@King - so, with the Niklor vote, are you assuming that my information was incorrect? Based on the message I got last night, I think it's very likely that Niklor did not leave his house on N1.

That's the only reason I can see here - if you thought I was lying, I would have expected you to vote for me.

You're confirmed town as far as I am concerned. There is a very small chance you are the wolf, but I am seriously doubtful the wolf would risk claiming a power role. And since you are town I doubt you are intentionally lying.

There is some wiggle room when it comes to your results. Because of this, I am focused on two things (three counting your result on Niklor). I'm going to wait for the responses I asked for first before continuing though.

As for your revelation today, sounds like we'll have a lot to talk about when you reveal who you targeted.

are we supposed to guess why you think niklor is scum

niklor was an active voice day 1 but most of his posts fell under the umberella of meta posting. He defended himself i think but never attacked anyone else. On day 2 he did voice suspicion on both me and you but only referenced that suspicion a few times afterwards, and mainly made meta posts again (although day 2 was almost entirely meta posts because of the situation). He was against vigging rubik. He put the idea into circulation forward that neo target him twice. I find both of these actions anti-town, but only marginally, and I can't read what the difference on those stances would be for wolf niklor and town niklor.

He's been very active but very uninvolved with scumhunting which is probably a decent tell but some people withhold reads on day 1, and day 2 was strange in this game.

I'm trusting Neo's result though and would rather look for a target among people on the uncleared list.

No you're not supposed to guess. I only want your perspectives.

oh well everything i said was my perspective anyway

Based on the new Neosilk info, I appear to be pretty solidly confirmed town as either vanilla or hunter. I'm actually surprised the wolf didn't do me in last night, but maybe he was gambling on Neo's results to continue to be incredibly doubtful. Based on today's results, look like yesterday's is spot on. Given that, I will say that Neo's watch on me was accurate. Didn't target anyone N1, either because vanilla or hunter. Feel free to cry for my blood for daring to reveal that I am not the doctor, but I feel given the circumstances revealing that Neo's role gave an accurate result when it appeared he didn't drink too much is more important.

And KoD starts the hunt against me for reasons. Doubtless he will explain after he gets people to look back and generate their own conclusions, but I honestly find myself less suspicious of him. Since there is only one wolf, the risk of leaving a loosely confirmed townie alive over the night and recklessly hunting him the first day seems as bold as I can imagine most players going. With a scumteam of at least 2, I could believe it, but by himself? No, KoD just moved himself firmly towards town in my mind.

And Lilan is still Lilan.

Vote: Lilan

I will be going back to confirm what I believe and try to piece everything together to look for inconsistencies, but a lot of Lilan D1 feels more chiming in, but never trying to jump into the discussion. And that random D2 remark still rings odd to me. Which honestly makes her the most suspicious to me at present.



I didn't have a lot of strong feelings D1 and the LaL, despite my best intentions, probably gave me a more laid back approach of, "Well, I'm going to vote for a lurker anyway." And then D2 happened. As pleased as I am about not getting a wolf, it would have been better held in reserve as a midday bomb of info in my mind. As it was, it put a damper on any activity again because what are we going to do except lynch Rubik? We might have been able to observe any strange interactions with Rubik through that first half of the day if he had held off.

I was against vigging Rubik over lynching Rubik. If Rubik couldn't be lynched, vigging would be the correct course to take. But choosing to not lynch him and waste our hunter's one-off instead seemed wasteful. After Rubik pointed out his opinion, I pointed out the only real way to test Neosilk's ability was to use it on the same person two nights in a row. I wasn't doing this considering I was the one who the ability had been used on, but more as a pure meta discussion. As I pointed out later, I didn't mean to suggest he target me twice. I am confused why either of these is anti-town? If we believe the ability to be inaccurate to the degree Rubik spoke of, relying on it is useless unless some tests are performed. Even then, relying on it is probably useless, but we were working with the assumption Neo couldn't tell if he was drunk or not. Apparently, he can to some degree, and that seems to make a lot of difference. As for not wanting to vig Rubik instead of lynching him, how is that remotely anti-town? Even under the assumption that each wolf wouldn't get his own night kill, it makes sense Rubik would have been the one to carry out the wolf's NK from then on. By letting him get vigged, we lose the opportunity for our guardsman to potentially catch the other wolf that night. Plus, we can't even confirm we have a huntsman as the dead don't seem to give up their roles upon hitting the grave.

Again, how is it antitown to oppose vigging the wolf over lynching the wolf? Wolf Niklor might, just might, consider how people react to his word's more carefully than Town Niklor. It's hard to say. A lot of the time, I would say I play essentially the same way, only have the benefit of scumbuddies so I don't get easily strung up.

Fred will get here when he does. Neo will be introducing something worth discussing for a while later on in the day so I'll so however much time I have to swing against Niklor right now.

