I've done 8 drafts of Origins now (started off with three consecutive finals, failed to make it back since) and it's early enough in the format that analyzing those cards that table should provide some interesting information. Below is a list of every card that appeared in a pack at pick 9 or later during those 8 drafts. I'll be doing a lot of analysis in posts to come, but feel free to post anything you feel is relevant to the conversation.

Here's some math for you. (Feel free to check it, as I've been known to mess these things up before.) All the figures below disregard basic lands and the 15th pick.

• In those 8 drafts, 1920 commons were opened.
• Each common was opened an average of 19 times.
• Dividing the tabling rate by the opening average gives you a rough idea of each card's tabling expectancy. For example, Vine Snare expects to table a whopping 79% of the time (accounting for lateness of pick, of course) while Aerial Volley expects to table only 16% of the time by comparison.

This is all using imperfect information. 8 drafts is a nice sample size, but by no means definitive. What I'm looking to analyze here is what colors and themes are being under-appreciated, what playable cards are reliable to pick up later, and other such interesting qualities. For that, I think enough information is present.

Let's take a look at perhaps the most thematic cards this information considers: the multiples matter cards.

0 x Timberpack Wolf
0 x Cleric of the Forward Order
1 x Undead Servant
5 x Infectious Bloodlust
6 x Faerie Miscreant


These cards gain a lot of profitability from having multiple copies. This is already a difficult task to pull off: Each common is only opened about 2.4 times per draft. Because of this, their top-end potential naturally goes down. It gets even worse when you can't table the cards. Wolf and Cleric are both reasonable bears on their own and tend to get taken before they table. If you pass one pick 1 and see another pick 2, you can't really bank on the first one tabling.

Bloodlust and Miscreant, however, show some promise. But the evidence still suggests that they're being drafted too highly to be reliable. Compare them to some of the reasonable cards that have higher tabling results to see this. Now, it's definitely not impossible. Having a close to average tabling rate definitely means the opportunity exists. If you open a Bloodlust or Miscreant pick 1 and are passed one in the middle picks, it definitely could be worth taking. That, of course, also relies on how good you think the cards are, which again is debatable. But I'll definitely be looking to try both out!

Servant is an odd duck. The numbers suggest it's not much more likely to table than Cleric or Wolf, but it's clearly worse than either if you can't load up. My guess is that the opportunity dreams are there for this one, since it creates an extra body if things work out and has combo potential with Nantuko Husk and other such sacrifice effects. Again, not a card you can rely on seeing back, so probably not a strategy you can take all that aggressively hoping for a payoff.

Here are the color break-downs of the catalog in the OP:


The higher a color's tabling rate, the less it's being drafted. Yes, some colors just have worse cards than others, but that actually strengthens the statement: less good cards means less likelihood of being drafted to begin with. With this in mind, it's likely a good idea to look out for blue or black as an additional color for your deck, especially if you're looking to change directions mid-draft. Again, this is a small sample size, draft is self-correcting, and the signals at your particular table likely mean more than perceived tendencies do. But it's something worth keeping in mind.

On a similar note, let's look at the multicolored uncommons:

• There are 10 total multicolor uncommons out of the set's 80 uncommons.
• In those 8 drafts, 576 uncommons were opened, each uncommon being opened an average of 7.2 times.
• Dividing the tabling number by the average number gives you a rough estimate of a card's tabling expectancy at this current time. So the fact that Zendikar Incarnate is tabling 56% of the time is a big deal. To me, it's an indicator that are not being drafted in conjunction with each other AND that this card is being underrated.

If no one else will say it I will. This is some incredible research you've done here. I can gather some very telling info from your article. stuff that can help me in determining open colors/underdrafted colors at said table.

I know a lot of time when into making this and I appreciate your effort. Truly good stuff for a stat nerd like myself. I plan on researching your research further when time permits.

Thanks, JCP! I'll probably keep adding to the raw numbers after I do some more drafts, posting the new complete results separately to watch for possible adjustments. I put these findings into work on the first draft I did after posting them. I basically committed to drafting blue or black, whichever felt more open. 3-0'd on the back of some good late blue cards passed. (And a few opened.)

This is awesome, Rush. Because of how in depth it is I have nothing to add except to say that it was great reading all of it. Very informative.

Thanks!

After 4 more drafts (I'll add some additional info later):

One thing I'd like to do with this information is see it there are cards with a high tabling rate that have some inherent use that's being underutilized. I'm just gonna pick out some cards that interest me, but I encourage you to pick some out as well for discussion.

Calculated Dismissal, Dark Dabbling, Healing Hands, and Send to Sleep are all common cards with obscenely high tabling rates, each fitting into a possible spell mastery deck. Most of the reviews have said that spell mastery isn't something you really work toward, but rather a slight benefit your deck achieves at times. Clearly, though, you can draft with the idea in mind and expect to fill out the deck with playable cards. If we keep going down the list, Bone to Ash, Negate, Returned Centaur, and Screeching Skaab all table a reasonable amount of the time as well, and all support the supposed archetype. Uncommon also gives you Jayemdae Tome and Mage-Ring Network, which begins to suggest a deck based on card advantage, a bit of self-mill, and mana dominance. How exactly would you go about drafting this deck? Well, there are a number of blue rares that can start you down the road: Jace, Vryn's Prodigy, Disciple of the Ring, and Soulblade Djinn all benefit from the higher spell count. Opening with some of the better spell mastery cards also can signal a chance to try this out: Fiery Impulse, Unholy Hunger, Ravaging Blaze, Exquisite Firecraft, and Gideon's Phalanx are all worthwhile starts. (Though note that the red spells are all really good here, so the color might have to be a bit more open for that route to be reliable.) The point is that you can get value out of niche cards that make their way reliably around a table if you plan for it. I'm gonna look for this strategy to open up and report back on my results.

Faerie Miscreant just isn't good in this format, unfortunately. In another format it could easily be an all star, but here is just isn't that good.

Can we had Alhammaret to the list of cards that will table? Guy isn't that good, and I've passed him multiple times playing blue.

I just played my first Faerie Miscreant deck. Took a late one pack 1 and nabbed 2 more at opportune spots. Blue tempo aggression with some pump spells. I liked it enough, though I drew multiples in every game, which may not be likely. I think there are decks where it has a home, but you want some group pump to take advantage of its quickness.

Alhammaret, High Arbiter doesn't matter that much to this exercise being a rare. (I only tracked the rares because they kept getting in the way of other information.) That said, I've opened it and been passed it a few times, but I've never seen it table.

I'm surprised by how much ampryn tactician and infernal scarring tabled, and I'm surprised that deadbridge shaman tabled at all.

Is infernal scarring that good?

Ampryn Tactician tables because white has a ton of good stuff.

It's not great, but I'm surprised it tabled that much.

Black was the least drafted color from a pure numbers standpoint in these drafts. That's likely a contributing factor. Also, there are a ton of 3-drops to choose from and 1 toughness is a large liability in this format.

Wryn wingmare was so bad in the prelelease sealed that I wanted to side it out every game(being RW with 2 common 4 mana removal spells didn't help).
Is it a lot better in draft or do thopters and the stuff that deals 1 damage still make it bad? Never saw it in action.

Tactician will probably not be tabling any more, but the Shaman is. Seems that people prefer the Eyeblight Assassin. And they pick removal over both.

There is a lot of bounce in the format, and Suppression Bonds and Claustrophobia don't help Scarring either. Black is not aggro enough in this deck to play Scarring, IMO.

I don't imagine a lot of decks wanting it. All the fliers kill it and you'll want upwards of 17+ creatures to avoid the problems it causes.