After seven straight wins, I'm feeling enough better about the changes I made to post them as an updated version of my
original list. Still room for improvement, obviously.
Fireball - You! (v. 2.0) (
)
(Ramp)Threats2x
Sylvan Advocate3x
Lambholt Pacifist/
Lambholt Butcher1x
Nissa, Vastwood Seer/
Nissa, Sage Animist2x
Tireless Tracker1x
Reclamation Sage2x
Mina and Denn, Wildborn1x
Woodland Bellower1x
Ulvenwald Hydra1x
Chandra, Flamecaller1x
Omnath, Locus of Rage1x
Ulamog, the Ceaseless HungerRamp/Healing3x
Retreat to Kazandu4x
Nissa's Pilgrimage3x
Explosive Vegetation2x
Nissa's RenewalFireballs3x
Ravaging Blaze3x
Rolling ThunderLands (26)8x
Mountain9x
Forest2x
Rootbound Crag2x
Cinder Glade4x
Evolving Wilds1x
Rogue's PassageStrategy is the same as
my first post, and explanations for the changes and descriptions of my matches since
can be found here.
Matchup ThoughtsHaving now played 30-ish games with this deck, I'd like to go back and see if I met my original goal - building a deck that was favored against White/x Humans, Blue/x Mill, Four-Color Walkers, B/W/x Control, and G/R Ramp. I'll rank match-ups by favorability, along with some comments on each. I've lumped similar decks together, so
,
, and
aggro/midrange will collectively be called
aggro/midrange, etc.
Overwhelming Favorite: Mill - Any mill deck that's splashing colors to acquire more sweepers (and cutting counterspells) gets destroyed. They could know our deck list and hand-pick their opening seven; we'd probably still win.
Strong Favorite: Aggro/Midrange - Trying to beat us down with 3 and 4-drop creatures alongside efficient removal for our (nonexistent) small threats is not an effective plan. We just go bigger, and we can do it while stabilizing without much difficulty.
Walkers - Their mana is a disaster and they try to make up for it by establishing so much recurring value that they can grind the opponent into oblivion. Unfortunately for them, they're not very aggressive, and they can't stop fireballs.
Slight Favorite: Mill - The question is whether they can blow us out with a counterspell on a fireball. There's a lot of passing back and forth while slowly getting milled out and hoping they tap low. They can't afford to counter our ramp, though. That means we can get enough mana to cast a threat, and if it gets countered, fireball their face. This match-up gets much worse if they run zero creatures and
Ravaging Blaze is a dead card.
3-Drop Creatures - All of our creatures are bigger than theirs and our payoffs are all meaningful, but their tempo plays can let them push through a lot of damage. They can also play counterspells, which we're hoping not to see.
Ramp - We have the same spells, except our payoffs all have haste. Probably within a turn either way,
Retreat to Kazandu is the best card in the match-up on both sides.
Control - They have lifegain, a meaningful clock, and removal that can efficiently take out our threats. They also deal themselves a lot of damage, and often play too conservatively, expecting to win the lategame. Fireballs off the top took this match every time I played it.
Even: Humans - High variance, so one of you is probably getting blown out, but the matchup feels very close. Play/Draw matters a lot, and having a 2-drop on turn two is crucial.
Midrange -
Thought-Knot Seer is a beating and
Reality Smasher is a beating. They usually remove a sweeper or two from the control version (and drop a color) while getting more aggressive, all good choices against our deck.
Slight Underdog: Ramp -
Kozilek, the Great Distortion is a beating as well. Every card they get by splashing
improves the match-up for them, although it is still a 50-ish card mirror.
Humans - The extra bit of speed benefits them; beating us before we can set up shop is a good strategy. Even on the play, strong underdog on the draw. If you're adding sweepers to the deck, this is why.
Aggro/Burn - See
Humans.
Strong Underdog: Renowned - They can grow their creatures one turn faster than we can get the mana to fireball them, we can't play around
Wildsize blowouts, and their removal lines up very well against us. I don't think sweepers are the answer here, but I'm not sure what is.
Prowess - The more aggressive the build of the deck, the worse it is for us.
Slip Through Space is bad,
Titan's Strength is worse. We can overpower
Thing in the Ice and
Jori En, Ruin Diver, but beating a
Mage-Ring Bully and
Jhessian Thief start is hard. The change to add three Lambholt Pacifists is great here.
So, out of the five Tier-1 decks I targeted: I feel like a favorite against four of them, and a slight underdog against the fifth. Not bad!
Seeds for further discussion:I cut the five worst performing cards and added in more meat - the Lambholt Pacifists have been excellent every game, and should definitely have been here all along. Having a two drop to play on the board before you ramp is fantastic. Hydra feels like an upgrade to Greenwarden, although not significantly - both are playable. Haven't drawn Ulamog yet, but I've never had a game where I looked at the board and thought "Ulamog would be bad here," so he's probably fine
(update: have now drawn Ulamog - he's earned his spot). Added in the one value land I thought we had room for, and it's looked excellent every time I saw it. We still only have Chandra as a "true" sweeper, but I've only faced mono-white humans once. Outside of a 1-drop insanely aggressive deck like white humans or
Call of the Full Moon red, though, we don't need one. All the decks trying to go a little bigger and a little midrange-ier get blown out by this deck. I'm going to make the claim that this deck does not need or want another sweeper - but I encourage you to test on your own to decide that for yourself.
As far as chaff remaining in the list,
Reclamation Sage and
Nissa, Vastwood Seer are the most reasonable cuts. Not sure what you'd add, but for those wishing to put in some
Radiant Flames, I'd suggest them as the swap. You'll gain percentage against aggro, but lose it against midrange and control. It might take the UR Prowess match-up from atrocious to merely bad, although that's still an uncommon deck.
Update: Just hit Rank 40 for the first time this season with this deck! Yay! Also,
Lambholt Pacifist is single-handedly winning games, thanks to @Immortal Reborn for the suggestion!