Yo ho ho. You know what this is. You know what this is about. Tis the season. Tis the Christmas Dethy game. Let's get at it.

For the record, here's the details:

There will be five players. Four of them will be town aligned Santa Clees (that's the plural, look it up). Each Santa will be an investigative role. Each investigative role will have a separate sanity. One player will be Krampus. The full extent of their role, as always, will not be revealed until the end of the game.

Standard mafia rules will apply for posting and voting. Deadlines will be hard and lynches will be held on most votes at deadline. No lynch isn't a player and can't be voted for, but each player may state their desire to end day early without a lynch. If there is a unanimous consensus, the day will end early without a lynch.

Let's start the sign ups.

Players
1. KoD
2. Tevish
3. Aaarrrgh
4. Zinger
5. CL

Investigated KoD.

Naughty.

Investigated CL. Also Naughty.

This is very interesting. Because I also investigated CL, and also got a naughty result.

So, barring Krampus doing a weird thing (Krampus has always had a power in these) CL can only be Santa if I'm Sane and KoD is Krampus.

That's a hell of a place to "be in" but I suspect interference.

It is also possible that Zinger (or I, from your perspective) could be lying, and therefore krampus. Or you could be the lying krampus. No one is off the table yet.

Or, you know, one of me, aaarrrgh, or Zinger is Krampus. That's also possible. I am dumb.

I investigated zinger and I got Nice

Alright gents. Let's get this party started.

I investigated myself and got nice.

So far we have two results in me, two on CL, and one in Zinger.

Person: Target (Result)

CL: Zinger (Nice)
Arrgh: CL (Naughty)
Zinger: CL (Naughty)
Tevish: KoD (Naughty)
KoD: KoD (Nice)


My instant impression is that Krampus is among Arrgh, Zinger, or Tevish.

Let's break things down.

First, CL. Both Arrgh and Zinger have Naughty results on him which means: 1) CL is town and Zinger/Arrgh are a combination of Paranoid/Insane, or 2) CL is Krampus and Arrgh/Zinger are some combination of Sane/Paranoid.

Concerning 1), the remaining mental states are sane and naive. In this case Tevish would have to be sane for his Naughty result on me, and CL would be Naive. That makes me Krampus. This, however, is not the scenario given my perspective.

Concerning 2), the remaining mental states are Insane and Naive. This, for me, fits better as it explains Tevish's Naughty result on me.

I'll be back with more assuming there is more to break down. Otherwise I'll just declare my intent to see the day end early.

Did a quick check, and for an outside observer no one is discounted from the possibility of being scum, but Tevish and I are slightly more likely from a pure statistics standpoint. Because no one targeted either of us, we have less information about the cases where we are scum, and there are thus more possible role breakdowns where one of us is scum. But it's not a very big difference, Tevish and I each have a 2/7 chance of being scum for a neutral observer, everyone else has 1/7. From my perspective, Tevish is 40% scum everyone else is 20%. From his perspective things look the same, except I'm the bigger target of course. For everyone else, Tevish and I each have a 1/3 shot at being scum while the other players have 1/6. So we really don't have the numbers to either free or shoot anyone today. I don't think there's anything else to say.

I wish I had thought of investigating myself; that's actually a pretty smart move, KoD.

I'm trying to wrap my head around your analysis, KoD, but I keep finding loopholes. Let's assume that I buy that A) KoD isn't Krampus, and B) no Krampus Shenanigans took place last night.

If CL is Santa, then that makes me Insane or Paranoid, but if CL is Krampus then I am Sane or Paranoid. Both of those scenarios require me to assume a 50% chance of being Paranoid, but Aaarrrgh's second result of Naughty on CL makes things interesting. Aaarrrgh could, of course, be Krampus, but if I am to assume he is not, then that makes Aaarrrgh the other half of my In/Sane or Paranoid pairing, depending on CL's identity. So far so good.

Concerning 1) CL is Santa and Argh and I are Paranoid/Insane. According to you, this makes Tevish Sane and you Krampus, which you immediately debunk as impossible, but I don't follow how you got there. Wouldn't you sooner say Tevish is Krampus and you are Sane in this scenario? Agreed that CL becomes Nice here.

