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PostPosted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 3:14 pm 
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Investigated myself. Received that I am the killer.

To me, this means I am paranoid, Random, or was targeted N0 (as per the ability on the setup thread). Most likely Paranoid.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 4:25 pm 
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Well, I investigated KoD, and he looks like just as much the Killer as Mongoose did the night before.

So either 1) I'm Paranoid and my results don't matter, or 2) I'm Random and my results still don't matter, but this assumption would require the coin to have flipped negative on both nights, or 3) I'm Insane and then both KoD and Goose are innocent, OR 4) I'm Sane and KoD is the Killer but my result on Goose was flipped Night 0.

Of these, 2 and 4 are statistically less likely than 1 or 3.

I haven't taken other's results into account yet, only my own.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 4:26 pm 
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I investigated, Zinger and he appeared Town.

Not sure what to make of the game state so far.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 6:46 pm 
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I got a town goose. Tevish's self assessment confuses me.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 7:26 pm 
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@JD I'm not sure what to make of that either.

Right now I feel pretty confident, that KoD or Tevish are most likely the killer.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 08, 2021 7:33 pm 
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What we know so far (Playername: Claimed N0 Target, Result; Claimed N1 Target, Result):

Shadow Amber (confirmed Town): N0 Shadow Amber, Innocent; N1 Unknown, Killed by Killer

Me (Zinger): N0 Mongoose, Killer; N1 KoD, Killer
Tevish: N0 KoD, Killer; N1 Tevish, Killer
JayDreven: N0 KoD, Innocent; N1 Mongoose, Innocent
Mongoose: N0 Shadow Amber, Killer; N1 Zinger, Innocent
KoD: N0 Tevish, Killer*; N1 Unknown*
*KoD was the last to reveal his results on both Days so far...


What can we determine from all this information? Let's see...

For starters, it's probably a safe assumption that somebody's results N0 were flipped. Also, somebody's results are straight up a lie, so that's 2 out of 6 N0 results that we can't trust. That's 66% reliable results. N1, on the other hand, only has 1 out of 5 results we can't trust (or 80% reliable results), given we know the Killer was busy in Amber's room. N1, therefore, is much more important than N0 in terms of useful information to be analyzed.

Tevish and I both got double naughty on two separate targets. This is interesting and perhaps useful information.
Mongoose is the only player to get different results (one Killer, one Innocent).
JayDreven is the only player to get double Innocent results. Of course, we don't know (and will never know) if Shadow would have also turned up a second Innocent result, but for now, the most likely Naive cop is JD. It's still possible that Shadow or even Mongoose are Naive instead of JD.

There's probably even more that can be gleaned from all this, but without knowing who was flipped N0 there's still too many gaps in the information to make any solid conclusions.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 1:37 am 
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*Finishes breakfast.*

You guys and your business. At least enjoy the early morning hours.

*Checks notes.*

I believe I got Zinger as being innocent.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 1:40 am 
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When time allows for me, which will probably be in seven hours, I'll dive into all this.

Cursory glance, assuming I wasn't flipped, it's either Tevish or Zinger. Course, I could always be random.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:00 am 
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Zinger: Moongoose Guilty, KoD Guilty. Cannot be Naive. Cannot be Sane unless flipped N1 (KoD is the killer in that case)
Me: KoD Guilty, Self Guilty. Cannot be Naive or Sane. Cannot be Insane unless flipped N1 (KoD is the killer in that case)
JD: KoD Innocent, Moongoose Innocent. Cannot be Paranoid. Cannot be Insane unless flipped N1 (Mongoose is the killer in that case)
Mongoose: SA Guilty, Zinger Innocent. Cannot be Paranoid. Cannot be Sane or Naive unless Flipped N1 (Killer Unknown in that case)
KoD: Me Guilty, Zinger Innocent. Cannot be Paranoid or Naive. Cannot be Sane from my perspective only unless flipped N1 (Killer unknown in that case)
Amber: Innocent on Self. Cannot be Paranoid or Insane unless flipped (which would imply scum double-tapped a P/I cop, so probably Insane if that's true?)

If we assume for each person the N1 Flip didn't hit them (though we will need to learn where it did hit), we get the following

Zinger: Paranoid/Insane/Random
Me: Paranoid/Insane/Random
JD: Naive/Sane/Random
Mongoose: Insane/Random
KoD: Insane/Random
Amber: Sane/Naive/Random

I'm seeing too many Insane cops from this, suggesting that JD is more or less in the clear; he'd have to be Sane or Naive and Amber the other.

We have more nights to disambiguate this. Since it's an open setup, we should pass until 2:1 and max info. By then the answer should be fairly cut and dry.

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I have a blog. I review anime, and sometimes related media, with an analytical focus.

I'm a (self) published author now! You can find my books on Amazon in Paperback or ebook!
The Accursed, a standalone young adult fantasy adventure.
Witch Hunters, book one of a young adult Scifi-fantasy trilogy.


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 6:39 am 
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Tevish I don't get why you keep excluding yourself from the insane pile (with the exception of your player breakdown at the bottom). Your self assessment should mirror Zingers from a town introspective, recognizing the possibility you targeted two town as insane.

I do agree we need more information to determine who was flipped/create a break in some of these mirror cases.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:37 am 
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I'm here.

I also intend on withholding my results until the last.

Because I can.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 1:47 pm 
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I'm here.

I also intend on withholding my results until the last.

Because I can.

And I now intend on holding my results until you reveal yours because I can. :bored:

Guess that would put us at an impasse for Day 3, huh?

I'm fine with ending the Day early, btw.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:36 pm 
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Oh, but Zinger. Why on earth would you ever want to do that?

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:37 pm 
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Sounds to me like you may be the killer.

gg ez game, I knew it wasn't Tevish all along.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 7:57 pm 
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Oh, but Zinger. Why on earth would you ever want to do that?

Because you opened up the game asking me to spill it for no reason whatsoever, leading everyone to believe you had a negative result on me when you didn't, and intend to let everyone else reveal results before you do for three days in a row, which is definitely a scumtell.

So nah. I can't let you get away with all that.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 8:26 pm 
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Alright, I've done my note taking. Nothing really pops as different than anything else that's been said today.

Vote: Skip

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 9:04 pm 
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 9:43 pm 
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Vote: Skip

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 2:43 pm 
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Be nice if we could get more action on this skip vote yo.

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 2:47 pm 
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gdi, Storm got me hooked on that song.

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