I have few actual reasons. Mostly it was a whim. The result of the mission will help me somewhat though.

The results of the Mission 3 cards are: Three Passes.

Leadership has passed to razorborne.

Mission 4 requires four members of the team, and also, requires two fail cards for it to be sabotaged.

Well... That is unexpected.
I guess we just take a random and push through for victory then?

It's possible one of us was scum and passed so that we'd base all further missions on this core group of 3 people. If anyone would do that, it would be Razorborne (based both on the fact that he was the only one who approved this mission despite it seeming like it was a bad idea and the fact that he seems pretty experienced at this game).

That said, I'd rather just operate on the assumption that we are probably all town.

It makes the game a lot easier to wrap my head around. Even if one of us was faking it for some bizarre reason, we'd still have a good chance of randomly selecting a townie and making it impossible to double fail.

Choose wisely, Razor.

round|nominator|team|Garren|Mown|Neo|Nik|Raz|Rubik|Zinger||Go?|Fails
1.1|Garren|Garren, Raz|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no||{color=red}no|NA
1.2|Neo|Neo, Mown|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no||{color=red}no|NA
1.3|Nik|Nik, Neo|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no||{color=red}no|NA
1.4|Zinger|Zinger, Garren|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes||{color=yellow}yes|{color=green}0
2.1|Mown|Mown, Zinger, Garren|{color=green}yes|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes||{color=yellow}yes|{color=red}1
3.1|Rubik|Rubik, Raz, Neo|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes||{color=yellow}yes|{color=green}0

while I appreciate being considered that devious, unfortunately it wouldn't work. this next mission needs two fails, so razorscum would need to invite a buddyscum, we'd both have to fail, and the two fails would expose the rat in the core of 3.

I'm still really confused by the voting last time, even more so now that we passed since I'm pretty sure any scum on that mission would have to fail. maybe Rubik and Neo are both scum and couldn't figure out how to avoid a double fail? but why would Rubik invite another scum on a mission they absolutely needed to win if they didn't know how to avoid that? and why would so many people approve that mission? I'm really not confident that I can trust this core of 3 for the next run, but maybe that's what the spies wanted? I'm gonna go mad with WIFOM here. if this blows up though I don't know that we can pull together the fifth mission.

so my instinct is to go with my original suspicions and take the three from last time plus Zinger. but the way everything else shook down I'm really not confident that that'll work. let's look at some scenarios:

• Garren, Nik, and Mown are scum: it's possible that both Garren and Nik saw Neo planning to vote no, assumed that if even people on the mission weren't passing it they could sneak in a vote of confidence on townies for points, but since they both did it it blew up in their face. seems unlikely though, although Garren's complete lack of tangible justification for a day-3 vote is suspicious and looks fairly cover-up-y.
• Rubik and Neo are scum: this does sort of explain the passing, but it doesn't explain the voting. I can accept that Neo voted no to duck the double-fail, but if Rubik was concerned about that they could've just nominated someone else, and I do find it a bit unlikely that a spy would try to toss away their turn like that. not inconceivable, but seems like an unnecessary risk. also leaves the question of who third scum is. can't be Nik, which makes Nik's vote weird. my best guess is Garren, since they voted yes and also voted for missions with Neo day 1.

basically it makes no sense for there to have been 1 spy on that team because they gain nothing not failing. all they do is gamble that the next mission will bring along another spy, at which point you expose a second spy for no particular gain and push the game to 2-2 instead of 2-1. it makes very little sense for their to have been 2 spies because Rubik's behavior makes no sense in that scenario. and it doesn't make much sense for there to have been 0 spies because at least 2 spies voted for it.

I think the most likely explanation is Garren and Nik goofed trying to fake a vote, but I'm not super confident on that and I just woke up so I'll spend a little more time thinking before I nominate.



PS: I recognize that, from everyone else's perspective, the possibility that Neo and I are spies and were afraid of the double-fail exists. I don't expect you to take my word on this, but I can promise you that in that case I would've played a fail. not only am I not particularly afraid of the double fail, but I would have interpreted Neo's no vote as an indicator that they were, and thus would've assumed they weren't gonna play one.

I wish you hadn't provided that post script, or at least the part where you outlined how you would have avoided a double fail.

Although, it hardly matters now that I think about it (except in the case of them avoiding a triple fail today, which is unlikely to happen :x).

Wow...just...wow. I can't see a team with spies letting this mission pass at this point.
I'm going to have to re-evaluate, but, with 5 different people having been on missions that passed, clearly one of the spies voted yes on the one of the missions.

Clearly, my thought is that is has to have been someone on the first mission, since that one makes the most sense to have spies pass it.
Alas, that puts both Garren and Zinger in the spotlight there.

If it were up to me, for a 4 person team, it would be myself, Raz, Rubik and anyone. Since it needs two fail cards to fail, and, with the assumption that the spy team would have caused mission 3 to fail, that should win the game, right?

If the core of us 3 is all town, we will win.

If one of us was being tricky (I think this is possible, but unlikely) or if two of us were scum afraid of double failing (I think this is even more unlikely), we might still be able to lose this.

