That all sounds familiar and reasonable. Thanks PK.

Confirminate.

Miss y'all lets have...fun?...arguments?.......BOTH?

Vote: Zinger because I CAN (kind of, sort of, not really)

Vote: Zinger (because it won't do anything)

Here's a better question since you seem to be playing both sides. Do you prefer a death today via Arrgh or no death via recall?

I assume you're talking to Naga, but: in the best case, where Arrgh is a townie, they can kill a person at random (unless they know something we don't?). Not killing anyone until we have at least some information seems more prudent.

Information is our best asset as town, and while a random death is just that (random) it is still better than no death happening at all (outside of the mafia kill). The town has a lynch for a reason, granted we are in a special case where one person controls it. Still better than no death, otherwise we start day 2 in a pseudo day 1 state due to lack of information generated from deaths.

Ultimately, we really need Aarrgh to make some claim about their powers as "The One".

The rynch vs. no-lynch is always an interesting theory debate. Essentially, if you believe that info roles exist and are useful, you should favor no-lynch over a random lynch to get more time to build evidence. This is essentially reduced to its purest form in Dethy, where the expectation is that there is going to be one and only one lynch, occurring in LyLo. On the other hand, it's mathematically sound that in the absence of any other source of information, blind lynching should result in a town victory more often than a scum victory in a "standard" Mafia game. I remember, in particular, that Px2's town winrate was significantly worse than what you would expect by pure random for a while, and that really annoyed someone... Alhyis maybe?

In my opinion, though, there's a factor that the math, both pro-rynch and pro-no-lynch miss: deduction. WIFOM issues or no, deduction is the bread and butter of mafia. We need to be able to figure out who's lying and establish a network of interconnections in order to detect scum, and to that end flips are useful, especially flips that the mafia did not have undisputed control over. Even with that, though, there's a valid argument that the day 1 flip isn't incredably useful. Certainly, since D1s tend to be kind of slow and the scum team hasn't done anything yet, a D1 flip is the least useful single flip. In general, in a standard mafia game, D1 is the only lynch I'd seriously consider sacrificing.

Whether to do it or not depends somewhat on math. With 12 players, we expect the general layout to be 9-3 or maybe 8-3-1 or 8-2-1. It's dangerous to metagame a PK game, but let's just take the simplest case, 9-3, and use it as an example. If we mislynch until Lylo and lynch d1, the layout looks something like this N1 8-3, D2 7-3, N2 6-3, D3 5-3. Mislyncing d3 in this scenario is gg. If we skip the d1 lynch, the pattern would be N1 9-3, D2 8-3, N2 7-3, D3 6-3, N3 5-3, and then D4 starts at 4-3 LyLo. If the town/scum division is fairly normal, we get an extra day by no-lynching somewhere and D1 is probably the "best" place to do it. Theoretically, the "gain of 1 day" holds true if we make correct lynches, since each correct lynch delays Game Over by a full day (For instance, going from 4-3, to 4-2, to 3-2 from NK)

All the same, I don't think I've ever seen a game go for the D1 No-lynch, even if it seems to work out "mathematically" for a really common layout. Instead, the meta always seemed to be to let the game get into the 5-3 scenario and NL there to get the extra day with better 'hit' odds, even though that's the point where more town roles that could help are dead.


... all of which is more or less shooting the breeze, since in this particular scenario we have a substantive choice D1 that means more than simply lynching or not lynching. I want to hear from Aaarrgh.

Hi everyone! Glad to see I'm the focus of attention!
My power as The One are limited to simply controlling the D1 lynch (unless there is more to it that I haven't been told yet). There is more to my role, but that is separate from me being The One.

I'm currently very much in the dark about both the long term effects of my position and anyone's alignment (except my own, of course: I'm town). So I'm not going to take any drastic action, and will listen to all of you before I place my vote. In fact, I'm happy to treat my powers as though they don't exist and simply following the majority decision unless a very good reason to go rouge shows up.

Okay, we should probably at least wait for the people who haven't posted yet.

Ragnarokio
shadow amber
Zinger2099
NeoSilk

I still lean toward Recall/No Lynch in the face of no information, but it doesn't matter too much.

