Ah Naga with the lie to game Tevish's ability to reassign/switch sanities.

@Zinger: Does your NLP apply to Dethy, with or without modification?



I strongly believe (As I START to write this post) that KoD is a cultist, due in part to Aaarrrgh's investigation reversal on him, and arguably his reversal on himself. Since Sane and Insane are immune, that would mean he started Naive. So let me go through the theories regarding this...

OPTION 1: CL
So, day 1 (where presumably nothing was manipulated) we had two Nice results: KoD on himself and CL on Zinger. Zinger got Naughty on CL as did Aaarrrgh, and I got a Naughty on KoD.

Here's my theory: CL is Krampus the Cult Master and KoD (originally naive) was culted between D1 and D2. Specifically, I surmise that the culting action takes place AFTER investigation, with regards to other investigations. KoD lied about his results to provide CL the ability to hide perfectly as naive. What would this mean?

In this case, Zinger and Aaarrrgh both had naughty results on scum d1, making them Sane and Paranoid. Since Aaarrrgh later got a Nice on KoD, that would make him Sane and Zinger paranoid. I would be insane. This doesn't bear out. If I'm the insane cop, I should have gotten Nice on CL last night, and if Zinger were Paranoid, he would not have been immune to Culting.

OPTION 2: AAARRRGH
In this case, everyone has investigated town the whole game. CL would be Sane, Zinger would be Insane, and I would be Paranoid. This is wholly logical

OPTION 3: Myself
I know this is false, but for the sake of argument: it's the exact same to an outsider as "Aaarrrgh is Krampus"

Personally, I am inclined to believe that one of Aaarrrgh and KoD is the Original Krampus and the other is a Cultist -- most likely, Aaarrrgh Krampus and KoD cultist. "CL is Krampus" is not an acceptable option given what we know, and since as per d1 I had to be Sane Cop for KoD to be the Original Krampus, I don't think he is either. In theory it could be Zinger but that really feels entirely off.

I am prepared to commit to a vote on Aaarrrgh. CL's result would have to be pretty explosive to 'bust' this for me.

At the terrible risk of hurting my case, Tevish, I'm going to say no. I have never used my NLP in a Dethy game.

From Christmas Rumble 1:

No, that's understandable. Playing Dethy pretty much REQUIRES lying if you're dealt scum (since you need to claim results) so I was kind of expecting that it wasn't in effect.

But, for the heck of it, I'll take that as a sign to do the dilligence. Again, assuming KoD is a cultist as seems extremely likely to me, and that what we've been told of the Krampus Kult is true...

IN THIS SCENARIO:
Aaarrrgh must be either Sane or Insane
CL Must be Naive or Insane
KoD must have started Naive (meaning CL would be Insane) or Sane if there were no immunity
I must be Insane or Paranoid (so, Paranoid)

That results in
Zinger: Krampus
Tevish: Paranoid
Aaarrrgh: Sane
KoD: Naive
CL: Insane

Or, if there's no immunity

CL: Naive
Tevish: Paranoid
Aaarrrgh: Insane
KoD: Sane

In the first case, Aaarrrgh's results don't support him being Sane Santa; CL returned Naughty and was neither Krampus nor culted
In the second case, there's no reason for Insane Aaarrrgh to have flipped off "nice" on KoD if he's a cultist, or onto it if he wasn't.

Neither scenario is logical. Therefore, you, Zinger, shouldn't be able to be Krampus

This means since Zinger is exonerated by investigation noise, CL by contradiction, and KoD by my inability to be the Sane Santa, from the perspective of the rest of the game Krampus must be myself or Aaarrrgh. From my perspective, it's Aaarrrgh.

KoD was Naive and started coughing up "naughty" results because he was culted.
CL is Sane, but has only ever investigated town
Zinger is insane, because he immuned Cult
I am Paranoid.

I see no other way things could play out, and based on Zinger's intel the game will end with my culting if we go into Night.

VOTE: AAARRRGH

Arrgh, this is important.


At this point Tevish is pursuing some odd ends wrt to the results. Small example: He assumes I'm cultists (fine) and that the stuff about the cult is true (that is, Zinger's claims are true). Even if you assume i was culted at game start, you still have a result from Zinger to trust, and CL's result.
The reasoning follows because Sane and Insane are immune to cult, thus CL (with the only Nice result) must be Sane or Insane. Zinger can't be Sane as that implies CL is not a Santa. CL could be Sane which means Zinger is Insane from game start. Knowing that, either you or Tevish is the Paranoid one while the other is Krampus. All this ignores result switches on various days (you can exclude my statement if you think I'm culted). Your switch, however, either happened or you're Krampus.

I, personally, don't believe any of that since I was never told I was culted. If the same is true of you, then you can either help me lynch Zinger/wait on CL to break the current state of things, or you can go with what Tevish/Zinger are on.