Operating under the assumption that 0-1 of us are scum, we'd ideally want to construct a team involving us and a random who is hopefully town on the off chance that one of us was being tricky. As Raz pointed out, it's possible that there were 2 scum among us who were afraid of double failing. I think this is unlikely because I think Raz (as he himself said) would probably fail in the case of two scum and I think it's likely that Neo is town based on his voting record.

My only fear, again, is that Raz is trying to get some sort of tricky scum win, but I think that's unlikely enough that we can mostly discount it. We still want to try to select a town player on the off-chance that is the case, though.

I agree - while there's a chance that someone is trying to be super tricky, I don't think that's the case, and, if it is, I still think it was the wrong move. If there was 1 spy on that team who passed it, the assumption is that it will be the same team + 1 other player. For town to lose like that, whomever picks the next mission would have to pick one of the two spies out of the 4 remaining players - which is clearly a 50/50 shot for the game to be over, and won by the resistance.

So...my current breakdown:

Either Garren or Zinger is a spy, but I don't believe that both are.
Niklor - pretty sure he's a spy
Rubik - pretty sure he's not a spy
Raz - pretty sure he's not a spy
Neo - I know I'm not
Mown - it could be mown, as the last spy. that's where it gets tricky...

Either way, I'd support any 4 player team with Rubik/Raz/Me on it, as long as it does not include Nik. I'd rather roll the dice with either Zinger or Garren as the 4th, but, I'd likely vote yes as well, if the 4th was Mown.

I can't imagine there only being one spy on last mission, unless they sent a typo or something like it, anything else is just alien to me. You either work with the assumption that there were none or two. In some sense, including Niklor is actually really safe. If there were two spies, Niklor can't be one. If there were no spies, then his alignment doesn't matter.

The only case I can see for a solo spy would be Razor because of the fact that he was the only person on the team to approve of the mission and he might have valued being credible more than failing the mission. Even if it might be unlikely, it's still possible.

true although if there were 2 spies Nik's alignment also doesn't matter because those two spies will fail. including someone else who could be a spy introduces the possibility of 3-spy jeopardy where you have to get exactly 2 to send in fails. I can tell you that my methods for avoiding double-fail don't apply in that situation (Mown can confirm this, I told them the strategy after the last game.) so that could mess things up for them. I feel like the right play is still to invite someone I trust but this is an interesting angle.

Well, I was working under the assumption that if you believe there to be two spies on the last mission, then you would try to exclude them from mission 4, not invite them again. Or, like, it's about how you want your team to look, not what potential results from a mission 4 would tell.

Occam's razor suggests the simplest explanation is the most likely; that no scum exist on the mission. Then again, the simplest explanation is not always the most likely when it comes to games of WIFOM.

I think that Mown is full of **** and that he is trying to push an argument that you either must believe that the mission had two spies who double-negatived each other or that there were no spies at all. I think it is certainly possible that there was just one spy on the mission who was too afraid to blow his cover by failing it because he feared he couldn't out bluff that it wasn't him over the other two members. Or maybe he just wanted us to trust him. No idea what motives would possess a spy at this point to pass the mission (give us a false sense of security?), but I DO know that Mown's argument to eliminate the possibility of only one member of that team being a spy is certainly leading us to conclusions, and I don't like being lead to make conclusions; I'd rather draw my own, thank you very much. But the real joke is on Mown, because in trying to eliminate the option of there being only one spy on this team it shows us what he is trying to protect: the fact that 2 of three members are probably resistance. Right now I'm willing to bank that those two members are Razor and Rubik, because this post from Neo really rubs me the wrong way:

Razor, you want to be very careful with who you put on this mission. The air is very thick with WIFOM here.

Myself, I believe Neo and Mown are scum. I'm not sure who the third scum member is.

Or maybe I am just stating the obvious so we don't need to entertain the thought, because the less time spent on pointless discussion is better. What kind of mental gymnastics would someone have to do to convince themselves to not sabotage that mission? Yeah, sure, you let that one pass. Now what? Now you lose unless you manage to get another spy on the team, and then show yourself with a 50% probability of being a spy instead of 33%, as well as dragging one of your teammates into the whole ordeal. That sure sounds like a plan. I play under the assumption that my opponents aren't shooting themselves in the foot. Sure, there's bluffing and counterplay, but those have boundaries as well.

Sure, 2 of 3 on that group are probably resistance. In fact, I would say that statistically, there's about a 75% chance that all of them are resistance.

eh, screw it, I'm gonna bring Razorborne, Rubik, Neo, and Zinger.

I'm good with that team.

Zinger - you really think I'm scum who just decided to vote yes on the 3rd mission? You're clearly more likely scum, having been on a failed mission.
But still, with 2 fails needed, and a must-win for scum, this should either win the game, or provide enough info to win on the final one.

Mission 4

Proposal 1

Leader: razorborne

Team: razorborne, Rubik, NeoSilk, and Zinger2099

Time Limit: Due to the lower activity on weekends, this vote will remain open until Monday at 2 PM EST to give everyone adequate time to converse and vote.

Now I have my doubts....

Maybe Mown was right. Maybe there were two spies on that mission... Are razorborne and Neo scumbuddies

But if that's true then maybe I was wrong about Mown....

Now I am all confused.