I did not blindly assume anything based on what was put in front of me like Nik did. I did not assume he was town just because he assumes so and Neo's one result gives only one possible outcome.
As excited as I would be to be clear, we shouldn't just use the guardsman list to clear people. To support feelings, sure, but we shouldn't rely on it. If I suddenly do something very strange, look closely at it.
He reminds town not to look at Neosilk's result blindly. Which is the exact opposite of your accusation.
I may have jumped around with my accusations up to this point but that does not matter. I fully back what I go after with reasons be they good or bad. That's what everyone should do.
But you didn't jump around with accusations. You latched onto Neosilk, and then latched onto Niklor. Not much jumping around.
After some sleep and thinking there are a few possibilities for Neosilk's results.
1. I am the wolf. I know this is not the case, putting it here for completeness.
2. I am the healer. I know this is not the case, putting it here for completeness.
3. I am the hunter and targeted Zinger last night or the healer's target. I know this is not the case, putting it here for completeness.
4. The doc targeted me. There is no reason I can think of where this would be the case
5. The doc targeted Neosilk. The role information seems to suggest that Neosilk would be near his target. With the vagueness of his result, I wonder if he picked up the healer targeting him. Far fetched I know, but given what I know this is the most likely case.
i'm behind right now, haven't had the will to work through the walls of text in my sickness, i should catch up and post something more significant today
Which walls of text? You've been posting since the day began. What else is there to catch up on?
I generally go weeks without posting at a time and am often replaced in games where i'm scum. lurking isn't the right word for it so much as innactivity is.
I decided seTiny isn't scum because he said some heartwarming things about neosilk
unvote
i am a little suspicious of KoD because he does seem like the type of person who would make a power play along the lines of lynching zinger and trying to push a lynch on a pseudo-confirmed niklor.
@ NEOSILK : do you think tiny would sire you if he was the wolf?
I generally go weeks without posting at a time and am often replaced in games where i'm scum. lurking isn't the right word for it so much as innactivity is.
So when you get selected as scum you just don't play?
yeah basically. not intentionally mind you. I'm usually active at the start of the game but my activity quickly drops to zero by the end. There are some exceptions too, its just a trend.
you said you'd sire neosilk if you were the wolf and rubik was sired so you can't be the wolf.
If he guessed that I was guardsman (which I could see him guessing) then yeah - I think anyone would sire anyone that they thought had a role.
Tiny - I do want to believe you. I think I mentioned it, but I could see getting the false positive on you due to the doc targeting me during the night. I really don't know. I can say that, now that you are in the spotlight, you're quite a bit more active than you were earlier.
King has been all over the place, and, as was pointed out, was sure that xxx was the wolf quite a bit. However, how he's been doing it really seems like town to me.
@Neosilk: It doesn't matter if you believe me or not when I flip everything I said will be confirmed. Don't give KoD a free pass. Besides Niklor he has the closest link to Rubik from day 1. Looking back over day 2 he has the closest link to Zinger.
No, you're not the best datapoint because we don't know whether or not we can trust Tiny. All we have is his word to go on that he is vanilla town. Only way to test his word and Neo's result is to lynch him. Otherwise, by lynching you, we potentially prove that you're town (or the wolf as I like to believe but I'm entertaining the town notion for this argument), but that says nothing about Tiny since he could be lying. Do you want to bank the game on assuming Tiny is telling the truth despite Neo potentially knowing something happened that night and being drunk?
Don't get me wrong, I understand there is a chain lynch in the works here since I am gunning for you, but you've done nothing to seriously sway me in regards to Lilan.
Tiny can really only be a datapoint if he is town. If he isn't, well GG everyone. You can argue that he is the better lynch because if he's town he casts some doubt on Neosilk's results and if he's scum we win, but I don't see that as better on the side of purely being a datapoint. Proving Neo's ability has some truth to it is probably more important than proving it won't work all the time. If you think Tiny is lying scum, than maybe he is the better lynch, but not because of the data he will provide if he flips town.
