And, of course, there is the other issue unrelated to the theories to an extent.

Let me set your theory aside for a moment and go to my theory about there being no scum at this particular moment in time. No matter what happens, we may lose as town no matter what because I am unsure about how the design works. Obviously we have two known win conditions: no possessed escape, and any possessed escape. There's only four of us. In order for us to not lose as town we have to lynch someone, otherwise whoever gets possessed tonight will just no hit and win. If we do lynch, then scum has two choices. They can no hit as an attempt to try and win by causing a mislynch the next day, but they run the risk of being lynched themself. The other option is to perform a kill, then it comes down to who gets possessed and performs the last kill (You said there can be no quick draw because no majority <--- no majority is definitely true). In this case, town loses no matter what since we won't be able to lynch at all (unless the remaining two players vote the same person which would be a majority actually). Scum just has to wait till night and no hit after a no lynch happens during a 2 person day or kill the last person making them the only one left in the game (course who wins at that point may be weird depending on how the possessions fall -- might be possible for town to win if the person who is possessed, for example, performs a kill then stops being possessed and comes up as town the next day and a no lynch happens meaning there was a night with no ki-- ugh it's hard keeping it straight in my head).

You get the idea though.

So really it isn't about which theory to follow. It's all about killing me and seeing how this all plays out. Your theory makes me the antagonist that is trying to win. Lynching me is the obvious choice. My theory calls for believing me. What better way to believe me then to kill me and see that I am telling the truth?

Vote: KingofDominaria

Looks like I'll be joining you after all Numbers you rat #@$%!@%.

Whoever comes up as possessed will have the advantage. It is currently D4. After my death, we go down to 3 and during Night 4 we go down to 2 (assuming the possessed kills). D5 will be 2 remaining with one definitely possessed as per what I think about how the possessions work. There can be no lynch on D5 (barring someone voting themself) so N5 will come up. Possessed will kill cau -- oh that's interesting. Possessed can kill leaving one left, but if possession works like how I have speculated, then that person will not be possessed and -- oh wait that's not interesting. A kill will have happened N5 so we go to D6 with one left that is not possessed. No lynch on D6, move to N6 and night completes with a possession occurring and no deaths which means the last one standing wins as scum.

Well, that person and PopPa (and Neo since I believe his win con is the same as the possessed).

But that all hinges on how the possessions exactly work, and that is something that is hard to say for sure. Obviously whoever gets possessed will end up knowing how it works, but won't say they are possessed so they die.

Ok, I'm done speculating.

At the very least I am positive that I will have to die today. I'm slightly positive I know how the possessions work given what I know so far. I'm just unsure about how the possessions in combination with the win cons work. That is, is there a check prior to a possession happening where if no lynch happened and everyone was town would a possession happen still or would it count as a victory for town? Realistically, if there is a chance that that is the case, then today would be the only chance we have to win as town for sure by no lynching and (praying) no possession happened by the end of the night. Any other path leads to someone winning as scum. Who that person is though strictly depends on who gets possessed though.



@Scar: You've already shown that you throw caution to the wind. I fully expect that you would view this situation as one where you kill me as I described above to prove everything I am saying. Question: What do you think about the scenario where today may be the only chance to win as town? Because that scenario requires absolute trust in me that I am not lying.

Eli


You're going to have to do better than that.

Yes, I have openly said I was mafia for part of N2 and all of N3 until the end of that night. Where is the contradiction in that? There is a contradiction in what I said because I've theorized there are days where there are no scum? That's not a contradiction. If you believe my perspective, then that is a logical necessity given what I've put forth.

Now if you don't believe me at all, then you fall into Scar's line of thinking which is a bit more than how you're putting it across. Essentially, it would mean that I was scum ever since N1 (which would mean I became possessed after Rubik performed the kill). Then, and only then, would I be scum Day 2, Night 2, Day 3, and Night 3. This also means then that possession no longer rotates probably because of Neo's death. If all of that is the case, then yes, kill me.

If that isn't the case though? If I'm telling the absolute truth? Then what happens? Do you think town has any chance of winning after that?

I was not possessed during Day 2. I personally think that after Rubik killed Niklor possession swapped to Player X who - for whatever reason - completely forgot to kill someone. Maybe they didn't check there PM's. Maybe they wanted people to think that with Neosilk (the Blood Witch) dead possession was no longer a thing that mattered and so would have done nothing so that they could push for a Day 3 'No Lynch' to secure there victory. What I'm saying is I think you were Player X - you were possessed for Days 2 and 3.