@tevish: Zinger is only exonerated if you believe him that there is a cult. I don't believe him.

Also, if I was a cult leader who had already successfully converted KoD, why would I not have lynched CL yesterday? That should have basically guaranteed my win. Instead I hesitated and tried to avoid a lynch. Please explain how you rationalize that when you accuse me.

Also:
vote: zinger

On Zinger if there is NOT a Cult

"Zinger is Krampus"
No avoiding it, I'm Paranoid.
CL would be Naive I guess since he doesn't have any Naughty results?
You and KoD would be sane and insane, presumably in that order, with KoD millerized for round 2 of investigations.

But then we must question: Why no deaths?

I'm strongly inclined to believe the Cult story. It's too weird and specific to really come out of Zinger without some grounding, even without his NLP. That would be more of a me play, like when I went and transformed into Moon Knight in Spider Man 3 (not that it helped). And aside from that I have the kind of insider knowledge from last year, as I've said, that such a thing was at least considered.

Yes, and you floated the idea in the thread, so it's not like Zinger pulled it out of thin air. I have already offered an alternative explanation for the lack of kills (Arsonist Krampus), not to mention that there could be any number of other reasons. As I know I am not Krampus, and I have no reason to believe that I have been culted, Zinger lying is by far the most likely scenario from my perspective.

Also, where the heck is CL?

The lack of deaths certainly means something is going on. I do not doubt that all.

Wrt to Zinger's claims, I've considered them true to no avail. To which his response is i must be culted. That's fine, but just what are we are talking about here? Krampus with the ability to cult? With an ability to alter results (wrt to just Arrgh if you think k i am cult)?

The only way that fits is if Zinger is Insane and CL is sane. And even then, what was I doing? Gamethrowing as cult by self voting myself? What was Arrgh doing by not pushing a lynch on CL with Tevish to not only remove CL, but completely guarantee my survival in case another vote came my way?


My overall problem is that Zinger's scenario supposes A LOT. Other scenarios do not require that much wrt to assu.ptions to come to a logical conclusion.

One thing Zinger has argued is that we just don't know. As if by not knowing we can disregard what has happened up to this point. That doesn't work. Actions matter just as much as the words we speak.

For Arrgh and I, Zinger lying seems much more likely as opposed to what he's supposing. That's all there is.

I would also like to know this.

@Tevish:

Question. In your diligent attempt to address the other side, you assume a Zinger Krampus AND that the cult claim is true (from Krampus). Why?

As in, why believe anything the Krampus has said? To add to that, why can't I be sane and thus immune to cult? I feel that's fair to ask since you consider Zinger's claims as true despite considering him to be Krampus. Thus, why, with a flip in results, can't I be the proven Sane Santa while CL, with only a nice result, is the naive?

Sorry. We interrupt this regularly schedule broadcasted dethy game to inform all of you that


YES! TOBEY MACGUIRE IS BACK AS SPIDER-MAN IN TOM HOLLANDS NEXT INSTALLMENT.

And now back to the Dethy.

@KoD I have never said disregard what has happened up to now. I have said that assuming what has happened has not been tampered with is unwise.

I will remind you all that we have no idea what Krampus' Krazy Kult does. It might not be a cult in the traditional sense, where the leader and culted work together in private to overthrow or indoctrinate the rest.

For all we know, being a member of this Krazy Kult gives you a randomized sanity each Night, thus showing incredible discord while Krampus sits idly by and watches with bending amusement.

Part of me still wants to believe CL is Krampus, but we've mostly disproved that by virtue of my having to be insane. Still... his silence is deafening.

That's sowing discord and benign amusement***

Like KoD, you could have been culted Night 1 and not know it, and all your results since could be in question.

But then why would I also have contradicting results?
One of us would have to be the real krampus, because we can't both be unwitting accomplices. But then why didn't either of us try to cause a mislynch yesterday when the opportunity was there? What do you think we were trying to accomplish?

You need to give Zinger more time to come up with something farfetched.

And if you are speaking from the perspective that I'm a Santa or in anyway honest, then you have to take me at my word that my results are as I stated them.

Could they have been messed with? Sure, and I'm positive I've covered such circumstances.

Yet, the possibility exists that I am a Sane Santa, and that you are Krampus. You don't have to like it.

KoD did try to cause a lynch yesterday. KoD's actions directly lead to a potential forced lynch scenario.

And if I am Krampus, why didn't I cause a mislynch yesterday? I was around at Day's end. In fact, I was the last person to post before the Day ended, and I was complaining about the fact that some people were trying to force a lynch.

You can't have it both ways. You can't present "Why didn't I mislynch?" as evidence without affording me the same benefit, thus the argument is moot.