Depends on the format IMO. If the format is slow (KTK, DOM, M19), keeping a 2-lander is correct because you're much less likely to get run over. If the format is fast (ORI, KLD, AKH), keeping a 2-lander that doesn't do much can spell death for you.

Disappointing end to Dominaria drafting for me. 3-3 in my final run. Two losses came to disconnect (...), the last one came against an opponent with Lyra Dawnbringer. I did allow myself to get blown out by Adamant Will - probably shouldn't have, since my Darigaaz with a Song of Freyalise counter > his Lyra - and near the end I misclicked a removal spell as well. But opponent had The Eldest Reborn together with main deck Tragic Poet, and he played well, so can't really complain. Still disappointing however, and no 7-win run in Dominaria for me. It'll be a few more days before I have the gold for another draft run, and it'll be a new format too.

AD, hitting your 4th land on time with a two lander has "good" odds? I would think that mulling to 6 with scry gives you better odds at hitting 4 on time, no?

where's DJ? He should be able to crunch this for me

Thing is, in arena only the 7 card hand has the starting hand algorithm. Once you mill, you start seeing the all land/no land hands more often.
I'll keep most 2 Landers if I have my colours and at least 1 or 2 castable spells.

Algorithm?

oh that's right, i completely forgot about the algorithm. I didn't want to trigger DJ

Vert, there's this thing to mitigate mana-screw put in where behind the scenes, the game draws TWO opening hands for you and picks the one with more appropriate mana for the land count in your deck, and then shows you one of them. So you have practically a zero chance of drawing zero or all land in your opener since you'd have to do it TWICE

Drafting like a noob..

So I've blown my gold on 2 DOM drafts and the performance was awful. My first deck wasn't good (I think), but I want to know, if this deck should've won more:



This felt like one of my best draft decks so far (record being 6 wins in M19), but I went 1-3. One of those losses was embarassing and never should've happened for I decked myself when I could've ended the game maybe 10 turns earlier. I just never checked my remaining library. But for the other 2 losses, I am at (yet another ) loss. No easy excuses like mana or certain bombs against me. Are there any glaring issues or potential mismatches?
The last game was against a RG deck that killed me before I could do much.

Is this a real, actual thing that's been confirmed or just some anecdotal nonsense like what I heard on the Duels forum?

we didn't make it up

For better or worse, it's real and appears to be here to stay: https://mtgarena.community.gl/forums/threads/347

AFAIK:

Assuming a 33 card deck after drawing, with 15 lands left in it (so 2 lands in hand):

draws......1.......2.......3......4
1 land.....45%..70%...83%...91%
2 lands............20%...43%..61%
3 lands......................9%...24%

A mull to 6 has a ~54% chance to have 2 lands or less, ~29% chance to have 3 lands and around 17% chance to have more than 3 lands. So it's a coinflip on the hand, though you're slightly more likely to have the same amount or less lands while also having one less spell.

Huh. Well, there you go. Wish I knew that, that may affect my deck construction philosophies.

Keep in mind that it's only used for Bo1 games.

A long time ago in far away forum, there was some random dude who said this:

So yes, if you are only playing BO1 or Quick Competitive you should build your mana base accordingly, and if you want optimal mana you should build a slightly different mana base for BO3

AD, thanks for sharing the math! Did you put input the impact of the SCRY tho?

remember we want to investigate the probabilty of hitting the 4th land drop on schedule

Bumping this to the front since DOM is the current QD format

Currently 2-0 with Simic Ramp, topping off with Grunn, In Bolas's Clutches, and Sylvan Awakening.

How are we back at Dominaria again? What about HOU, Ixalan, Rivals, etc?

EDIT: I can't ever seem to draft Dominaria right, and somehow always seem to end up with 3-color monstrosities. The last one somehow managed to reach 5 wins, though.

It will be DOM for two weeks now followed by RIX-RIX-XLN.

I wanna try it later, too. If only to pick some rare dual lands.

Funny, I went with simic ramp too (also with gruun, in bolas' clutches and Sylvan awakening, but also got a tatyova and thorn elemental.)
Went with 18 land. 1-0 so far, how did your run go?