Garen, it's not wise to "ignore" what anyone says if you're not sure about your position. Especially if you're trying to evaluate who scum is.

One thing about mafia is that you should always look for inconsistencies -- a major part of which is the behavior of players. Another is to work off of what you know (as you have been doing and others have been doing to the best of their ability).

We can safely break down what we've learned about the game into two different areas:

Game mechanics and player behavior.

Concerning Game Mechanics:

- Possessions
- Win Conditions
- Puzzle


1. Possessions -

We know from both Rubik and Eli that possession has passed each night despite differences between the two (Rubik killed, Eli didn't kill). We know that I killed Numbers and that I have claimed possession has passed from me. Tell me, is there anything present that should make you doubt this other than the obvious I could be lying bit? If there is, please field the argument. Otherwise, based on what we know, we can safely assume possession must be one of two people -- you or Eli. Fair reasoning, no?

2. Win Conditions -

We know two win conditions. We know that "town" wins so long as no possessed escape. We know that "scum" wins so long as any possessed escape. That's all we know from multiple sources, mainly Rubik since it was proven with his death. The most obvious thing to note here is that, as you made mention of in questioning, neither win condition talks about, what I will refer to as, "typical mafia win conditions". Normally town win when all threats to the town are eliminated. Scum win so long as, and correct me if I'm wrong, they can contest majority. Neither of these "typical" win conditions rhyme with the win conditions in this game, unless you want to make an argument that "escape" means "eliminate" or some such bull. Do you agree with this line of reasoning? If not, field another argument.

3. Puzzle -

This is the last "game mechanic" to speak of, and we have little to go off of. Obviously the sign up thread made mention of a puzzle. However, within the game thread here, there has been no mention of a puzzle aside from Garen (who spoke of it) and Neo (who had figured out how to solve it). Beyond this we have nothing else about it; however, "escape", from the win conditions, may be connected with that.


Do you see anything wrong concerning the game mechanics based on what we actually know (Garen)?

Ok Garen, moving to player behavior.

This one won't be so cut and clean like the above because it is a bit abstract to a point. The main thing to focus on is what players do and say as I'm sure you know.

First, let's start with the very basics. Rubik came clean D2 about having been possessed the previous day. A majority of us agreed to let Rubik live till the next day so we could see if what he was saying would be backed up by someone else. Neo was lynched in the meantime. No one came out D3 about having been possessed during D2. Also, no one was killed during N2. We get into a whole series of discussions that start with Numbers and myself. I, being possessed at the time, push the agenda of a no lynch due to the *idea* that there are no longer any scum around due to Neo's death (making a connection between him and the possessions even though I know this to be false since I am possessed after the fact of Neo's death). Rubik's death is, by majority, agreed to be a necessity. Note too that, as town, Eli wanted me lynched because he knew me to be scum due to having been possessed earlier himself though he never mentions this. He, also, doesn't pursue Rubik. We move to D4 where I claim to have killed Numbers the previous night, and I also claim that I am no longer possessed. Eli confesses to having been possessed the previous night, but only after many other things happen.

----- Let's go with the above first and establish some connections.

The most important thing in all of this is Eli's confession to having been possessed on D2. Without that possession, we all had a vastly different outlook about the game. This is evident in my own "ramblings" as town and as scum. Let's focus on me being scum during D3. I had no knowledge about Eli's secret. All I could do was work with what I knew present in the game. As you'll recall, Scar came up with a game plan rather than trust my NL push. The game plan was simple and effective -- you play the game at a slow, steady pace to make absolutely sure (through Numbers and Garen) that there are no more possessed. Being a part of this discussion and not knowing for sure I'd remain as perma scum, I was left with two choices: Kill or don't kill. Now I knew I was possessed after the fact of Neo's death. What I didn't know was whether or not that possession would stick on me after reemerging from an absence D2. One of my ramblings about how possession worked, prior to Eli's confession, addressed this.

The main point being if I was going to be permanently possessed, what was I going to do? I certainly wasn't going to no hit again and waste time since, due to your ability, you can clear people who are not possessed and Numbers can watch people to know if they did something. If I was perma scum, then Numbers was the best choice because I wouldn't be 100% identified by him. The only problem, then, would be that Numbers was the only other unconfirmed person with from me at that time. That would mean I would have to argue in a situation, the next day, where I was the only unconfirmed person and would have to convince people to not lynch me (but given Scar's plan it would have called for my lynch).

So I killed Numbers, then, before the next day started, I was no longer possessed. So rather than hide, I came out about both the kill and my possession because, as town, I need to convince you guys of the truth or lose as town. There were a lot of speculations, beliefs, theories, w/e word you want to use to describe the discussions prior to Eli confessing. The moment Eli confessed, it changed everything about the game.


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All of the above is important when looking at behavior. Given my perspective and the state of the game prior to Eli confessing, do you honestly think I was being erratic? Coming up with different theories about how the game works based on what you know and speculating on what you don't know is not erratic.

Take the win conditions and puzzle for instance. We know what the win conditions are, but can argue different beliefs (such as Eli is trying to do). What we know about the puzzle comes strictly from Neo. If you take his word as face value, and I see no reason not to, then we know the puzzle is solved when no deaths occur day and night. Here's what we don't know: Does the game end immediately when no deaths occur day and night (as in day or night doesn't need to complete -- it freezes as Eli had mentioned).