Concerning 2) CL is Krampus and Argh and I are Sane/Paranoid. Tevish is Insane for his Naughty result on you and you are Naive. This adds up but requires some assumptions to get there.



From my perspective, any one of you could still be Krampus.

CL is Krampus
I am Sane or Paranoid
Argh is Sane or Paranoid
Tevish is Insane
KoD is Naive

KoD is Krampus
I am Insane or Paranoid
Argh is Insane or Paranoid
Tevish is Sane
CL is Naive

Argh is Krampus
I am Insane or Paranoid
Tevish is Insane or Paranoid
KoD is Sane or Naive
CL is Sane or Naive

Tevish is Krampus
I am Insane or Paranoid
Argh is Insane or Paranoid
KoD is Sane or Naive
CL is Sane or Naive



And the obligatory Devil's Advocate (possible from your perspectives)
I am Krampus
Argh is Insane or Paranoid
Tevish is Insane or Paranoid
KoD is Sane
CL is Naive



All of this assumes no Krampus Shenanigans, which we could very well have had.

Someone refresh my memory, in past Christmas Dethys, what could Krampus do?

NINJA EDIT: Yeah, agree Argh, we need more information.

The Krampus abilities I remember from previous games were reversing everyone's results for a single night and making a single person show as naughty in all investigations. There might have been something else too, but those are the ones that stuck with me.

@Zinger:

1) The focus is on the implication. Given the scenario (CL is Santa), then the consequence is that I must be Krampus. Why would I ever admit to that? That's why I made a point to say from my perspective, that cannot be the case (as opposed to anyone else looking in which case it is a valid scenario). My focus is on giving my thoughts throughout all of this.

2) All scenarios require assumptions. You're not saying anything new. My 1 and 2 are simply scenarios detailing whether or not CL is/is not Krampus. The assumptions are apparent. The consequences that follow are apparent. You pointing out that assumptions must be made to get to that point is no different than me pointing out that you have to assume different things to get to certain points.


The main thing is looking for valid scenarios. As long as they are valid, they are not to be discounted.


Your list exhausts what could be (no point concerning ourselves with a possible Krampus ability at this point).

I'm all for ending the day.

I'm all for ending the day.

That way JD can see it.

We could lynch Kod. Last one to claim and he investigated himself.

"Given the scenario (CL is Santa), then the consequence is that I must be Krampus."

But that's not true. As I pointed out in my post to you, if you accept the scenario that CL is Santa, and Argh and I are Paranoid and Insane respectively, then Tevish, not you, could still be the dirty party. My question to you was why would you suggest that you must be Krampus in scenario 1, when A) Tevish could still be Krampus and you're ignoring that, and B) you ostensibly know you're not Krampus, therefore in your mind, if scenario 1 were proven true, that should confirm Tevish as Krampus to you.

Am I not making sense? Your suggested Scenario 1 doesn't result in a consequence of you being Krampus. It results in a consequence of you or Tevish being Krampus. I don't know why you, as hypothetical Krampus, would not choose to throw shade on Tevish, so I must accept that you're probably confused? Maybe? Probably not alignment indicative... But yeah, don't muddy the waters. You're trying to say Scenario 1 is impossible in your perspective because Scenario 1 = KoD is Krampus, but I'm saying that's just not a given even if we assumed Scenario 1 were true.

We could also lynch you. Double-negative results PLUS you're arguing that a lynch is a good idea toDay....

@Zinger:



Well, let's see. CL is assumed Santa. There are two negative results on him (one from you and one from Arrgh). With two negative results on a town, that takes up Paranoid (always Naughty) and Insane (Naughty result on Santa). That leaves Sane and Naive of which CL would have to be one (due to his Nice result on Zinger).

Tevish can never be Naive. So he's either Sane (I'm Krampus), or he's Krampus.

Yes, you are right. That is another consequence of CL being Santa.


You are making sense, it's just my approach to thinking on it is more messy than a clean "Consider this person as Krampus" approach. Eventually I'll reach that point given enough time (thinking in the messy way as opposed to a more neat way).

Course, that's why I said what you posted exhausted all the options.

Double negative results isn't a reason and how do you think we're going to solve this mechanically anyway when we don't even know krampus's ability.

We're certainly not going to solve it by shooting without anything relatively close to a definitive answer.