First, the overall reason I'm voting Niklor is due to him not having been the night kill for last night. WIFOM aside, this game, if viewed in the light that Neo is right about Niklor, has two "confirmed" town along with an additional townie having been revealed (Zinger). That lowers the numbers for the wolf to hide severely. Rather, why wouldn't the wolf off one of the two "confirmed" town? If there is a healer, we know it will be on Neo. But what about Nik? The wolf has no need to rely upon the unpredictable nature of the tracker's role since he knows the alignments of everyone. Yet why let someone who will be viewed as town live? What if it is because that person is actually the wolf who was wrongfully cleared?

This is one reason why I view Nik to be the wolf.

The other reason is Nik has flipped twice now with his perspectives as far as I am concerned. Over the course of D1 he virtually allied himself with me (defended me either directly or indirectly) when I was arguing with others. D2, things changed when out of nowhere Nik came out with a post that focused mostly on me with many reasons and barely any on Lilan. But, and true to style as I would imagine a safe scum to be, he only stated he was suspicious of me. He felt around to see who else would pick up that suspicion with him since others (Fred and Zinger mostly) had somewhat negative views towards me. But now on D3 things have changed. Rather than pursuing me, he's thinking I am purely town because I am focused on him and has switched to Lilan with very little in the way of actually having much against her other than what I will call "feelings".

This is why I believe Niklor is very likely the wolf. Until Neo comes forth with his topic for discussion, my focus will be on Niklor.

Just so everyone knows I'll plan on posting my target and such maybe Monday or Tuesday - at the least, I want for everyone left in the game to have posted today before I say.

keep in mind that the deadlines are short

you don't need to defend yourself niklor i'm not really attacking you

Ok, thread read. Thoughts

Likely Town:
Neo

Leaning Town:
KoD
Freddeh

Mostly Neutral:
Tiny

Leaning Scummy:
Lilan

This is for a variety of reasons. First, through D1, Lilan seemed to be constantly ready to comment and give opinions in a method which seems to tend to avoid drawing attention to her. She also echoed a lot. On D2, constantly felt like changing stances based on information at the forefront of the discussion, again seeming ready to comment and give opinions, while largely seeking to avoid that spotlight being drawn to her. In addition to some minor just vibes from some comments, I feel she is trying to actively be a driving force within the town while avoiding our attention. Some seem to be chalking this up to playstyle, but it is by far the most suspicious thing I see. Very certain of my vote at present.

Tiny's whole "We should consider not lynching Rubik" bit left a strange opinion on him for me. Overall, I feel some of his posts are saying "Look how worried about the town I am.", but at the same time he seemed intent on trying to explore this whole not lynching Rubik thing as far as he could go without being labelled as scum.

Freddeh and KoD just feel really town to me at this point and I trust that more than any case I could probably find around them.

Neo is obviously labelled as town for obvious reasons. A part of me does hope he turns out to be a wolf in guard's clothing, though, just merely because watching such a brazen, bold play unfold like that would be amazing.

Sure, why not. I mean, at least it is something to discuss, though I think discussing your thoughts regarding Lilan are more relevant.



I was very surprised as well. Not that Lilan somehow predicted the wolf wouldn't kill me, but rather look among "The unconfirmed." How suspect. The obvious answer is the wolf doesn't off me in the hopes of getting me lynched. However, that probably worked out predicting that Neo's results wouldn't suddenly come to light that it does appear that he does know if he drank a lot, which makes his N1 result on me look all the more accurate. I think setting the WIFOM aside is rather silly here. Let's ignore a crucial decision the wolf would have to make and say that since he clearly didn't act as expected barring WIFOM, Nik must be scum. There is of course a chance I am the wolf and Neo's result fell favorably upon me.

More strangely, I find your insistence we use Neo's result to our advantage yesterday being thrown out the window just because they might be wrong to be sort of meh.



You were taking a very logical stance throughout D1, in my mind, but some things you said gave me weird vibes when Rubik turned out to be being sired. It was not out of nowhere, it was based on events that were happening. Things change when big reveals happen. I do not discount my feelings when playing mafia, especially not if I see patterns that support them. As it stands going into D3, I feel its too bold a move for you to make as wolf to both leave me alive and viciously go for me the instant day starts, especially given how likely it appears that most of the town will end up trusting Neo's results. I apologize for allowing the progression of the game state to change my opinion on you.

@Nik:

Without Zinger around, Fred is probably the most inactive person this game which begs the question at what point did you decide to casually dismiss Fred? I may have missed something very small in all of your posts, but for the life of me I cannot recall any instance where you gave an indication where Fred was town prior to now. This reminds me... Back then, I made a comment how Fred came off as town to me due to my interaction with him this game. And you called it a casual dismissal when you were painting suspicion on me. You call Fred town without any actual reason that I could see. Probably to get him to side with you in a good way I would imagine.

