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Eon I think you have solved turbo(ish) fog in this format. I have only done a little testing, but it is performing very well. I consider Obelisk to be the main win condition, it is pretty easy to get 2 on the board and once you do you can pretty much lock down the board. Obelisk + fog is just so good. This deck just gets so much usage out of obelisk by creating a permanent stall state.
I have been having similarly good results. I think the real upgrade here was going with Satyr/Soothsayer, I hesitated on Satyrs, but after testing them they just performed too good NOT to run. This got me back to running Bounty, which was certainly good here, but was a bit unwieldy in terms of cost and didn't do much to help keep us alive itself outside of potentially filtering into a Fog/PC. Soothsayer fills the same role but does so for cheaper and the body certainly is VERY significant.
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I think the worst matchup is U or U/W evasion decks that have light counterspell support. I lost one game where I could have stalled the game for at least 5 more turns due to having my archaeomancer nullified... but if I had played differently and used my treasured finds first in order to stock up on fogs in advance, the game might have played out differently. I don't think stuffing the deck with counterspells is worth it.
I agree completely, counterspells in general have the capacity to really wreck us, especially in decks aggressive enough to put us on a quick clock. The only real outs to Nullify/Negate is to have enough Fog/PC effects in hand (and enough mana up) to cast a second Fog/PC the same turn, or having a counterspell of your own up.
Having the counterspell support ourselves requires running enough counterspells to make having one when you need it consistent, but that means diluting the deck down, and taking out pieces of the deck that are required to make it function to jam them in.
At most I think this deck only has maybe 1-2 slots to really play around with that aren't integral to making the deck function (Suffer and potentially 1 copy of Treasured Find)
After trying to make it work, I don't think it is worth the effort, better to just accept the bad matchup and occasionally take a loss.
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I am not 100% sure about the mana, I have ended up using the soothsayer to fetch land surprisingly often, which shows you how good the satyr is. So far I haven't had a game where I stumbled on mana.
The mana could maybe use some work, I haven't really had any mana issues so far myself, but I HAVE in fact used Soothsayer to fetch up land a few times already, so it may be something to look into. The Soothsayer issue could just be an issue with how the deck functions as a whole. Ideally you want to hit Obelisk or PC off of it. If you don't hit/take either of these, you are likely hitting/taking a Fog or recursion to grab a Fog. If you already have a decent amount of Fog effects in hand when this occurs there often isn't really any reason NOT to grab a land instead, since the Fog isn't needed right away, and is often just as good in your GY as it is in your hand. Whereas every land you play not only increases how much you can do each turn, but also counts as a permanent in regards to Elixir, thinning your library in those long games where we cycle our GY with Elixir.
The mana base seems to be a real pain because the deck really needs each color about equally.
You need
early for Wall, Safe Passage, and Warden, and
generally ASAP to use PC.
You need
early for Fog, Satyr, Treasured Find, and Soothsayer.
You need
( or
) relatively early for Think Twice, Archaeomancer, Warden, and Soothsayer.
You need
relatively early for Soothsayer and Treasured Find.
The least important color is probably
but we still need it to cast Warden, and since the difference between having a Fog or not can often come down to being able to cast Warden, this still can be pretty important.
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The various bodies in this deck are quite relevant. Sometimes you chump, allowing you to delay fog. Sometimes you safe passage, allowing your crappy creatures to gang block a fatty. But most of all once you hit cleansing to reset the board and land an obelisk, a 3/3 or a 2/5 is terrifying with obelisk support. One thing I think would really help this deck is some sort of a flying creature that provides utility. Unfortunately there are incredibly few options to work with here.
Yeah, they may not seem like much, but this deck can create a lot of openings where you have a clear board to slam in (after a PC reset, or after an opponent attacks all in and you Fog and have a Fog in hand for the following turn so don't need blockers and can freely attack in with everything). Even Satyrs provide a decent clock with Obelisk support. I have watched a few people who weren't paying attention attack right into Wall of Omens when I had Obelisk untapped as well.
As for your suggestion about a flying creature. I considered maybe trying to run a single copy of
Rune-Scarred Demon. It would give us another way to fetch Obelisk/PC or even continue the Fog game in a pinch (grabbing a Fog effect or recursion effect). With all the filtering the card would likely pop up pretty often even as a 1-of still as well.
I have a few concerns about this idea though, mainly that the deck only runs 2 cards that can snatch it up from the yard (Treasured Find) so the consistency will suffer even with all the filtering. It would also mean being a bit more concerned with hitting
which can be annoying. The cost could potentially be prohibitive in regards to keeping Fog mana up on the turn you cast it as well(although I guess this is less of an issue if it is the followup after a PC reset).
..........and I just realized how stupid good
Soul of Ravnica is here.
Now I am really tempted to find a place for this somewhere here.
Would give us a big meaty evasive threat that can block flyers, and the draw effect seems like it would be STUPID good here. Having Warden+Soothsayer on the table at the same time isn't uncommon at all, and repeatedly drawing 5 cards is pretty clutch. Even without that uber setup the deck runs enough creatures of each different color to where I would think it would average out to about 3-4 cards per activation. We don't even have to resolve the thing for it to be potentially good since we can easily mill into it and Exile it from the yard.
Now the question becomes what the hell do I cut to make room for it >.<