky and my promise to Zinger.

But, and again, as I've clearly stated before in the thread, I don't see why, as scum, you'd admit to targeting Zinger. Not unless you are making for a literal gamble of some sort.


Like, here, let me paint this out for you.



Let's assume everything said is true. You're a doctor that can protect people so long as they haven't willfully broken a promise. Zinger is playing with his NLP. Zinger makes some promises (some about his alignment which is not covered under his NLP and one with me regarding defending me).

We're all on the same page so far.

Now then, Zinger is killed N2. Killed. By the mafia. Because he's dead and flipped as town. Zinger flipping town directly means he's, obviously, not mafia so he obviously has no reason to break any of the promises he's made.

And you stated to have targeted him with your protection on N2. The one that works, unless your target ***willfully*** broke a promise.

Zinger still died though. Ergo your protection failed.

Why? Well, here is where we hash this out. The simplest answer is often the correct one. So:

1 - Zinger willfully broke a promise.

2 - You're lying.

These are the simplest answers as they require the fewest assumptions to be made thereby not making the situation complicated.

With 1, we face the idea that Zinger willfully broke a promise. Seeing as how he only made promises wrt to his alignment (ie. not being mafia) and with me (to defend me), it stands to reason that he upheld those promises as he strictly defended me as necessary and he was town. Ergo, this answer is not the right one. That is, Zinger didn't willfully break a promise.


With 2, we face the idea that you're lying. It's a simple answer to what happened. Given your supposed claim, Zinger, were you telling the truth, should have been protected as there is no reason to assume he broke a promise. Yet, since your ability failed to protect him, Zinger ended up dead. Ergo, you lied about your ability, and as such you are mafia aligned.



That's the strictest way to look at it.


Getting complicated would be the stuff you said to me much earlier when we had this conversation. That maybe there is a strongarm effect of some sort that allowed them to bypass your protection. Or that maybe my pinky being cut off had an effect on Zinger's promise (even though, by your own words, your ability would still protect someone that didn't willfully break a promise).


By all rights, your claim pretty much demands that you are scum. There's no avoiding that.


And that is the problem, for me. I can't imagine that, as scum, you'd make such a bold, yet reckless move without accounting for something as basic as your claim and target/s. It just doesn't make sense. But in order for me to justify that, I have to accept that there is something that caused your ability to fail on Zinger somehow. That's the only way. That's why you see a progression in my posts trying to piece together what information we have.











But I think you're stuck in how I'm approaching this. That or maybe my focus on you has rubbed you wrong. Either way, the interaction regarding you is a mess. That is a fact.

And while you are still alive to be a target, as you aptly put it in one of your previous posts towards me, there are others who don't have as much information known about them.

At this point, if we're truly facing a 3 man scum team with us in MyLo, than we should be exercising our information to the utmost and coming up with what is as close to the truth as we possibly can. Clearly, you've got a perspective for me being scum. Is it strictly because of my attack on you earlier? Or have you gone through the posts I've made, read them, and decided that I'm spitting nonsense?

Also, I've done reasonable work in lowering down suspects for a potential scum team combination. That progression is also on clear display.

Just as I've directed a response at Arrgh concerning this, what about you, Monster? Yes, you're focused on me for some obvious actions, but is that all you have to offer despite the plethora of information that has been drizzled over us? What about the remaining scum team? Do you see me working with someone if I'm a part of the scum team?

If not, then why haven't you developed more? We're potentially in MyLo (more than likely given the posts that talked about the maths). We can get another night of information potentially provided there isn't an extra kill tonight, and that's that's a big question mark wrt to that. Otherwise, the only option we have is to lynch the right person so they flip as scum and allow the game to continue on for a hopeful town victory.

But not pressing the issues at hand will not aid the town in winning.


I've got my suspects and I've fleshed out the whys. How about you?

Anyone else?