This, as far as I'm concerned, leaves us with two possible situations;
1) KoD is still possessed. Neosilk's death did effect possessions - more accurately it stopped them moving. After his Day 3 No Lynch floundered he decided to kill numbers and make much the same claim Rubik had on Day 2 in the hopes someone else would be lynched instead.

2) Neosilk had no effect of possession and it was the act of killing that triggered a shift. KoD was possessed Day 2 but (for the reasons I mention above) didn't kill anyone. When his Day 3 No Lynch floundered, knowing he had already been singled out as a prime candidate for possession, he cut his losses and killed Numbers at which point possession shifted. In this scenario KoD is clean (previously possessed) and Scarlet is clean (my ability informs me as such). So the possessed player is either myself or Elijin.

Scar


So I completely ditched playing it safe D2 and went for broke D3 by trying to convince everyone of a NL so I could win? Sure that's entirely plausible given that I'm looking at this from a perspective not my own.



Change. Let's talk about change. So if I had definite knowledge of how possession worked and knew I was still possessed (meaning that I knew possession did not change each night as Rubik had stated due to Neo's death), then I just decide to stop playing safe like I did D2 and pursue a course of action that no one, as town, would pursue due to a chance scum might still be around? The downside to this, aside from not being safe in the least since it puts me out as the prime person to look at, is that it should guarantee my death then once it becomes obvious scum is still alive. That leads into issues such as why come out in the first place like now or why kill again (confirming scum exist) etc etc. That's too much metagaming even for me... (That's not entirely true, I could sit and talk all day with you about what-ifs, but it will eventually lead to WIFOM when considering what I would do. You'd have to know me as a person or how my mind works to some degree to make reasonable assumptions as to what I would do.)

Actually, you are the only one who could make those assumptions. After all, you played with me in Kitten Mafia 5 where I had to play as scum. You also played with me in Shawshank Mafia where I was scum yet again.

Anyway, about the win con. Let's be real, and I mean REAL, pedantic about it. Scum win con, as per Rubik's words, is along the lines of "any possessed escape". Town win con is "no possessed escape". Yes, I realize that in order for scum to win they must escape... Which means solving the puzzle... Which means no lynch and no night kill... Which means ending the game. Tell me, what does the town win con entail from a pedantic point of view? No possessed escape. Ok, what does that mean? Well, it means we cannot let any possessed escape. Ok, that means what? It means at some point the game will have to end for us to see whether or no a possessed escapes. We, as town, can't win by ***not*** ending the game. We, as town, just have to make sure there is no one that is possessed when we do end the game (solve the puzzle).

Now, I am fully aware that if I am scum, then NL wins me the game. I fully recognize that. It's as obvious to me as the difference between day and night. My point of contention, aside from trying to earn your trust here, is the issue presented by any death today and what happens in the coming night/day cycles. No matter how you look at it, any death today will (as far as I was able to think out) result in a scum secured victory... Today's situation is the only one where I can honestly think that we may have a chance at winning by NL-ing. Course, I could be wrong about how the interaction works with possession and us NL-ing today in which case we'll lose anyway.

So really what I'm asking for is complete trust in me and enough faith to leap off a cliff and hope for a victory.

If I can't obtain the trust of you guys for that, then I await my death.

KoD:
One way or the other, there is a 90% chance the game will end tonight, because at a 1-1 scum wins (No majority so NL followed by whatever). The 10% is the no kill.
Voting yourself in lylo is a terrible move, even if it's a 3-1 Lylo. In fact, remember when you last made that move? When you were scum.

This indeed.

This is what I meant with 'which theory to follow'. One way leads to a KoD lynch, one way leads to a you/Eli lynch. So everyone is still suspect.

Unfortunately, due to the way the game played out (the Cultist death combined with the no kill in N2) both these theories are plausible.
The problem lies in the fact that once again we have a confirmed (previous?) scum asking us to trust us. The odds of that actually happening however, are a lot smaller because there is no longer any room for error. So a claim from someone who was scum 2 days, and actively tried the get the scum wincon during that time, will always be met with a lot of skepticism.