Honestly the best case scenario is to just treat it like a normal lynch but with the extra information of Aaarrgh being given the chance to either side with the vote or go rogue in his kill. He can do whatever he wants (though I would prefer he go with the majority opinion of course) and we can decide what to do with that depending on how the rest of the day goes.

As long as he continues his claim of not wanting to end the day early/asap/randomly I see no reason to just not treat this like a normal day 1.

I will preface this by saying that I in no way think Aarrgh is scummy and believe Aarrgh's assertion that he is town aligned, and I have no desire to lynch Aarrgh at all. I believe the ability Aarrgh has is dangerous and should be recalled.

I think the executory power is much in the favour of scum, regardless of who is the One. If Aarrgh turned out to be not town aligned, we may not know right away. Day 1 and Day 2 Aarrgh might follow our advice and lynch our suggestion, but if on Day 3 we choose scum to be lynched, maybe he will decide to reveal himself. Again, I'm not arguing that Aarrgh is scum in any way, just that this is a dangerous power to have floating around. If Aarrgh is town aligned, he still could be led to agree with scum over the town and lynch someone without a majority. Even if Aarrgh never does that and always follows majority's advice, why should the power be floating around anyways?

If PK had, instead of anointing Aarrgh as the One, given us the ability to choose the One with the same ability, would we have chosen Aarrgh? On what basis would we do that? It's seemly random. In that case, if we would not have chosen Aarrgh, why would we be okay with leaving supreme power with Aarrgh?

I generally agree that day 1 lynches are best. However, I agree with Tevish_Szat that we have a substantive choice here other than not lynching. This is also a PK game, so who knows if Aarrgh will even be the One after Day 1?

There are meta aspects to consider. For example, I believe Arrgh to be a courteous player. Will he shy away from killing a source forum player all other factors being equal?

Also, a good question would be who would we elect instead if we were to elect The One instead of unelecting?

PK likes putting a loaded gun on the stage D1 to immediately give the players a topic to talk about. Arrgh probably serves that purpose, and so I think its plausible that arrgh is telling the truth when he says he can only control the kill on the first day. Day 1 voting records are a good information source and so i think its better to have us vote on who to lynch and maybe get some competing wagons rather than giving arrgh control, this might change slightly based on PK's answer to the following questions though:

@PK:: Is The One confirmed town? Will you lie to people in this game? Is there a deadline on revoking The One's authority?

I'm also going to role claim right off the bat because my role is extremely anti-town. I'm a miller and anybody who targets me at night will also become a miller, so don't target me, probably.

I'll also ask this

@Arrgh: Are you find voting for relinquishing your own powers given that voting records are good for gaining information in subsequent days?

Also, regardless of whether we decide to revoke Arrgh's powers, we should probably still vote on who arrgh should kill. I vote for zinger

Vote: Zinger

Re: Questions

The One is not confirmed town.

This game is not a "bastard" game.

There is no deadline.

This is not actually the same scenario. Us choosing "The One" vs. having "The One" chosen by the Matrix/GM are completely different. I'm inclined to believe that Aaarrrgh is not scum (and if they aren't town, they probably some weird 3rd-party role). In any case, it's almost definitely not random.

If it's a Day 1 thing only, then it seems fine. (If it turns out not to be, we might have to reevaluate). Unvote: Recall


Hmm, that's exactly what you would say if it were. :thinking:

Hey, you know who hasn't posted (besides shadow amber and NeoSilk): "Vote": Zinger (that's 4 so far)

With that information given i'm going to Vote: Recall

As i said earlier, voting records provide invaluable information when analyzed later in the game. For this reason, lyncihng day 1 via vote should be a lot more helpful in the longrun than lynching day 1 via argh's decision. As such, i'll ask that everybody vote to recall. I'd like for anyone who doesn't to provide a good reason not to.

Wait, my understanding was that this wasn't an option.

• Aaarrrgh kills someone (they can do this at any time)
• There are 9 Recall votes

I don't think we can lynch someone after recalling Aaarrrgh.

Also, if Aaarrrgh goes against the majority vote (or doesn't wait for one), that gives us a lot of information about them and/or "The One".