I still want argent instigators

I mean, the Johnny in me likes it, but I dislike the lose the game effect outside of constructed. Too many variables. If you are ahead, it's a useless 4/1 because maybe they have a Fog. If you're behind, you need a very specific set up. Otherwise, it's just a weak and untargetable Roast

alright, if we took the scent it's time to commit to nomads.

Avalanche, then Goldkin.

Pick 9
Hoo boy. Two big contenders. Blessing is a decent combat trick that we can easily make pretty freakin sweet. On the other hand Mumbling Avalanche has to be one of the top picks for nomads and if it wheeled back to us...
Mumbling Avalanche.

Pick 10
Goldkin because it is a good nomad.

Yikes...this is an interesting commentary on drafting...we recently stated Archers was open and jumped on it...now we're bailing on our picks and moving back into Nomads.

This is pure fickleness. I ask, are Hasty Nomads which will probably be blocked better...or is a strong combat trick which could be an awesome combat trick better?

These choices seem to push us in either Nomad or Archer direction. To me, it seems like we get more betting on Archer than we do betting on Nomad.

Edit: Given Redgrass...maybe, but I think seeing two at once is influential in a way regular draft wouldnt be...

Yep, I agree. 'Lanche, Goldkin.

for information, let's compare these packs the first time with the second:

missing from pack 1:
Oneblade's Buccaneer (U)
Magnificent Bowerling (U)
Farsea Adventurer
Burgeoning Heartcap
Tidal Echoes
Brownie Attack
Fledgling Herd

missing from pack 2:
Draconem Path (U)
Farsea Adventurer
Bower Trap
Pitiless Execution
Tarflinger
Portbound Ancient
Lightkin Tacticians

pack 1 is missing a pirate, monk, scout, druid, advisor, and nomad, while pack 2 is missing a scout, barbarian, advisor, and advisor nomad. I'm guessing we have a Scout deck that took the Adventurers, an Advisor deck that took Echoes and Ancient, and a Nomad deck that took Herd and Tacticians. with those educated guesses, we're left with:

missing from pack 1:
Oneblade's Buccaneer (U)
Magnificent Bowerling (U)
Burgeoning Heartcap
Brownie Attack

missing from pack 2:
Draconem Path (U)
Bower Trap
Pitiless Execution
Tarflinger

lining up by color, I'm guessing the Bowerling went with the Trap and the Execution went with the Heartcap. the Buccaneer probably went with the Tarflinger as a dork in a Barbarian list, and the Path and Attack in... I don't know, those don't really make sense together.

that leaves our most likely opponents as:

Scouts
Advisors
Nomads
Monks
Druids
Barbarians?
Pirates?

of course, highly speculative and not really worth much until we see what else is missing later down the road but it's useful to start compiling.

with that said, when pick 9 rolls around we know fledgling herd is missing, so the Nomad plan seems a little less solid. we don't know where it went but it was probably fairly early, it's one of the stronger missing cards, which means pack 2 we may get cut out of Nomads. it's possible we may have then cut them hard enough that they bailed on it though.

That seemed like a lot of words that said nothing...I'm drunk though, and I was probably looking for something that said "See, we're cool going back into Nomad."

I did not see that argument, what I saw was "We took a good Nomad card, and while it looks like peeps are in Nomad, it's ok that we shoot for it." I also saw, "No one is picking Archers, we have some good Trolls, and we have some good Archer/Troll cards."

Right now, it seems like not picking Archer/Troll hurts more than not picking Nomad depending on pack 2.

so the major conclusions we can draw don't really manifest until we see pick 10, so we can't draw much from it for pick 9. on 9, we know the Herd is missing which should give us pause, but on the other hand three green cards are missing, which is its own problem. then again there were 4 green cards in the original pack, but still it means if we wade into green we have a fight on our hands.

I'm not really sure whether Blessing or Avalanche is the pick on 9. whichever we pick likely informs pick 10, although Goldkin isn't bad in Archers either. not great but not bad.

Avalanche, then Goldkin.

can we have new packs, you skiver rush?

I don't tend to post much on Sunday/Monday, so most of those will likely go without an update unless I somehow find my way to a computer. Or raz pesters me enough.

Mumbling Avalanche - 4
Borrogrove's Blessing - 1
Argent Instigators - 1

Menacing Goldkin - 4
Shorewatch Beacon - 1



Pack 1, Pick 11:
Torchlight Volley
Uncharted Waters
Devastating Monsoon
Emblazoned Forerunner
Mountain



You don't have to post your picks for these last two since they're rather automatic, but I'm posting them because it feels natural.

Uncharted Waters, Mumbling Avalanche, Redgrass Hunter


Take enough Waters and we can actually play our ww spells and gg spells in the same deck?

Pick 11: Uncharted or Torchlight. Tough choice, but since nothing's at stake I'll take a risk on uncharted and live the tricolour dream.
Pick 12: Avalanche. Wow that is a clear signal.
Pick 13: The mispelled card is supposed to be Treetop Sovereign. So do we want a good card that we may not get full value out of or a mediocre card in tribe? I say Sovereign.

Waters, Mumbles, Hunter

Nomads seems to be aggro, a 2/1 for 1 in color is probably better than a piker out,

waters isn't anywhere near good enough fixing to support a three-color deck on its own. it's for light splashes. out best bet is if we happen to grab a redgrass outpost, but none of our green cards so far are Centaurs anyway.

I'm saying Volley, it's probably not maindeckable but it's relevant sideboard. another Avalanche is almost certainly better than Vessel. Pack 13 I don't think we're running green so the Hunter. it's not great in limited but if it gets in some early damage that's cool and it can be a decent body for any fledgling herds, whitewing raid leaders, or whatnot that we happen upon.

also, let's compile more data:















I'll suss out some meaning in a bit but first there's some data.

some really raw, simple analysis:

Waters, Avalanche, Hunter, Coating.