If I flip, it shows there appears to be a situation is which Neo provides accurate results. Which means results that don't specify he drank too much are probably fairly trustworthy. In my mind, that is more valuable as a datapoint because it may clear someone during this coming night. What does Tiny provide us if he flips town? It provides us doubt over his next result. Proving he can get the wrong result under some circumstances is less valuable than proving he can get the right result under other circumstances.
So, from purely a perspective of providing data, I am the better lynch.
i'm behind right now, haven't had the will to work through the walls of text in my sickness, i should catch up and post something more significant today
Sure, just bandwagon because Tiny says so. Don't explain why you think this is the best move or anything...
Honestly, I think that both Niklor and King are town, and are too focused on each other. I think that Freddeh is town as well.
Which, leaves Tiny and Lilan. Clearly, I was more suspicious of Tiny, which is why I targeted him.
I don't want the doc to claim, however, if the Doc decided to outguess the wolf, and not target me, assuming that the wolf would not waste his kill on someone that was expected to be saved, and the Doc targeted Tiny, I could see why I would have gotten the results that I got. However, I think that's unlikely.
Vote: Tiny
I don't think I'm that focused on KoD at all. What makes you say that?
While potentially we could have the doc claim today and have Neo watch the doc while the doc heals Neo, it is probably not the best plan. It is an option, though. Personally, on the offchance of Lylo getting pushed back a day by some clever healer outguessing of the wolf, I'd prefer to wait until tomorrow to claim.
Tomorrow is probably a good day to claim, though it's also riskiest since we don't know the roles of the deceased Pariah and Zinger and probably whoever gets offed tonight. If we do consider any sort of claim tomorrow, Neo should probably generate the list tomorrow to order how we claim so the wolf is less likely to get the chance to fake claim a power role. Not foolproof, but better than nothing.
My top target as of right now is KingofDominaria. He started the day by getting out in front of Neosilk and continued even though Neosilk had new information. Pushing hard on Niklor, and using the exact reason that Niklor think's he's town as a reason. Certain that Niklor is the wolf and Neosilk's results mean nothing.
And KoD starts the hunt against me for reasons. Doubtless he will explain after he gets people to look back and generate their own conclusions, but I honestly find myself less suspicious of him. Since there is only one wolf, the risk of leaving a loosely confirmed townie alive over the night and recklessly hunting him the first day seems as bold as I can imagine most players going. With a scumteam of at least 2, I could believe it, but by himself? No, KoD just moved himself firmly towards town in my mind.
First, the overall reason I'm voting Niklor is due to him not having been the night kill for last night. WIFOM aside, this game, if viewed in the light that Neo is right about Niklor, has two "confirmed" town along with an additional townie having been revealed (Zinger). That lowers the numbers for the wolf to hide severely. Rather, why wouldn't the wolf off one of the two "confirmed" town? If there is a healer, we know it will be on Neo. But what about Nik? The wolf has no need to rely upon the unpredictable nature of the tracker's role since he knows the alignments of everyone. Yet why let someone who will be viewed as town live? What if it is because that person is actually the wolf who was wrongfully cleared?
This is one reason why I view Nik to be the wolf.
Without knowing who Neosilk targeted he also begins to thrash at his results. Trying to place doubt on Neosilk's results. I'm thinking he was scared he was the target and was going to be revealed.
Now, about Neo's result on you: That result along doesn't give us the ***full picture*** of his role. His second result, together with his first, won't give us the ***full picture*** of his role. More "data" or "information" is needed to get a ***full picture*** of his role. To that end, when Neo starts up a new discussion over his second result, we'll be able to get an idea of his role. For example:
Imagine he comes back and says that Lilan was the one he targeted. Neo said he drank heavily that night and that Lilan left her house. Lilan then claims she never left his house. We are left with two actions to take as a town -- kill Lilan or kill someone else. The decision we make will have to be based on something. What should it be based on? The fact that he is sure someone left their house? The fact that he knows, and told us, he drank heavily that night? It gets better. What if we do kill Lilan, but it turns out she was town and Neo was wrong with his result? Does that mean Nik is still cleared? Obviously it wouldn't.
The thing with Fred is because of his comment to me near the end of D2 when he said, "you know I will," in regards to him coming and posting. He posted, just nothing useful. That's why I said what I did to him because he should put effort into at least something for me. Other than that, not relevant.
