Ok, think think think.

I could see myself being the Naive. Especially since I turned up a ~K on Tevish which would mean 2 ~Ks. That would free up JD to be random and completely explain his switch in results on me.

Meanwhile, with respect to Goose's results, he'd have to be random. It's the only logical claim to make for him to avoid being the killer. Given the kill on Amber (between her and JD since both had ~Ks initially), I'm certain beyond a shadow of doubt that Goose is the killer.

Vote: Mongoose

Yeah, the more I look at it the more it makes sense.

Even from JD's perspective, it has to be Goose. JD could assume his first result, on me, was flipped and come up with the notion that I'm the killer while he's sane. Amber would be Naive. So far so good. That leaves Insane, Paranoid, and Random.

At the very least, either Goose is Insane or Random then. One of Tevish or Zinger would be Paranoid while the other would be the one that Goose isn't. Here is where it gets funny though. With those conditions in place, the issue arises that no matter if it is Tevish or Zinger who is Insane, it creates a contradiction between their results (which has to be true since JD's would be the first and only result that was flipped).

Goose, verifiably, can't be Insane as that would indicate Zinger as the killer, and we know he's not. That means, no matter what, there will always be a contradiction between JD (as sane) vs Tevish or Zinger's results as Insane (either of them since they would clear me). So, logically, JD can't be Sane. Random, on the other hand, would work (though I would no longer be implicated from JD's perspective).



For Tevish, he should have no issue seeing me as lock clear. I say this because I'm certainly not Insane. Goose is certainly not Insane. Amber, more than likely given the issue with JD and my results, is more than likley not Insane either (obv I'm not doing a full on hardcore proof to assert the validity of my assertion, but I'm extremely confident in its strength). Insane would have to lie with Zinger or Tevish, and no matter what they both targeted me with K results (now I should make obv that I'm string connecting this to the previous idea that Tevish more than likely wasn't flipped -- but if you do entertain the notion that your result was flipped -- despite no proof -- you'd have to explain both JD and I arguing differing results on our N0 targets). I suppose the easiest explanation is that one is random and the other is the killer, but that presents an entirely different issue:

JD, claiming the first change, would have no expectation of the change coming to light, unless he let his initial target live (possible though kinda reckless). Me, coming out to claim after JD, would put me into a straight up lock with JD.

Course you'd also have to assign the sanities then at that point. JD or I would be random (with the other being the killer). That leaves Amber as Sane or Naive (likely Naive), Zinger and Tevish to share Paranoid/Insane, and Goose as Sane though that doesn't work out given his 2 Ks (and Zinger isnt' the killer so Goose can't be Insane either). So, interestingly, this scenario is a wash for a variety of reasons (Goose not being able to be Sane/Insane and either Tevish/Zinger having to be Insane which clears me which means I'm not the killer).



I'm not interested in convincing Goose of anything. Although, I will say that is extremely funny you killed Amber first of all people, and then Zinger after the words he and I had.

So hilarious.

Tevish.

Join me.

Join me in sending Mongoose into the afterlife with Amber and Zinger.

And maybe I can convince my waifu to join us. Maybe.

That or I'll probably end up with my head separated from my body.

I got you dead to rights Mongoose.

Admit the futility of your situation.

I'll go easy on you.

Maybe.

Oh but it's elementary my dear KoD, you are clearly the killer as first you were tunneling JD and now you are trying the same on me. My ploy to draw you out with my series of random actions clearly confirms it with you now trying to tunnel me.

I can see clearly that Amber being killed first painted some shade on you, with her signature. With Zinger it was clearly a case of convenience to put more shade on you as the killer. Meaning that either 1)
you are the killer. 2) the killer is trying to make you look the killer, leading it to be JD.

Your conviction is no match for me.

And your deductions are lacking on JD and I.



You agree that someone has to be random, yes? Explain your results that you've stated then. First you say Amber is the killer, then you say Zinger isn't the killer, and you end with Tevish being the killer. That means a lot.

Let's assume you're being honest.

First, if your first result wasn't flipped, then you have to be Insane which directly means Zinger is the killer. However, that's false because Zinger is clearly an esteemed colleague of ours. Therefore your first result has to be flipped.

Now let's consider your first result being flipped. That would mean you truly got Amber as not the killer. That means you are Sane, and Tevish is the killer. If this is the case, then a cascade happens with the rest of our results. Someone else is random, Naive, Insane, and Paranoid. Zinger had only killer results so he is either Insane or Paranoid. Amber has to be the Naive one because JD and myself, by virtue of you being Sane due to your first result being flipped, have alternated results. By extension, due to our alternating results, JD and I cant be Paranoid (that'd have to be Zinger). Thus JD and I are a combination of Random / Insane.

EXCEPT our results make it impossible for Tevish to be the killer. I can't be Insane because I have two not killer results (and that only because I claimed a switch on my first target which is Tevish). So I'd have to be random to make that work. But then JD has to be Insane and, like me, he claims a switch to hist first target (me) from not killer to killer. His only other result, on you Goose, was not killer and as Insane that makes you the killer despite you having to be assumed Sane due to first result flip.

