Against random because vote history matters in later days. Seriously...

So let me get this straight TB. You think that people who voted for random lynch are comedy aligned. You're voting Rag because you agree Rag is a good lynch choice? You don't agree with what Rag has been saying?

OK - I'm caught up. Not going to enter into the discussion about the random lynch, I think it's clearly a bad idea, if you're town.
Vote: Rag
At this point, you seem to be working the most against town. Not saying that makes you scum, but I think you are more likely than anyone else right now to flip scum, and so on.

Votes:

Ragnarokio: 15377, KoD, True_Believer, NeoSilk (4)
Random Lynch: Zinger2099, Ragnarokio (2)
Niklor: Silly (1)
True_Believer: GobO_Scarlet (1)
Silly: Niklor (1)
KoD: squinty_eyes (1)
No vote: Garren_Windspear, Fruit (2)

A note to the mod: I am away on vacation until the 31st. My activity will be lax until then.

A note to the players: See my note to the mod ^. I won't likely be able to post all that often (if at all), but I will try to keep up on the happenings of the game.

Also, Unvote, because cool mechanic notwithstanding, Scarlet is right.

@Zinger: Noted.

---

Votes:

Ragnarokio: 15377, KoD, True_Believer, NeoSilk (4)
Random Lynch: Ragnarokio (1)
Niklor: Silly (1)
True_Believer: GobO_Scarlet (1)
Silly: Niklor (1)
KoD: squinty_eyes (1)
No vote: Garren_Windspear, Fruit, Zinger2099 (3)

Heads up. I'm going to be in New York on Monday and Tuesday. If I have internet access I'll post at night from the hotel, but don't count on it too hard.

But only if they are not random votes based on random accusations, otherwise a random lynch is actually safer. History will be misleading in this case.



Yeah, logic says that. Of course I am not ruling out Silly's theory and they can be mafia, but in that case they made an incredible bad move and showed themselves. I don't believe that to be the case.

So I don't believe Ragnarokio is a good lynch choice, but he is a good target for a claim, specially if he proves to be comedy. My vote and his defense of a random lynch are unconnected.

I am voting him just because I want to force a claim and currently he is the one with more votes, but I am more than willing to change to a more fishier target.

Random can also kill yourself. How is that safer?

Safer for the greater good, worst for yourself though.

Greater good is also info. More info on 'aimed' lynches.

TB


Refer to the arguments on this between Rag, JD, and myself. Even if it was a random vote cast by a townie for completely random reasons, excluding oneself, your chance of nailing scum is higher than if left to rng. And your assertion that the history will be misleading isn't entirely accurate. One person who used the completely random reason may not exactly be the most helpful, but you still have votes cast to look at which is better than having no votes to look at (since rng would do the work).

TB


First off, no, logic does not say that. That is, those who voted random lynch are not guaranteed to be comedy aligned. As was stated in previous posts by JD and myself, while arguing with Rag, mafia can push and hide among the random lynch if they so chose because it benefits them. Why? Because mafia don't have to commit to anything that will definitely yield information beyond just voting for a random lynch. You effectively stop them from having to interact with the game by placing votes, removing votes, explaining their actions, etc etc. Aside from one dead person's role being revealed (a 25% chance that it will be mafia dead), you have no other information to go on effectively making the game similar to a night start -- and I believe JD already pointed this out.

Secondly, your decision to agree with Rag is faulty because Rag's entire argument concerning random lynches has been flawed from the start. Rag doesn't even understand that the probability from game to game is different; mostly, because, Rag has been trying to use the success rate that town has as the probability for lynching scum. That is, rather than having a probability of 25% to lynch scum Rag is asserting we have an 18% probability. Rag got that 18% from reviewing 11 games from the past and determining that of those games town has only lynched scum 2 times. So rather than a 3/12 (25%) chance of lynching mafia this game, Rag says we have 18%. I shouldn't have to tell you how wrong Rag is in this circumstance.

Nevermind that though, let me direct you to my dice example. If you missed it, then here is the summary: I rolled 11d8 while assigning 1,2 as the outcomes that resulted in a scum being lynched. The rest of the outcomes were town being lynched. The results of the roll were exactly similar to the 11 games Rag used to show JD. Essentially, by Rag's logic, random lynching has a success rate that is 18% just like us making it no better. But again, this is just the SUCCESS RATE. It is NOT the probability to lynch. But for some odd reason, Rag asserted that random lynching sits at 25% while we sit at 18%.

Clearly Rag's logic is flawed and agreeing with him makes you flawed as well.

With all that out of the way, there is one minor thing TB. You say you want to force a claim. Cool. Only problem I have here is that you've caught yourself in a contradiction.

That is, you believe those who voted random lynch are comedy aligned and you're voting for someone who voted for random lynch (and defended it too no less). Essentially, your vote does nothing to force a claim because you recognize that that person is comedy aligned which means you won't be lynching them. Course the whole point in trying to force a claim is to do so by lynch is necessary so the person has to claim (or die). In your case, you want to force a claim, but you believe Rag is comedy aligned despite your vote making it that much easier to lynch Rag. At best, you end up unvoting to maintain your belief that Rag is comedy aligned. At worst, you keep your vote on Rag to lynch someone you believe is comedy aligned.

An apparent contradiction from what I can see.