I'll admit to a certain temptation to vote for Aaarrrgh on the basis that KoD is, at least, hunting scum. Given the utter absence of Naga and Mongoose from Day 3 proceedings, and Amber's apparent inclination to participate only to defend herself, I'm worried at this point that mafia might be tempted swoop in at deadline to secure themselves them a lynch.

I don't want to lose to that, so my options seem either to be to vote for Aaarrrgh or to hang around at the deadline ready to counter-vote whoever tries to misbehave. The latter, of course, is appreciably riskier.

But I'd honestly prefer lynching Monster on the basis that she disconnected from the game as soon as Day 3 discussions started floundering. She only popped back in to OMGUS KoD.

Sky,

I know you made a post that talked about Monster as well as other players. I have even reread the posts of today to get a sense of where people stand. What I want to know from you concerns Monster's claim and ability. That is, your thoughts strictly on that. She obv claimed to have targeted the person that died despite her own claimed ability. Do you see her making a gambit on that as scum? Does she seem insincere enough about her claims to you?


I, personally, am amiable to switching my vote on some people. Arrgh being chief among them.

Naga, given his willing claim back on D2, doesn't strike me as scum so I will be unwilling to vote there.

Monster, as I've exhaustively pointed out, is a mess interaction-wise. Given Monster's stated ability, I can understand why scum would avoid potentially wasting a nk on her as opposed to guaranteed kills elsewhere for the most part.

At the end of the day we are looking for more than one scum player. While I would greatly love to solve Monster, I don't want to take the risk that she, like Rag, was being honest and ends up being a mismatch. Instead, a lynch on a likely teammate is a better option.

This is why I prefer Arrgh. He fits the bill for being a mafia teammate give his Nader vote D1 and his reactions D2 to Zinger and I. I mean, Zinger was killed after all, and the two of us were going hard at Arrgh.


So yeah.

A vote for Arrgh is a vote for making sure that town stays in the game.

I am concerned that the supposed "willfully broken" condition of her doctor ability is not reconcilable with Zinger's NLP (and I am willing to assume she didn't account for that interaction); I am concerned about the unlikelihood of two doctors in a game of this composition, especially given that the first doctor was arguably more powerful than the default version; and I am concerned with her sudden willingness to let the game hang now, despite being active and committed while her doctor claim hadn't meaningfully been challenged.

I find tenable, if not convincing, Aaarrrgh's claim that his awkwardness with you and Zinger was the product of trying to work around his own NLP conditions, though I have never been a fan of his D1/D2 tunneling on Tevish.

I find Monster the stronger candidate. But I have to go to bed, and she doesn't have any votes yet. Aaarrrgh is tolerable, ergo:

Vote: Aaarrrgh

i'll bite

i'm willing to get behind the arrgh lynch. i agree that a monster lynch is probably more of a coinflip; lynching someone else first might give us more time to solve those interactions
as far as others, i'd guess goose is a pretty good candidate, though again that's judging mostly from lack of activity - he's been brought up multiple times by now and has yet to say anything in current day, which feels like scum trying to lurk to victory

i'm willing to hard clear tevish and soft clear naga (for now), i think the claims are believable and i'm not sure scum naga even mentions targeting kod when we know he just had his pinkie chopped off
and at this point im pretty down to just sheep kod so if it's kod then i guess i just lose which is fine

sure, let's do it
vote: arrgh

Restfully the group waited. For what, nobody knew. One restless one of the bunch continued to push though. And after a few long winded soliloquies finally the bare minimum was achieved. A lynch was held.

Vote Count 3.Final
KoD: Monster
Aaarrrgh: KoD, Sky, Amber
Mongoose: Aaarrrgh

Aaarrrgh is dead. He was Betrayal is a Disease

It is now Night 3. You have 48 hours.

Another day, another doughnut. And by that I mean another body was found in a puddle of it's own jelly filling. With the voice of urgency gone, who will step up? Who will lounge in bed? But most importantly who else could go for a jelly filled doughnut?

KoD is dead. He was Pinky's Across America.

