TL;DR:

Nik is the wolf. I have solid reason to support it as well as clear instances of suspicious behavior on his part.

I'm open to more questions. Any more questions?

Well, since my suspect posted, but didn't really say anything, I'll do it now.

So - when I got my role, I did ask if I would know how many pints I had each night, and was told that I would not expressly know.

The first night, when I targeted Niklor I was told that, when I was sitting and drinking, I didn't see anyone leave the house.

Last night, I was told that I got myself situated, and I drank and drank and drank.
I was told that, by the end of the night, I was hazy, but I was positive that someone left the house, or that someone came to the house. In the end, I was told that I know something happened, but I don't know who or what.

So - I'm taking the information at face value, I'm hopeful that the number of drinks I've had didn't completely change what I saw/remembered, just that it made things a bit less clear.

Again, based on the PM, I'm assuming that my target was either the wolf, or was targeted by the doc. Or maybe one other thing.

Target for last night was Tiny.

doc wouldn't have targeted tiny

tiny is either the doc or the wolf and i'd like to see him claim

This situation is just ripe for discussion. Aren't you glad you claimed Neo?

There's only one claim Tiny can make. Well, unless he wants to claim Wolf and die at our hands.

But anyway... Question is will we believe him?

Oh, so that's all that said. Thanks for saving me the effort of reading it.

Not the wolf.

I'm sure a question or two might show up in a bit.



While not truly confirmed, I find it more crazy to doubt Neo given what little we do know at this time. Anyway, we can agree to disagree on what we know and what we can surmise.



Thank you for longwinded opinion that the wolf would never take a high risk reward move no matter what and that you think we need to keep such an openmind about Neo's ability that we can't use it to any extent. Well, that might not be your opinion, but it seems to be what you say.

I disagree on both points. Wolf might take such a risk because he just might. It's not a life/death situation. It's a game. The wolf might enjoy doing crazy things that risk losing him the game. Furthermore, if we don't know the situation regarding the roles, who is to say the wolf isn't able to tell the dead's role.

On the other hand, you want to keep such an openmind on what Neo's role might or might not do that you don't see to want to use it at all.

In short, I think you are starting to tunnel a little bit. You want to use logic that only supports your case rather than have any sort of consistency. That is my opinion. Also makes you feel really town to me.



See, I see it differently. I am looking for the simple explanation to how the role works. He has been told his info may not always be accurate because of his drinking. Not told anything special regarding his drinking N1. Told he drank too much N2 and it altered the result. This to me leads me to the conclusion that his role is setup so that he is informed in he drank too much and the result was inaccurate because of it.

Is it perhaps the wrong conclusion to make? Of course, that is always a risk, but it's enough for me to place my faith in his ability is useful and that it probably works in that fashion.

So no, it isn't just because I confirm his ability, it's because of how his results were told to him.



Unless we know everything, there is always the chance to make the wrong assumption. However, given that we at most get one more result from Neo, I don't think it's wrong to assume the ability is functional to some degree and provides useful info to town. Maybe it's a completely bastard useless role, but I have faith that it isn't.

Huh, guess I had no questions. Oh well.

We can agree to disagree. Now since you skipped over it, what about Neo's current result on Tiny? Thoughts?

I am back from vacation, tomorrow I am back to regular schedule. I had no intention of posting tonight. I was going to catch up and post tomorrow after I've rested. However Neosilk's result have me puzzled. I am Vanilla Town. I have no explanation as to his results.

Lynch me. It's the only way to confirm I am telling the truth, plus you will have another data point for Neo's ability. I have nothing else to offer.

Just don't stop looking today because you have a lynch candidate. Yesterday the wolf was able to simply say he was on board with a Rubik lynch and hide among town. We had no vote count to look back on for day 2. The 24 hour extension gave us the ability to switch our votes to Rubik after a vote. Instead everyone was content on letting the day end with nothing. Day 1 was a lurker lynch and another wagon the wolf could hide in.

Tomorrow is the last day for finding the wolf, since there will only be 4 alive (Unless the healer saves). Use what is left of today to narrow down your scum list.

Yes, I clearly skipped over it. Wasn't waiting for Tiny to come forward or anything.



So either the wolf or Neo really needs to visit AA. I personally would lean towards wolf, but I could see both. Being in an extremely drunken state, wouldn't be too surprised if Neo's result could be wrong.



I don't see a huge benefit to providing that datapoint. If you are indeed town, it mostly proves that Neo's results are subject to fallacy and mean, going forward into tomorrow, if his result says he was drunk we can't really trust what it said, plus it leaves me standing in doubt. As a datapoint, I am the better lynch because if I am town like I say it proves Neo's results can return a positive, which is probably more useful, but probably just means you would be the logical lynch tomorrow because if Neo's results seem to be able to return accurate answers, they just make you look more likely to be the wolf.

However, I think Lilan is the wolf. So, I'd rather prefer not to waste time starting a chain lynch that involves the two of us, whichever one we start with. Obviously, the huntsman could still be alive and kicking and could take out the wolf in a clutch play after tomorrow if we go that way, but I don't see much point if we are both town in proving Neo's ability can return true and false results that appear tied to how drunk he was. I mean, that is already the assumption I'm working with.

Lilan appears to believe in Neo's results more than even I have and that makes a lot of sense if she is the wolf. Especially with this lovely turn of events setting up a pretty little situation in which a chain lynch would be seen as the logical outcome to catch the wolf.

Alright. So Tiny claims vanilla townie. Now we either lynch him or we lynch someone else. I'm of the opinion that we

Unvote, Vote: Tiny

Now is the time we test Neo's ability and see just how far down the rabbit hole we are going. If Tiny is telling the truth, we know Neo's ability is off and, surprise, I'm right about being doubtful of Nik. If Tiny is lying, well it is game over and town wins. It is worth pursuing.