Preview edit
For starters: I rarely remember past games. I always look them back. That's also why I almost never check playstyles (it's a leftover from my start in the mafia scene when I had a 68% scum rate after 2 years. It was awesome and awful at the same time. I learned to keep playing the same way always that way)
1) Not if we lynch the scum.
2) And NON-death today will also result in a scum-secured victory (no kill).
So...umm...yeah

I was possessed Day 2 and night 2.

I was in a quick topic with NeoSilk. As I have said, in every post regarding this, a smart player will not try to kill during the night, when its likely a return to town status awaits them. Thus, when my true target was lynched, I opted to make no kill (Sorry Neo, I spent an extensive amount of time privately rule checking that I could team kill during Day 2).

I withheld this information day 3, to avoid people quickly trying to piggyback on a set of information I knew only myself, rubik and a possessed player would have. This is why every time I drove against KoD yesterday, I asked him to establish his information past a 'just believe me guys' state. Because I recognised information only possessed had been made privy too, and was trying to bait him into tripping in a way I could use. Unfortunately I was absent in the final moments on the day, and failed to utilise this, and the lynch went back to Rubik.

Upon the commencement of day 3, the possession had lifted. Apart from meaning its likely KoD is lying through his teeth (he claimed to be the night 2 killer), this means possession has no clear functioning parameters. The one thing I will remark on, is that after opting to not kill, the message I got from Alt was significantly different from the one informing me I was possessed. That combined with the very careful emphasis on the fact that you 'Dont HAVE to kill anyone if you dont want to' leaves me to suspect that there is somewhat of a prisoners gambit in play. The only correct move, was to make no move, which cleanses possession. Choosing to kill, furthers the trap and brings the possession closer to victory, on whatever hapless chap it befalls that night. I personally suspect that Im immune to further possession, but there arent enough days in the game for this to be worth anything.

So with this in mind, there is a world where possession still freely moves, in which case Garren is scum, or a world in which possession has locked down for the long run, in which KoD is possessed.

KoD, feel free to confirm or deny small details in wording and such I have presented here. You should recognise certain things from your possession.

@Garen:

1.) No problem here. It falls in line with Scar's line of thinking.

2.) Major problem here. If I'm clean and telling the truth, then I was not possessed during D2. No one came forward D3 about being possessed D2 which lends credit to what I'm saying about there being no possessed during D2 (a cooldown on possession if you will).

If you go with 2.), then belief in a pattern on how possession works shouldn't be far'fetched. It should also bring forth fear in the situation I've been talking about concerning lynching today and the consequences for town, as a whole, in the come night/day cycles.

Well, there goes my theory.
Work and fathers birthday means I'll probably be back Sunday.

I'm aware of the last time I made that move Scar. Wasn't terrible then since I didn't die. Don't you agree? After all, can't look back with 20/20 hindsight and tell me how terrible it was when no one aside from Eli tried to lynch me.

As for today, let's face it. I either die today or no one does. That should be obvious.



Nooooo, a thousand times no. If you guys follow the theory where you believe me, then you should critically consider what I've been telling you this entire time. When I was possessed, when I stopped being possessed, etc etc. All of that becomes important information to be considered if you guys believe me. That is, follow the theory that does not lead to my lynch.

If you don't believe me, then the answer is obvious. I die.



If you believe me, then I was scum only for 1 entire day (Day 3 when I pushed the NL). If you don't believe me, then I die.



1.) Only if you don't believe me. Then I am the one to lynch. If you believe me, then take heed with everything I am saying.
2.) That's debatable. If you believe me, then that leaves open a possibility where maybe we can win as town prior to possession actually occurring. Otherwise, even if you lynch someone other than me, we go into a situation where scum will kill someone and we have 1-1 which is scum victory anyway.

*Throws hands up in the air.*

YOU SON OF A >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Unvote

My mind has changed given something. There will be a reckoning.

Ok

Vote: Eli

Eli is scum. I am in complete, serious doubt about him being a possessed based strictly upon his post. I'll get to why in a moment. I'm on a quest elsewhere atm.

Ok, this is going to require a complete, skeptical breakdown of Eli's post. Let's get to it.

Prior to starting, let's establish the facts:

Oh wait

Ok, thought I saw something, but it was nothing.

Anyway, facts:

-Rubik stated he was possessed D1 and had killed Niklor N1. He also stated he was no longer possessed at the end of N1. We have no reason to distrust Rubik due to him being town as of his death.

