I meant that Skellige discard evidently isn't one of those decks that go all-out to win round 1, pass round 2 without playing, and then aim to win round 3, so losing round 1 to them isn't that bad. Like, if you're unhappy to win round one down two cards, that's good enough indication!
What's unusual about the second example is that, so far, I've been quite comfortable passing. My sample size isn't that big, but a combination of these factors make me satisfied:
1) I've not used any weather. There're only two rounds left now, which with the typical 4x weather, is enough to force my opponent to take 4 damage / turn through one Clear Skies effect, especially with Caranthir / Frightener move effects.
2) I'm up one card.
3) I've not used any gold cards, while he has used one (the most powerful discard effect, too).
4) I probably have 4 points of carryover into round 2.
Clearly, one of us is wrong. It could be me since my sample size against Skellige discard isn't that big. What do divinevert & Hakeem think?
Skellige is not an all-out win round 1 deck, but it still likes winning round 1. Having won round 1, Skellige can dictate the tempo round 2, make up for the lost card with Udalryk (which Skellige has an easier time finding a window for that the opposing faction's spy) and possibly even get ahead with a well-timed pass thanks to high-power swing plays. While Monsters prevents one of them effectively (Clan Tuirseach Skirmishers), Skellige has enough others (Captains, Coral) to find a good point to pass in general.
In our case, while you probably have 4 points of carryover, Skellige pretty much has 9; two from Morkvarg and seven from Cerys (who will enter round 2 at some point thanks to her counter being at 1). And while I arguably am down two golds (since I won't ever be playing Cerys from my hand) I'm also up two Silvers (since the Crones are down; Morkvarg is technically still there but he's not worth many points by himself and basically there to help the Cerys timer).
It's quite possible that the match-up has enough play in it for both players that it comes down to personal preference. A round 1 win is worth slightly more than being up one card in my mind (though in our case that advantage might be gone depending on how highly you value gold cards vs. silver/bronze cards), and while I like my chances in the scenario, it's possibly still close.