And yet again, you're not confirmed except in your own mind.
All Neo has to go off of is:
1. N1 - He was told that he had been drinking. He was told that you didn't leave your house. 2. N2 - He was told he had been drinking heavily. He was told that he definitely saw his target leave their house.
The mod flat out told Neo that not everything about his role would be revealed to him. So the full extent of his role is not known to any of us. Because of this, we don't know (this is a fact and can't be disputed) exactly ***how*** Neo's role works. Does him drinking mean he is good at his job or bad? Does him not drinking make him good or bad at his job?
For all we know, the fact that he drank means he gets a negative for his result and a positive for when he doesn't drink -- Meaning that since he didn't drink the first N1, he must have got a positive (the person actually left their house), and on N2 when he did drink he got a negative (the person didn't actually leave their house -- he just imagined it). That's just one scenario for how his role might work. Perhaps the drinking is not relevant in any sense and his role just alternates with his results each day.
Then his tone and demeanor change after Neosilk reveals that I was his target rather than KoD. He also tries to cast doubt on my response before I even make one. Again a preemptive strike, setting the tone and discussion. Just as he did at the beginning of the day.
This situation is just ripe for discussion. Aren't you glad you claimed Neo?
There's only one claim Tiny can make. Well, unless he wants to claim Wolf and die at our hands.
But anyway... Question is will we believe him?
Day 1 he was 100% certain that Neosilk was scum. Day 2 he was certain Neosilk was scum, but also immediately made it clear he was voting for Rubik. Day 2 he was being challenged by Zinger, who conveniently died last night. Also leaving the Niklor is scum because he is alive case he was pushing early day 3.
To me, this is mostly just what makes him read as town to me. And the Zinger thing could be meant to connect his death to KoD. It is what makes me really feel he is town, the fact he is tunneling so hard, changing position slightly as new info appears, but focusing hard nonetheless. Is pro-town to tunnel hard, not particularly, but it reads as very sincere to me.
I did not blindly assume anything based on what was put in front of me like Nik did. I did not assume he was town just because he assumes so and Neo's one result gives only one possible outcome.
I am fairly certain I know my own alignment. So either it's fact or I'm lying. Can't really assume my own alignment when I already know it.
Barring crazy bastardity on the part of Numbers, which I suppose is possible, but feel is unlikely.
I've been back and forth with Lilan. She is very quick to change her mind and go along with someone else's plan. Not really providing one herself. Though I have no idea if this is normal for her. Rubik stated that when she plays scum she lurks. She did push a lynch all lurkers day 1. Which might have been in response to the last game and knowing there may have been a focus on lurkers this game.
It is harder to lurk when there is aggressive anti-lurker sentiment. As for what her playstyle is, eh... Playstyle arguments are a hard sell and a player can potentially use his or her own playstyle to his advantage to make people believe something. So, I'm not to sold on not thinking about someone's actions just because that is how they usually play when on team X.
Niklor is town in my book. He was the only one to challenge my let rubik turn discussion. Zinger made a drive by comment about thinking it was scummy but nothing else. Lilan agreed with using the huntsman to kill. KoD slightly defended it by reminding Niklor that it was a joke. In that and other exchanges Niklor's responses were never anti-town. If he does end up being the wolf then well played.
I think I was not the only one against it, though maybe I did discuss it more than the others. I certainly remember someone jumping on you the first time you suggested it. Have to look back to see who, but I know it wasn't me.
I did not blindly assume anything based on what was put in front of me like Nik did. I did not assume he was town just because he assumes so and Neo's one result gives only one possible outcome.
As excited as I would be to be clear, we shouldn't just use the guardsman list to clear people. To support feelings, sure, but we shouldn't rely on it. If I suddenly do something very strange, look closely at it.
He reminds town not to look at Neosilk's result blindly. Which is the exact opposite of your accusation.
It is slightly strange he accuses me of being nowhere near confirmed town when the basis of his attack on me is the fact I didn't die when I was practically confirmed town, now that I think about it. Still, that kind of inconsistency reeks more of tunneling to me than scheming and lying.