-During D2 Eli wanted Rubik lynched.

- I have claimed killing Numbers on N3 and I have also claimed to have been possessed N2 and that I had the option to kill, but didn't which resulted in a no kill.

- No one confirmed Rubik D3.

Those are all facts prior to Eli's post. Now the situation has changed drastically, and we should consider the possibility that Eli is a cultist.

Now, let's get to the dirt. Eli has claimed a lot in his post which creates a huge issue with everything I've stated as well as an issue with something Rubik said. I'm going to type stream of consciously while addressing all of these points, item by item, as they arise in Eli's post.




Let me start by addressing the first and foremost thing of his post: He was possessed D2 and N2. If that is the case, then there are two big things to mention here (one of which is no irrelevant to a point). The first being that he never came forward to confirm everything Rubik had said. The second being that if he was possessed D2 and Neo was lynched that day, Eli would be the one that is perma possessed. With the first, obviously there are serious issues that I have with this, but he gave reasons that he felt justified his keeping quiet. So I will address this later when I encounter those in his post. As for him being perma possessed, obviously this can't be the case because I have claimed being possessed already; however, this also means I'm not perma possessed either because Eli is essentially establishing for us that possessions do happen independently of Neo's presence in the game. That, or Eli is lying. I'll move on to the first paragraph of his post.

Now, Eli claims to have been in a QT (quick topic) with Neo. This is a huge disconnect from both Rubik's experience and my own experience. Rubik stated he was in a QT with only one other person -- PopPa. I never mentioned anything about a QT, and that's because I was technically alone in it. Alt and Zinger were present to talk about unrelated game stuff, but for all intents and purposes I was "alone" in the QT. Obv Neo was dead by this point so this is null; yet, why is it that Rubik and PopPa were not in a QT with Neo either? Eli states he was going to change back to town and indeed did, so why would Neo even be put into a QT with him only to be revealed later? Answer: Eli's lying. Neo wasn't present with Rubik and PopPa so that gives us no reason to believe that just because PopPa died Neo would all of a sudden be placed into a QT with Eli despite the "fact" Eli would later change back to town. It's contradictory as far as I am concerned. Not only that, but Eli is claiming that he was going to NK Neo since he would go back to town. It may just be me, but I honestly think that is bull. That is, the idea Eli is spinning. The chances of what he is saying being the case are similar to a snowball's chance of not melting in hell. But wait, Neo was lynched so instead Eli decides to no hit which directly contradicts my claim to having missed the kill input. Nevermind that Eli didn't even start today off by even saying all this. He started today off insted with:



And that contains a few errors in itself (such as town who believed scum still rotate -- I killed on the off chance I wouldn't rotate as I had mentioned much earlier. Plus if I knew I wouldn't rotate (making me perma scum) I'd have to have been possessed N1, all of D2, and N2 as well going into D3 and N3 as was covered previously even though this can no longer be the case). Moving on to his next paragraph from the main post.

He withheld the information to prevent piggybacking on information he knew only himself, Rubik, and the possessed player would have. And he did this because he was trying to "trap" me, yet conveniently let Rubik die in the process due to failing to get back in time and prevent his lynch. Ok, so day starts out and we have no death. I start off with pushing the idea of a NL because hey, no deaths (more accurately I disagreed with Numbers about lynching Rubik since no one came forward to confirm possession which was a direct reason for me initially pushing a NL prior to my realization I was possessed and didn't send in the night kill when I was prompted in the role change). I believe for all of us here, minus Eli, that it takes no stretch of the imagination to realize that we could have avoided a town death easily had Eli not concealed the information in the first place. Assuming what he is saying is even true in the first place (which I don't believe it is at all). I personally don't believe anyone would have let Rubik die like that, but Eli is putting forth that idea. That he accidentally let Rubik die before he could get back. And all in the name of a "trap" to trap me yesterday when I was pushing the idea that there were no more spirits and we could NL. Moving on to the next paragraph.

Huh, well that is remarkable. Eli is right about the clause of not having to kill if you don't want to. In choosing not to kill, and possession passing, the next possessed got the opportunity to kill if they so wished. Being immune to possession I don't agree with though. There's no reason to believe that we can't be "targeted" again by a mechanic of the game that wants us possessed.

