We should still kill fruit

Also there is no guarantee that the mod is actually telling the truth and random lynches could just always kill town.

I know that is something that I have done in the past.

If a no lynch wagon and a silly dragons wagon are competing, and at the last minute KoD switches his vote to no lynch resulting in silly living, and silly later flips scum, that puts KoD in a bad light. There's one quick example of how a no lynch could be executed but information could be gained from the day it happened.

@Rubik: can you confirm whether or not random lynches are truly random?

I'm fine killing fruit but I'd prefer someone vig him rather than waste a lynch on him

Yeah, forum mafia at least. I've played a lot of hidden role games in real life before though.

Anyways, I'm not really sure why Rag wants to lynch me after going through the trouble of defending random lynches on day 1 for so long. Would you prefer killing me over a random?

nah i'm just kidding around

Rag: wagons example goes with two normal lynches too.

Indeed, whether its a random lynch or a normal lynch, similar information is gained.

Normal has potential for double info, because 2 players.

Vote: Niklor

Just because I want to force him (not exactly him, but anyone) into making a claim and he is the only player with a vote. If no better target is present until the end of the day, I will probably switch to a random lynch.

Vote: True_Believer No fishing for roles.

Random lynches are random.

Votes:

Random Lynch: Niklor, Zinger2099, Ragnarokio (3)
Niklor: KoD, True_Believer (2)
True_Believer: GobO_Scarlet (1)
No vote: 15377, NeoSilk, Silly, squinty_eyes, Garren_Windspear, Fruit (6)

Wow....figured I'd be able to catch up in a few minutes, looks like I'm wrong.
I've not read everything so far, but, I will say, I will not be supporting a random lynch on D1. To me, it does not matter if people think it's more likely to hit scum than a normal lynch, it's that it gives us no information at all to look back on later.
IMO - random lynch only helps scum in the long run.
I'll fully catchup either later this weekend on Monday, but also consider, quick lynches on D1 also only help scum. When I do have time to really look though things, I'll be focusing on those trying to sway the talk to the benefits of random lynching, and to those trying to get to a majority quickly.

Niklor janai. Katsura da.

Random lynch is good because amusing. Stop trying to justify it as an actual pro-town move when it is just the zany, fun option of the game. Will I commit to pushing it towards the end of the day? Maybe, but probably not. Typically speaking, something will become noteworthy to me and I will feel inclined to push upon it. Still, nothing stands out so far and I have no strong reason to not have a vote on something this early in the day.

As for TB, he's trying to make something happen that isn't a discussion about how random lynch is random lynch. So, eh.

@Neo
Majority doesn't force a lynch.

Actually, five seconds later, having looked at the rules, that seems a bit of an ambiguous wording. I initially interpreted it as meaning we essentially had a second option to say we were for ending the day now.

@RUBIK

If a player or option reaches the majority of votes, does the day end or do we also have to indicate as a majority we want day to end early?

Making a lot of posts in a row, but looking at day start, that was clarified. Guess I don't need Rubik after all, just like always.

Majority vote doesn't end the day.

You're still comparing apples and oranges here though. Your 18% may be an accurate success rate, but that's not the same as town's probability of lynching scum by decisive lynch. So to state that random's 25% chance of lynching scum is stronger is blatant misrepresentation, as KoD said. As I said before, each town vote, directed at anybody but themselves (as they know they are town), increases the probability of hitting scum over random lynching, as a vote to randomly lynch could be a vote for yourself if you're selected by the generator. You go from 3/12 shot to a 3/11 shot, which raises the probability of hitting scum by roughly 2%, and that's just by removing yourself from your voting pool. So as the numbers show random voting actually has less probability of hitting scum than directed voting. As KoD showed in his example, the success rates aren't guaranteed to be higher either. You literally have no argument for why a random lynch is stronger than a decisive lynch right now.

Given the above, I can't help but feel like you're the best option for scum pushing random lynch to escape accountable voting.

Vote: Rag

@Silly, Yes Silly. I am your father...wait that's not right...

@Info gathered from a random lynch, Rag's argument is dependent strictly on the assumption that there will still be competing wagons. The problem here is it's an assumption. Looking at his examples, he uses no lynch instead of random lynch to point out generated information. The problem there is no lynch, by itself, is far more telling than a random lynch. Let's look at the example from a random lynch perspective:

Silly and Random are tied. Late in the day KoD switches to Random lynch. Silly is now still not safe from being lynched.

What have we learned? Nothing. Let's say Silly still dies to Random and flips scum. Did KoD switch to save Silly? Probably not since Silly still could die anyways. Did KoD switch because he thought Random was the better option? Probably not because there's no argument for Random nor is there accountability in the final outcome. What can we actually deduce from such a switch? Not much. KoD and Silly could be scum mates, with KoD unvoting Silly because of the belief that Silly had a better chance of surviving a Random lynch than risking somebody switching. But! KoD could be town who simply has become doubtful about his current reasons for voting Silly but still maintains there's a chance Silly is scum and is therefore okay with Random taking Silly out. But! KoD could be town or scum who has simply chosen to unvote but sees that just unvoting isn't going to stop a Random lynch and so resigns to fate and piles on a vote anyways. When you actually look at the business end of a Random lynch, it's plain to see that the information gathered is far less than decisive lynch or even a no lynch. Does it produce no information? No. Even if the whole game jumped on the random wagon and just ended day, you'd get dead guy information. Does that make it similar? No. As the above shows, the information is vastly inferior and of far less use to the town.

@Silly: It is exactly true. Approximately 18% is an approximation I am ok with. Is it 18% though? No, it is not nor do I agree that it is. I covered that.

@Neo: If random lynch had a higher probability of hitting scum, then we would do a random lynch because it has a higher chance of hitting scum. Not only that, scum would try to go against a random lynch that has a higher chance of hitting scum because it has a higher chance of hitting scum. That just stands to reason. But, in our particular case, a random lynch does not which is why we have an argument going against random lynching.