With Six alive, it's 4 to majority and 2 to lynch. You have 96 hours.

Well that's an interesting turn of events.

KoD being hit was obviously done to discredit me, being as I was a loud proponent against him.

I'm kinda shocked that Aaarrrgh and his supposed teammates did very little to argue against his lynch. They hardly put up a fight at all.

Which implies to me that he was probably being bussed for town pants by his mates. And since we know that KoD was town (begrudgingly), that would imply that one or both of Sky or Amber is scum. Of those that lynched Aaarrrgh, Amber is the one who also was on the Rag wagon...

That's as good a hunch as any right now.

Vote: Amber

Amber and I voting for KoD is the only reason that town even caught any scum. 3 votes was the minimum threshold, and both of us voted in the hours preceding the deadline. Had either of us abstained, scum would have (essentially) won the game. So I don't think there's much of a case on us.

Instead, I would propose that the lack of any defense of Aaarrrgh is chiefly the product of his scum buddies being inactive. This approach dovetails nicely with the fact that Mongoose and Naga were absent Day 3. Plus, it serves to explain Mongoose's sudden appearance Day 2, rescuing Aaarrrgh from Zinger's interrogation (note that Zinger was killed that night).

I do agree with you, though, that mafia choosing to kill KoD is minor to moderate evidence of your alignment. I was the obvious choice if they wanted to lessen the pressure on you, as KoD was proving amenable to my case. It doesn't clear you completely, but does move you down my list of possible scum to second or third.

It's also worth noting that, contrary to KoD's earlier assertions, Naga's claim of having a roleblock is relatively safe in terms of the present game. We've managed to establish that scum has (or possibly had, now) access to 2 distinct promise-breaking abilities. We know, moreover, that some of the power roles (e.g. Rag's doctor) work via hidden promises made through the mod. So Naga, if he were scum, could fairly confidently claim Roleblocker without even materially having to lie.

Specifically, cutting off KoD's finger is a 'roleblock' in the context of this game.

Intention to Vote: Naga or Mongoose.

But I'd like to give them some time to respond.

Sky and Amber are, very much, clear to me. I'm also clear to me

That leaves Naga, Mongoose, and Monster.

With 6 alive we should be at 4-2 MyLo. From my perspective, there's a 2/3 chance of hitting scum and a 0% chance of it getting better if we NL in MyLo.

My perception, right now, is that Mongoose is very lurky. Yesterday, I was supportive of Monster because of how absurdly dangerous scum counterclaiming a PR on day 1 is, but started to turn with a sus targeting list, so it's a weaker alibi. I don't have much of a read on Naga, which itself might say something at this stage.

Relevant to me is that Aaarrrgh, at the end of yesterday, dropped a vote on Mongoose. At that stage, he could have expected a wagon to potentially form, and it would be counter to his own. It ultimately wasn't joined, but there would be little point in that if Mongoose was scum. A 3-scum team yesterday would win with a mislynch, a NL would still have gotten us another day. This suggests to me that they wouldn't logically try to bus at this stage, but rather finger an 'easy' mislynch. That would imply that Mongoose is town.

Since I have partial alibis for both Mongoose and Monster, that suggests to me that Naga is almost certainly scum. If we have three, one of the alibis is wrong, and I'm not certain which

VOTE: NAGA

Monster, who did you target last night and why wasn't it KoD, who should have had solid townpants as the wagon leader against scum in MyLo?

If Aaarrrgh did not expect to survive (which is possible, given town's 5-3 advantage), he might have thrown a vote at Mongoose explicitly in order to throw us off of the scent. In particular, it's worth noting that no-one else chose to join that wagon, nor did anyone show any interest in doing so. Which is to say, it was relatively safe.

But I think I agree that Naga seems scummier.