Now for the final lines of his post. The reality is, possessions do occur each night. I've got no reason to disbelieve Eli, now, that he was possessed to a point. It is possible that the cultists could have inside information as to how the possessions work after all. Essentially though, our most reasonable targets for lynch today should be Garen or Eli. Eli is the one I heavily favor of lynching today though. There are serious issues I have with Eli that will make it hard for me to switch off of him (him being in a QT with Neo for example).

Unvote

Scar, I'll need your input on all of this above. Plus, do you think 2-2-5 (2 scum, 2 "self" (cultists in this case), and 5 town) is a possible setup?



Explain the bolded Eli. What was this message? What was different?

Scar


Oh, you remember that game very distinctly. Kitten Mafia 5: The Kittens Strike Back. Ahylis's first mafia game. The huge pissing contests between him and I over how "terrible" my logic was and you voting Ben at the very end so my changing scum partner (two replacements that game) and I could pile onto Ben with you? I know you remember Ahylis's and my clashing.

Good news everyone. I've been informed that I was possessed just before D3 started (literally).

So never mind what I was saying about me doing a no hit. It was, for all intents and purposes, Eli.

Well, maybe. I'm still a little touchy on the whole Eli not speaking up to save Rubik thing which still makes me think he may be lying. But as far as me being able to perform a kill N2, it looks like that was not the case at all. For reference, and I think I am allowed to say this, I was possessed 6 minutes before D3 had officially started. I imagine I was not allowed to send in a kill.

Either way, that leaves us in a similar situation where it is either Garen or Eli that is the possessed for today.

And I'm betting Eli is the possessed one today. While it is true that Garen could be possessed, we have no reason to assume we are immune to possession after having been possessed. Not to mention Eli has just tried spinning a situation where I am still scum even though it would be he that is the "locked down" scum.

So I'm going to stick to my guns.

Vote: Eli

I'll be frank. At this point, I'm planning on keeping my vote on Eli. Scar, unless you can come up with a very very very good reason why I should go after Garen, I suggest that when the time comes you vote Eli as well. Garen, obviously you're not going to vote yourself, so you can place a vote on Eli. Your opinion on all of this is welcome though. Scar, take all the time you need coming to a decision. Just make sure to vote and/or start a discussion with us before we get to deadline.

KoD you really need to stop doing 'stream of thought' posting. That was a hurdle to get over. That said with Eli confirming he was possessed during day 2 and possession passing despite the fact he didn't kill means that my two theories were wrong. Still KoD is clean and Scarlet is clean so I pretty much only have one course of action remaining to me.

Vote: Elijin

KoD: Serious question.

Do you think a repossession is possible or is it more likely that ghosts do not repossess people?
I'm pretty sure I know the answer to that question, but still.

I find it extremely unlikely that the possession sticks to KoD now because of Eli's claim regarding D2. That Eli did not come forward at that time, I can also sorta understand and if he thought that possession would go away from him again, even the no kill makes sense (odds are small that he would turn again before the game is over).

(No, I do not consider 5-2-2)

The other candidate is Garren. If repossession is not a thing, Garren is the only target left on account of him clearing me himself, and KoD/Eli already having been possessed.
However, the psychic claim today that I am clean is horrible for scum Garren. Now the question is: is a scum Garren good enough with reverse psychology to clear me, which would be the worst option for him mathematically? Or is he simply town?

I'll read everything big sunday.

Sorry Garen. The stream of thought typing is a thing for me. It helps me get everything I am thinking out. While it may be messy, I do believe it is necessary to consider all things.

Scar, I honestly don't know. I'd say it is possible though. Mainly because everything could have played out differently had PopPa never been lynched. Two spirits jumping around and two town deaths at the start, I'm sure we would see repossessions happening.

What I can't say for sure is whether the mechanic requires everyone to be possessed first before repeats happen or if the possessions are random. The first option is too predictable and I would favor the chaos of random possessions to keep things interesting. But that is just my opinion.

I will say this . Unlike you and Garen, Eli presented me as an option despite the knowledge he had before us. This makes me question him.

As for Garen,it's one way or the other with him. I can't metagaming with him because it can go either way. I don't know him well enough to guess what he would likely do. All I know is I have reason to suspect Eli. I don't have reason, generated by the individual, to suspect Garen. Reason from the game isn't good enough since, to me, either situation concerning repossession seems probable. That's why o choose to believe it is possible without everyone having been possessed and that's why I feel more confident voting eli than I do garen.