In short, your first result couldn't have been flipped or not flipped as it creates a logical inconsistency.


The ONLY option left, then, us you are random. But, again, that will create issues due to both, if we maintain Tevish as the culprit, JD and I claiming result flips and you being random.


Essentially, there is no logical way to explain your results except that you are lying.

Thus, you, Goose, are the killer.


And yes, that is elementary.

KoD: Tevish (K), Zinger (~K), Tevish (~K)
JD: KoD (~K), Goose (~K), KoD (K)
Tevish: KoD (K), Tevish (K), JD (K)
Mongoose: Amber (K), Zinger (~K), Tevish (K)
Zinger: Goose (K), KoD (K), Killed
Amber: Amber (~K), Killed

Let's have a look at this. I believe it is accurate?

I've received three Guilty results, including one on myself. The possibilities are as such
1) I am Random, and flipped "guilty" thrice
2) I am Paranoid
3) I am Insane, and my results were flipped N1, meaning KoD is the Killer

Kod's investigations feature a swap between N1 and N3. This can be explained a few ways
1) KoD is Random
2) KoD is Sane or Naive, and was targeted N1
3) KoD is a lying Killer

Goose has an Innocent result on an innocent N2 and guilty results on innocents N1 and N3. He can only be Random or the Killer from my perspective

JD has flipped results on KoD from N1 to N3. Like KoD, he could be random or flipped N1. If he was flipped N1 he could be equally sane or insane.


So, what checks out. Here are my assessments, reduced as deeply as possible.

If KoD is the killer...
JD is Sane (Flipped)
I'm Insane
Zinger was Paranoid
Goose is Random
Amber was Naive

If JD is the killer...
KoD is Sane (Flipped) or Naive (Flipped)
I'm Paranoid
Goose is Random
Zinger was Insane
Amber was Sane or Naive

If Goose is the Killer
KoD is Sane (Flipped), or Naive (Flipped)
JD is Random
I'm Insane
Zinger was Paranoid
Amber was Naive or Sane

From where I'm sitting, these all look possible, but are all pretty precise. We have one more night. We should take one more night. Here are some implications

I'm paranoid -- not Insane -- only if JD is the killer. If I investigate Goose or KoD and it comes back "Not the killer", I can be certain that they're the killer. If I receive "Killer" on Goose or KoD, I know they're innocent as I'm either paranoid (JD Killer) or Insane (The other is the killer). There's no point in me performing any other investigation

Unless he is the killer, KoD could be either Sane or Naive and was flipped N1; random is always needed to explain results elsewhere. If he receives a "Guilty" result on Goose or JD, he should know they're the killer, but receiving "Innocent" doesn't clear them to him

Mongoose can only be Random or the Killer. His results can be discarded.

JD can be the Killer, Sane, or Random. IF he's sane, KoD is the killer while if he's random Goose is the killer. If JD investigates KoD, he will get guilty if he's sane and may if he's Random. If he investigates KoD and gets innocent, he's random and goose is the killer

I feel like there might be an investigation pattern we can engage in to guarentee disambiguation over both lies and a death, but I can't work it out just now.

VOTE: PASS

This was erroneous, as my later analysis shows. I could be Insane without KoD being the killer. Flips were "needed" elsewhere.

Wait, I screwed up

If KoD is the killer both I and JD had to be flipped. That can't happen. KoD can't be the killer, it's between Goose and JD

It's not JD either.

Random is still alive. It has two possible hosts. Whichever one isn't Random is the killer.

The Killer knows KoD's Sanity.

The Killer is hosed if KoD is sane.

I have the ability to perfectly disambiguate the identity of the killer given another night, but KoD can't unless he's sane. The last town player is Random.

Getting another night doesn't help, because I am guaranteed to die and KoD must 1) guess right and 2) be sane in order to bullseye the killer. I think a smart killer would have followed up and deleted him in Amber's place N1 if he were Sane, so I find it more likely that KoD is naive and thus we would receive no further information. since Goose and JD's results can be thrown out as can any Innocent result from KoD.

We might as well end it here.

UNVOTE. VOTE: MONGOOSE

I'm sure you'll agree, after having worked it out yourself, that Goose has to be random in order to not be the killer.

That leaves the rest of us to work out sanities/possible killer with a flipped result (or without if we want to talk about the killer targeting Goose N0).

Let's knock that one out first. If we assume Goose, as random, was the flipped one, then all other results can be taken at face value. Course, with JD and I claiming flips, the killer had to have targeted JD or I.

With the flip either on JD or me, we know that -- oh, yes, I already worked out Tevish can't be the killer earlier when going over Goose's results. So Insane and Paranoid rests with Tevish/Zinger. I'm clear no matter what as both Zinger and Tevish investigated me.




Yeah. Ok.

So, that leavesNaive and Sane and a killer. Amber was either Sane or Naive. I'm for sure clear, and with my claim mot being random, that would leave JD out cold.

I'm for sure not sane. No way I'd be left alive in that case