So do you believe that I broke my pinky promise before? I have fully claimed my role, quoted my PM, and pinky promised that it was the case. KoD took that as proof of my innocence

If you remember, I also immediately claimed what my role was in full disclosure after KoD announced that his pinky was missing. I don't see how that is something scum would want to do. I also never claimed I was a role blocker. I specifically said this:



I had originally interpreted it as a roleblocker and said that somewhere in the thread that I had thought that I was, but I don't think I have ever been deceptive about what my role is. I feel that if you're asserting that I'm lying about this you should have some evidence that I broke my pinky promise. Otherwise, what is even the point of the mechanic in the game.

In terms of my actions, I targeted Monster last night and would like to know if anything happened.

Hard disagree. I'm a psych major, and the psych of the one known scum we have does not line up with someone who doesn't want to be lynched. If Aaarrrgh knew and expected he was going to go down no matter what, then those who helped lynch him aren't cleared at all. In fact, I would say that the very idea that they are cleared is exactly what the obvious scum-ploy wants you to believe, which means either you're buying into their B.S. or you're part of the propaganda team trying to sell it. Which is it?

Let me explain it in layman's terms for you non-psych majors. On Day 2 Zinger railed known scum Aaarrrgh with facts that made him look super suspect. Scum Aaarrrgh panicked, as is evident by the fact that he was vigorously reviewing the game thread without responding to the charges (which Zinger, again, pointed out). Night 2 Zinger dies, silenced because of the heat he was bringing on Aaarrrgh. Aaarrrgh panicked because he had been caught red-handed, and then killed the person who had caught him. His lynching Day 3 was all-but assured, more a formality than anything else. Psychology tells us that a cautious player (as Aaarrrgh professes to be) caught in this no-win scenario would try to make the most of a bad situation, ergo, make one of his scummates look good by leading the charge instead of making them look bad by fighting a loosing battle. Nobody came to Aaarrrgh's aid Day 3, and even Aaarrrgh himself barely raised a (pinky?) finger in defense of himself.

No, Sky and Amber are not cleared. In fact, I am almost certain that at least one of them is scum. And as for Sky placing the minimum required "hammer" vote? Given the scenario of an assured Aaarrrgh death, that's the best place for Aaarrrgh's scumbuddy to situate themselves. If it wasn't for the fact that Amber was also on Rag's wagon (which makes me slightly more suspicious of Amber), then I'd say Sky would have been my most likely scumspect. History of repeated suspicious behavior trumps most suspicious recent behaviour, so Amber > Sky, but not by much (and I am more than willing to change that assessment based on how much Sky argues he should be cleared by his actions, which rings of scum being put off that his plan to bus Aaarrrgh for town pants didn't work).

Oh, and as for KoD?

Are you not even paying attention? KoD was the person I was most suspicious of yesterday, and I only became MORE suspicious of him when Aaarrrgh flipped scum, not LESS (as for why, see my whole argument of the psychology of doomed scumman Aaarrrgh). He was the last person I would protect.

Last Night I protected the only person who I am not suspicious of at this stage: myself.

And no, Naga, I haven't noticed any evidence of being roleblocked.

I don't feel like that makes sense. Aaarrrgh was inattentive, but the wagon that lynched him was late and small. Had those people done nothing, we would have had a NL. Had a counter-wagon been followed (and Aaarrrgh gave his team over 24 hours to pile Mongoose) the game would, potentially, be over in favor of scum. The vote was 1-1 at the last intermediate count with (at that point) Aaarrrgh and KoD on each other. Aaarrrgh just giving up and dying at that time makes NO sense. I don't believe for a moment that Aaarrrgh's fall was a deliberate sacrifice play given how little heat he was under before the last movement and how much Scum stood to gain by pushing literally anything else.

It's also particularly not rational to have assumed KoD was scum going into night when KoD was the ONLY heat on Aaarrrgh with about a day left before deadline.

Skystone and Amber acted with ~4 hours remaining in the day, from a position where there was one vote on each of two candidates. Had they, as scum, (with aaarrrgh setting up) dropped their votes on a townie, the game would be OVER. Voting Aaarrrgh at that point wouldn't be bussing, it would be playing to lose.