Also, I do practically consider myself confirmed at this point. Not 100%, but enough that I find KoD's strange refusal of Neo's new revelation about drinking too much to be somewhat odd.
I generally go weeks without posting at a time and am often replaced in games where i'm scum. lurking isn't the right word for it so much as innactivity is.
I decided seTiny isn't scum because he said some heartwarming things about neosilk
unvote
This random switching of things based on feelings every few hours is what makes me so suspicious of you, Rag. It's too easy for scum to hide behind it. It may be accurate to say you play this way as town, but I don't see what prevents you from playing this way as scum.
i am a little suspicious of KoD because he does seem like the type of person who would make a power play along the lines of lynching zinger and trying to push a lynch on a pseudo-confirmed niklor.
Or you want people to think he is that type of person and it's why you made that play instead.
yeah basically. not intentionally mind you. I'm usually active at the start of the game but my activity quickly drops to zero by the end. There are some exceptions too, its just a trend.
you said you'd sire neosilk if you were the wolf and rubik was sired so you can't be the wolf.
So if I say I would've sired you if I was the wolf, does that make me innocent? I mean, what even is this logic.
_________________
"In the end, both heroes and villians are naught but furballs."
9:02 AM - Mown: Honestly though most anime characters don't look that anime. 4:06 AM: Grue: you can't put all ur problems on enchantments
[quote="Niklor"]While potentially we could have the doc claim today and have Neo watch the doc while the doc heals Neo, it is probably not the best plan. It is an option, though. Personally, on the offchance of Lylo getting pushed back a day by some clever healer outguessing of the wolf, I'd prefer to wait until tomorrow to claim.
Tomorrow is probably a good day to claim, though it's also riskiest since we don't know the roles of the deceased Pariah and Zinger and probably whoever gets offed tonight. If we do consider any sort of claim tomorrow, Neo should probably generate the list tomorrow to order how we claim so the wolf is less likely to get the chance to fake claim a power role. Not foolproof, but better than nothing.[quote]
Feel like I should highlight this bit to make sure people read it and respond to it.
Do you think this is wise? Do you think mass claiming today would be wiser? Do you think mass claiming at all is stupid? What do you think we should do assuming we mislynch today and tomorrow remains Lylo?
_________________
"In the end, both heroes and villians are naught but furballs."
9:02 AM - Mown: Honestly though most anime characters don't look that anime. 4:06 AM: Grue: you can't put all ur problems on enchantments
Not being able to ninja edit broken quote tags is rather annoying even if its my own fault for not previewing first. I think back on Wizards if you edited fast enough, it didn't say it was edited. Was very useful.
_________________
"In the end, both heroes and villians are naught but furballs."
9:02 AM - Mown: Honestly though most anime characters don't look that anime. 4:06 AM: Grue: you can't put all ur problems on enchantments
Not being able to ninja edit broken quote tags is rather annoying even if its my own fault for not previewing first. I think back on Wizards if you edited fast enough, it didn't say it was edited. Was very useful.
IIRC, that was only in one incarnation of the forums. Right before Gleemax, I believe. Or maybe right after the switch to Gleemax. I remember a couple people got caught trying to ninja edit right after it quit doing that. Good times.
i don't know whether you're telling the truth or not
Assuming I am telling the truth and am not the wolf, it's hard to say who I would have sired with any real certainty. I probably try to consider what people will think of certain actions if discovered when I'm playing scum. So, I can't say for sure you'd have been the one since certain conclusions might have led me to decide you'd be a poor choice.
But I am certain that if I played by instinct instead it would've been you because playing on jokes is the best sort of play to make.
IIRC, that was only in one incarnation of the forums. Right before Gleemax, I believe. Or maybe right after the switch to Gleemax. I remember a couple people got caught trying to ninja edit right after it quit doing that. Good times.
I could ninja edit when I played in Paranoia Paradise, which I think was the version of the forums before the current version. I can apparently ninja edit on this forum, though. Yay. That may come in useful, later, if I screw up a quote tag in the future. Not saying that I'm the type to break the rules you've firmly laid down or anything like that.
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