prior to Mown directly asking for elaboration, my entire response was this:

if some math, some caveats to that math, and a brief nod to the overreaction is your definition of "ballistic" then I don't know what to tell you.

Mission 3

Proposal 1

Leader: Rubik

Team: Rubik, razorborne and NeoSilk

Under five hours into the 48 hour voting period, and we currently have two of seven votes in.

...I can't remember if I have sent my PM for this mission.

There's an outbox.

So....7 players, 3 spies.

At least 1 of Mown/Zinger/Garren is a spy.
However, it could be more, although I think that's unlikely.

So, of the 4 remaining players (myself, Nik, Raz, Rubik) there could be as many as 2 spies there, and I would assume there's at least 1.

So, even though I am on this team, I think it's unlikely to pass. If there was really only 1 spy on the first mission, then there has to be one on this one as well.

Yeah but all my PM's were just 'I approve of this mission/team/whatever' so I kinda lost track of what I was approving off. It's been resolved now though.

That's why I always state which mission my vote applies to!
Well, actually, it's for the convenience of the host, but I guess it also helps during occasions like these.

@raz: This mission is so significantly more important than the next one, that I can't agree with you attempting for anything but absolute perfection. I'd even say if this mission goes through and fails (because otherwise we win, unless there's a spy collision), I'd be tempted to make bad proposals for mission 4 to increase my chances of being able to make one for round 5, and I don't think I am exaggerating. If you have a set of three people you want to invite, then you should push for that, because if that assertion is correct, then the game is over. Otherwise, we'll have to root out exactly who the spies are, and that's pretty hard. (Especially if you are going to keep suspecting me :^)

And I appreciate it.

I now have six of seven votes in, and there are still about 31 hours remaining for that last vote to be tossed in.

I also have no gurantee that people will accept my mission proposal, and if they don't it passes to Garren, one of my top suspects, fairly late. anyway, I'm pretty sure this proposed team is spy-less, so whether it's the spy-less team I'm most comfortable with is largely irrelevant.

also, you gotta play all nine innings. I don't want this mission to fail, but I can't guarantee any mission will pass. if my current model is correct, either this team is safe, or the next two teams are both safe. either that or my entire model is inaccurate, in which case my set of suspicions re: this round are irrelevant. the worst thing you can do in a deception game is start to fear risk, because sure things don't exist.

that's a massive "if".

another added benefit is that, if my model is correct, Neoscum has to sabotage here and give themself away, because even if I bring them on next round there won't be another spy so they town will win. there's a lot of upside to this team even if I'm not 100% on Neo being town. (I'm also, for the record, not 100% on Rubik being town, because this is not a game of certainties.)

Nik is the clear favorite to be scum #1.
I'm leaning towards a Nik/Mown pair, with the other being either Rubik or Raz...

I'm not discounting the chance that Zinger/Garren passed the first mission to hide, but, it still buys them a bit more credibility than the rest of you.

Going with the assumption (right or wrong) that Mown is a spy, he would clearly pick two town, to eliminate the chance of both spies sending in the fail card. Nik voted yes cause at this point, it's OK to make an obvious move like that, as the spies need the win.

Either way, that means there's not likely to be a no-spy team until Garren picks.

I'm not locked into that mindset, it's just where I'm currently leaning.

based on what?

a) that's not a thing that can actually happen, b) Mown has stated themself that inviting a second spy is totally a thing they would do.

(I've decided to stop quoting the old results because razorborne has been very awesome about keeping a nice running tally for everyone. Hope that's okay.)

Mission 3

Proposal 1

Leader: Rubik

Team: Rubik, razorborne and NeoSilk

Mown - NO
Zinger2099 - YES
razorborne - YES
Garren_Windspear - YES
Rubik - NO
NeoSilk - NO
Niklor - YES

Result: Team approved. Rubik, razorborne and NeoSilk, I'll take your mission cards now.

with great power comes great responsibility.

round|nominator|team|Garren|Mown|Neo|Nik|Raz|Rubik|Zinger||Go?|Fails
1.1|Garren|Garren, Raz|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no||{color=red}no|NA
1.2|Neo|Neo, Mown|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no||{color=red}no|NA
1.3|Nik|Nik, Neo|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no||{color=red}no|NA
1.4|Zinger|Zinger, Garren|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes||{color=yellow}yes|{color=green}0
2.1|Mown|Mown, Zinger, Garren|{color=green}yes|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes||{color=yellow}yes|{color=red}1
3.1|Rubik|Rubik, Raz, Neo|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes|{color=green}yes|{color=red}no|{color=green}yes||{color=yellow}yes|?

for votes I can't find explanations for:

Garren, why the yes?
Nik, why the yes?
Rubik, why the no for your own team? it's not marked default so what's up? why nominate the team if you're not going to vote for it?

also if you ignore Zinger's column that chart is symmetrical

I was trying to analyze the response and then suggest that one of you nominate the same team if the vote pattern looked promising. Yesterday we really jumped the gun and I felt like voting no on my own plan was a good way to help stop that from happening again.

Given that it succeeded despite my rejection, I'm not feeling too optimistic.

yeah I'm pretty surprised it passed given two people on it voted no. that said, I don't know of a good reason why Rubikscum or Neoscum would vote no here, and since I know my alignment I'm feeling pretty confident if incredibly confused. if we're all town, at least two spies voted for an all-town team that would absolutely doom them if it passed... did they think it wouldn't pass and they voted yes for cred? from anyone else's perspective I'm sure it looks like I'm a spy, but from mine this is just baffling.

Yolo.

I voted no, as I believe there's a spy on the mission, and that it will fail. I hope I'm wrong.

I'll expand on my Nik suspicion after we see the results from this one.

It's nearly impossible for me to see Niklor's vote as anything but incredibly suspicious. As Resistance, it only makes sense if you somehow believe that me, zinger and Garren are the spies, and even if that were to be true, how ballsy is that?
A more likely assumption would be the Niklor is a spy, and there was one spy on my mission, and another one on this mission.