FoS: TB

Logic says that, it is a fact. People are not logic, also a fact, so they did not match what logic says perfectly. They can be mafia, but I have nothing to draw any information, so for this day that is enough for me to continue. They are comedy until they prove otherwise. And it is incredibly more logic (such thing doesn't exist) than the reason you are voting Ragnarokio, because then you will need to vote for Zinger, Niklor and myself too. Bad logic doesn't make a player mafia, a lie, maybe.

Ragnarokio's argument is flawed, but the logic behind it is good. The actual percentage I cannot say, but that it is certainly worse than 25%. Mafia can make sure of that. That is why I agree with him. About information, it depends heavily on how people create it and use it.

This discussion is pointless anyway, and I will not continue it, as I believe a random lynch is only useful if nobody gives any information. And right now, that sounds a very good plan to me, but I also think that it is too soon to decide that.

Information can be gleaned from posts. Not necessarily hard facts.

@True, Rag's logic is why his argument is flawed. If his logic wasn't flawed, his argument would be right. That's basic logic. But I get the impression you don't care about any of this. This is just a means to an end for you. The only thing you care about is generating claims any way you can. I'm not sure what your end game is, but I'm pretty sure that if you keep on your current course of action, the person in a claim or die situation will be you.

No, logic does not say it is fact. You do not know how to properly logic.

The assertion is that anyone voting random lynch is comedy aligned. Counter example: Everyone votes random lynch. Everyone is therefore comedy aligned. This cannot be true. Therefore the assertion is false. Therefore your logic is flawed.

There is no hard fact that states and maintains only comedy aligned will vote for random lynch. If there is, then show it to me and prove it. Otherwise, what you are saying has no bearing at all and is, in fact, flawed. Other than that, probability alone shows that town will be chosen by rng more often than not. Us choosing who to lynch is better than random lynch (as shown by JD when one excludes oneself from who to vote for). Mafia can choose to do a random lynch and give no additional information in the form of interactions for anyone to look at, or they can choose to manipulate a lynch in so far as they start interacting and putting out information in the form of interactions to be looked at.

In terms of pure numbers without anything else considered, random lynch is not better than voting who to lynch. At best it is tied with voting someone. At worst, it is worst since it has a chance to hit yourself. And anyone should know that as town, you don't want to lynch someone that you know is town (that includes yourself) since that is counterproductive (this is something JD has already brought up).

TB


The logic is not good. It's been shown by example and proven by definition. Do you not understand that?

As for the actual %, prove that it is worse than 25%. As it stands, as long as one doesn't seek themself as a lynch, the probability is 3/11 that you vote for scum. That's better than 3/12. Can mafia influence the vote? Sure, but anyone can influence the vote. Ultimately what matters is who people choose to go with. There are more people in this game than mafia, and things can certainly go in a way that doesn't favor them just as much as it can go in a way that does.

And it is incredibly more logic (such thing doesn't exist) than the reason you are voting Ragnarokio, because then you will need to vote for Zinger, Niklor and myself too. Bad logic doesn't make a player mafia, a lie, maybe.[/quote]

And this, right here, is wrong too. You do not understand the reason why Rag is being voted in the first place. Rag is being voted for pushing the random lynch with horribly flawed logic. Zinger and Niklor are different in that Niklor is voting random lynch just because he can and Zinger probably for the same reason. This is vastly different than Rag's idea that random lynch is [b]better because of numbers that he has not only misrepresented, but misunderstood too.

You. You agree with Rag. You say he has sound logic. You think he's comedy aligned, and yet you still vote him to pressure him into claiming even though that can only be accomplished if you literally want to lynch him. And no, this discussion isn't pointless. This discussion helps us form opinions and stances so we can get a better idea of who we want to vote.

Vote: TB

*****Fixed*****

TB


And this, right here, is wrong too. You do not understand the reason why Rag is being voted in the first place. Rag is being voted for pushing the random lynch with horribly flawed logic. Zinger and Niklor are different in that Niklor is voting random lynch just because he can and Zinger probably for the same reason. This is vastly different than Rag's idea that random lynch is [b]better because of numbers that he has not only misrepresented, but misunderstood too.

Well this has all made for very interesting reading. I have to say the sight of KoD and Numbers combining forces against a single target is practically terrifying. Have the pair of you considered a career in politics? You filibuster with the best.

That said I suppose I should express some opinion on current arguments. To begin I actually kinda agree with the 'Random Lynch' thing - in principle. It serves as a decent razor here. In the absence of any other information a random lynch is better then a 'random' lynch - that is too say mechanically random is better then random hunches.

Where Rag and, through extension, T_B have gone wrong is that they seem to believe that random voting is the best primary choice. Random voting is a useful tool in a situation in which we have all, collectively, finished talking and no consensus has been reached. Calling for it to be used as a primary method of lynching - especially by those of you who called for it with your damned opening posts - is... well it's just stupid. Either you critically undervalue having a paper trail of thoughts and ideas to look back on as the game progresses, you have a grossly inept grasp of probability or, for whatever reason, you really don't want people actually talking. While this doesn't inherently mark you as scum it doesn't really help you acquire town pants either. In fact it's actively detrimental.

I'll reread things and see if any other issues have arisen I should probably address but the whole 'random lynch' things seems to be the primary thrust of the day.

EBWOP:

Unvote, Vote: TB

Proofreading helps.