I bring these up because this is where you start looking at players in depth. All of my actions and behavior up till Eli's confession are easily explained by Eli's concealment of game relevant information that we all could have used. On the other hand, there is nothing to explain Eli's behavior today and only today. Follow the flow of his posts from the start of today and watch what he says.

Let's start with his first post of the day:



Notice how he attacks me for "contradicting" myself and killing Numbers. Do you know what the major problem is with his post here? He's using information only he knows. Now don't get confused by this either. Remember, when Eli confessed he mentioned how he kept that information hidden to use it as a "trap" during D3. His "trap" was never used though until now in this post in a sense. It's evident with his "I knew you were mafia," line from the post. The problem with his trap comes later when he confesses what he knows. Before I move onto that though, notice his belief/opinion about killing last night. With his secret info, it is very possible scum would not kill due to being town later (as he did). But if you refer back to my perspective and consider I didn't have the info Eli did, you're left with a very obvious reason as to what happened.




This is Eli's confession post, and this is when everything changes in the game.

Now, there are numerous things to address in this post. I've already done that once. If you've ignored it, then that's not good. But the main thing to focus on is behavior.

With Eli's confession we get to establish certain things:

- Possession rotates each night for sure and has rotated off of KoD (me). There is no solid reason to doubt this given it rotated off of Rubik despite the fact he killed, and it rotated off of Eli despite the fact Neo was lynched and he didn't kill. Because of this, there is no viable reason to think that the possession would stick on me rather than move on to possession someone else.

That's pretty much the only thing we can establish for certain. The rest of Eli's post is unfounded speculation.

Now, I'm not going to go through and quote each of Eli's quotes and remark on them. I was already ignored once and I doubt you'll take time to be seriously skeptical of all that is said despite my pointing it out in detail. Rather, I'll summarize very briefly Eli's behavior.

As you go through and read Eli's posts, you'll notice certain things. Among these you'll see he mentions that he is immune to being possessed due to having not killed. Another is that he expelled the spirit and questions the rotation of possession still (or some such nonsense). Yet another is that he jumps around from viewing you (Garen) as scum to viewing me as scum. He also goes through several stages of behavior too: denial, anger, bargaining -- if he goes through depression and acceptance I'll be amazed. Although I suppose I could count his whole "I don't care anymore" phase as akin to depression.

But nevermind that. Point is Eli has been erratic and throwing out a lot of stuff without solid foundation. Oh, before I forget, your "no longer possession" message that informed you about being different was different from mine in only one way Eli. Mine did not include the whole "you have chosen not to kill" line. The rest of it is the same as with mine. Even without that though, the idea you are immune to repossession is one of strict belief that has nothing verifiable in game that would give us cause to believe it to be the case over the alternative.



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I've been typing for a while now so I need to conclude. Mainly for you Garen:

I'm going to speak to you as though you are scum. I'm doing this because it is necessary, to me, that I treat you as though you are scum while maintaining my doubts. I want you, and Scar and Eli, to know that I will not be moving my vote off of Eli. As far as I am concerned, he's given me enough reasonable doubt to not trust him over Garen (a major point in your favor Garen). Now I am aware that you unvoted Eli after your conversation with him where he presented his own beliefs/theories in regards to much of what has been talked about. For the record, all Eli is doing is making a judgement call on a belief that what he thinks is right despite what has been stated this game.



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I was going to quote Neo's post, but then I happened upon something completely by chance that I wasn't even looking for. Remember how Eli toted around the whole while he was possessed he knew he would become town and played differently due to it (ie not killing on N2). Well, here's something I found:

From Eli on D2 (while he was possessed)


You know, this gives me reason to doubt that Eli was truly possessed on D2. I honestly could see Numbers having been possessed during D2 and purposefully withholding that information during D3. Why he would though would be beyond me aside from spite for Rubik.

Anyway, the main thing about this is that it shows a clear shift between Eli then and Eli now. And do note, Scar, that Eli has essentially established playing like town while possessed. The only difference for today though is that him and Garen are the only choices for lynch, and he's been facing serious pressure from me.

Anyway back to you Garen. As I was saying, I've got so much reasonable doubt that it makes voting Eli the thing to do for me. As was covered though, if you're scum we can move to the next day with a guaranteed chance of winning. Now, since you did unvote after your discussion with Eli, that leads me to post this from Neo:

Neo


We've got no reason to assume Neo was lying to us about this since he was not under pressure/duress when he said this. If you, as scum, unvoted because you think Eli may have a point about how the game will just freeze and you'll be the victor, as scum, for no-hitting, then I'd advise you to think again. What Eli said is strictly his belief/opinion. It's not even a theory since it has nothing solid as a foundation to back it up. The one thing we do know about the puzzle comes from Neo, and Neo's words are right there in black for us to see. There must be a full day/night cycle with no deaths. A full cycle. A full day. A full night. If you're scum and you want to take that risk, then it's fine by me. I'm perfectly ok with taking a chance on you losing due to possession moving to someone else (assuming we no lynch today and you opt to no-hit due to believing Eli). That's what I wanted to say to you if you are scum.

But, I don't think you're the scum right now. I do think it is Eli and even if he isn't, we've got a good game plan to follow by lynching him and moving on to a guaranteed victory for town tomorrow as long as you no-hit (because if you did kill we'd have to go through a full night and see someone else get possessed -- likely scar if you opted to kill me during the night).