@Nik:

No, you're not the best datapoint because we don't know whether or not we can trust Tiny. All we have is his word to go on that he is vanilla town. Only way to test his word and Neo's result is to lynch him. Otherwise, by lynching you, we potentially prove that you're town (or the wolf as I like to believe but I'm entertaining the town notion for this argument), but that says nothing about Tiny since he could be lying. Do you want to bank the game on assuming Tiny is telling the truth despite Neo potentially knowing something happened that night and being drunk?

Don't get me wrong, I understand there is a chain lynch in the works here since I am gunning for you, but you've done nothing to seriously sway me in regards to Lilan.

Neo and Tiny, do you guys have anything to add aside from the surface stuff? What about your opinions on what Nik and I have been debating on? We can't have just us two going at it with our opinions to help guide town. It would help to have more input from the other four still playing so we get an idea of everyone's stances.


JD LOOK AT THIS:

I'm going to be inactive for about 48 hours (closer to 30, but I'm giving myself extra time since I'm unsure of how long I'll be away). I will keep an eye on the forums via my phone, but I am mostly going to conserve its energy while I am gone (at least until I get a chance to recharge it). If something super serious happens that needs my input, I will take action as best I can. Well, good luck and I'll see you guys either close to the deadline for today, or on the dawn of the next day.

aight

Vote: Tiny

i'm behind right now, haven't had the will to work through the walls of text in my sickness, i should catch up and post something more significant today

Honestly, I think that both Niklor and King are town, and are too focused on each other.
I think that Freddeh is town as well.

Which, leaves Tiny and Lilan. Clearly, I was more suspicious of Tiny, which is why I targeted him.

I don't want the doc to claim, however, if the Doc decided to outguess the wolf, and not target me, assuming that the wolf would not waste his kill on someone that was expected to be saved, and the Doc targeted Tiny, I could see why I would have gotten the results that I got.
However, I think that's unlikely.

Vote: Tiny

Vote Count:

Lilan: Niklor
Tiny: KoD, Lilan, Neo

With six alive, four is majority. Deadline in roughly 40.5 hours.

I'm at L-1. Don't let the day end early. USE THE TIME. Rubik handed us a major blow to the wolf. People wasted that day. Now you are going to waste this day. Yay, let's end all possible discussion early. Let's not question anyone on prior actions. This is why town loses. We out numbered the wolf significantly and now we are heading into lynch or lose.

My reads incoming, for use tomorrow.

My top target as of right now is KingofDominaria. He started the day by getting out in front of Neosilk and continued even though Neosilk had new information. Pushing hard on Niklor, and using the exact reason that Niklor think's he's town as a reason. Certain that Niklor is the wolf and Neosilk's results mean nothing.

NIKLOR:

KOD:


Without knowing who Neosilk targeted he also begins to thrash at his results. Trying to place doubt on Neosilk's results. I'm thinking he was scared he was the target and was going to be revealed.





Then his tone and demeanor change after Neosilk reveals that I was his target rather than KoD. He also tries to cast doubt on my response before I even make one. Again a preemptive strike, setting the tone and discussion. Just as he did at the beginning of the day.



Day 1 he was 100% certain that Neosilk was scum. Day 2 he was certain Neosilk was scum, but also immediately made it clear he was voting for Rubik. Day 2 he was being challenged by Zinger, who conveniently died last night. Also leaving the Niklor is scum because he is alive case he was pushing early day 3.

Obligatory post from out and about.

Unvote

You have me at a handicap posting from a phone.

Anyway, much of my talk today is based strictly on what will likely occur. I did not have to sit by and wait for Neo to give his result. I started a discussion. What you call preemptive strikes are, in fact, accurate observations as to what is occurring. You contesting Nero's result is proof of all I've been posting about.

I did not blindly assume anything based on what was put in front of me like Nik did. I did not assume he was town just because he assumes so and Neo's one result gives only one possible outcome.

I may have jumped around with my accusations up to this point but that does not matter. I fully back what I go after with reasons be they good or bad. That's what everyone should do.

Zinger was going to get my attention today. His posting was different from normal. Also he was using his phone as an excuse for his lack of posting. With his no lie policy his phone probably did break but may not be the reason he was staying quiet (lie of omissions are allowed with his NLP). Since Zinger is dead Lilan moves to the number two suspect spot.

I've been back and forth with Lilan. She is very quick to change her mind and go along with someone else's plan. Not really providing one herself. Though I have no idea if this is normal for her. Rubik stated that when she plays scum she lurks. She did push a lynch all lurkers day 1. Which might have been in response to the last game and knowing there may have been a focus on lurkers this game.

Freddeh, hasn't been on my radar that much. He went on vacation, which he announced before the game. He didn't log in at all during his time away. So unless he sent his night action before his vacation there is no way he could be the wolf.

Neosilk. Neosilk I've played with in almost all my games here, except the one he hosted. I was even scum with him in the last game I played. I know the way he plays and his tells. I suspected he was guardsman going into N1. If I was the wolf I would have sired him. I've been scum with him in the past, knowing we could work together, and having the guardsman as a wolf would have been quite advantageous.

Niklor is town in my book. He was the only one to challenge my let rubik turn discussion. Zinger made a drive by comment about thinking it was scummy but nothing else. Lilan agreed with using the huntsman to kill. KoD slightly defended it by reminding Niklor that it was a joke. In that and other exchanges Niklor's responses were never anti-town. If he does end up being the wolf then well played.