Enough about Fred. How about Lilan since you are so keen on her. I ask again, exactly what is your point on her? She avoids the spotlight? She's trying to be a main force for the town without trying to get the spotlight on her? She's hardly a main voice. She has opinions like everyone else, but I don't see her slugging it out with someone over them. If there is anyone that is guilty of "avoiding the spotlight" that is the attention of the town, then it'd have to be the people who comment nowhere near as much as everyone else (ie. Fred mostly). This should come as no big surprise to you that I don't see Lilan as being scummy. As far as I'm concerned, nothing she's done has really drawn my attention to warrant her as being scummy in my eyes. On the off chance she is the wolf, then kudos to her for looking like a sheep.

Now, about you not being dead. First and foremost, I subscribe to the idea that any scum will play safe. The idea that a scum would leave "confirmed" town alive thereby lessening the number of potential people to look at for being the wolf directly contradicts that idea. We have six people alive right now. Neo is the, more or less, confirmed town guard/tracker/watcher (whatever you call the role), and Neo kept an eye on you N1. If we go with the idea that Neo's role can "confirm" vanilla townies (broadly speaking for this point), then that leaves only 4 people that the wolf can be. And don't forget, you even made this comment during D2:

Niklor


So in all honesty why are you not dead? Because (WIFOM) the wolf decided it was better off to kill Zinger -- a player who isn't as active as others and could be viewed suspiciously? I doubt that. What was it you said?

Nik


Oh right. So the wolf would be quite happy with only having 4 total people to hide among (itself included). I suppose the wolf would be just as happy with taking a chance at claiming a power role on the terrible chance he might not get counter claimed, right? You see, in this scenario the wolf would already be narrowed down to 4 people rather than 5 thanks to the wolf killing off an unknown for us (Zinger). That contradicts what I believe a person playing safe scum would do. It would make more sense to kill off whoever Neo had investigated so that is one less person for him to worry about in the coming days (aka you). But he left you alive which means one of two things: You're either the wolf, or the wolf wants to be Dare Devil and take a 25% chance of not being found among the four unconfirmed players. Which do you think is likely?

You being the wolf is far more simple and likely than Dare Devil Wolf.

Now, about Neo's result on you: That result along doesn't give us the ***full picture*** of his role. His second result, together with his first, won't give us the ***full picture*** of his role. More "data" or "information" is needed to get a ***full picture*** of his role. To that end, when Neo starts up a new discussion over his second result, we'll be able to get an idea of his role. For example:

Imagine he comes back and says that Lilan was the one he targeted. Neo said he drank heavily that night and that Lilan left her house. Lilan then claims she never left his house. We are left with two actions to take as a town -- kill Lilan or kill someone else. The decision we make will have to be based on something. What should it be based on? The fact that he is sure someone left their house? The fact that he knows, and told us, he drank heavily that night? It gets better. What if we do kill Lilan, but it turns out she was town and Neo was wrong with his result? Does that mean Nik is still cleared? Obviously it wouldn't.

Point is, we're getting close to the point where the wolf can be found. That point is much closer with 4 people being unconfirmed (if we believe that the Wolf chose not to kill off a townie investigated and "cleared' by Neo). I've got you pegged as being the wolf simply because it is the most logical based on what I am seeing:

The fact that you, if you truly are a townie, were not killed by the wolf.

The fact that the wolf would kill off an unconfirmed for us making it easier for us to deduce who the wolf might be.

The fact that you got defensive over a simple perspective of you (Lilan's despite how non-aggressive it was and how she didn't even seem that suspicious of you).

And the fact that have, numerous times, flipped your perspectives on me (probably trying to play to the way people react to you). I mean look at me D1. I switched between you and two others before I settled on Neo for the day. D2 I didn't switch as much but I didn't focus on you, and you decide I'm suspicious for stuff that happened on D1. And now on D3 with me focused on you yet again, you think I'm town. This screams of buddy-ing up manipulation.


The real discussion will start when Neo reveals who he targeted. We either have the healer, the wolf, or a townie pending on how his role works. I'm looking forward to it Niklor.

After D1, felt he gave off town vibes. D2 did nothing to really dismiss that fact. Plus, I have a feeling, with only 1 scum, scum will not be lurking too hard and Freddeh doesn't seem as interested in this game as I think he would be as scum. Naturally, that is from my perspective, but it's no different than being suspect of lurkers because you think scum would try to avoid it. Also, you did note from your interactions that Fred felt town, which meant just about as much as what I am saying. It is a feeling, but with one scum I am more confident in pushing people to the side of feels town rather than waiting until something lines up evidence wise. Obviously, I have no problem with pulling them back in or out if feelings change, as you should know.



Isn't that the idea as the wolf, though. To be seen as the sheep? But if feels close to trying to be seen as sheep, the way she is playing. That is what strikes me strange. Plus, a few odd comments here and there that just give off a bad vibe.



I'm sorry KoD, but I really couldn't care less what you believe. If scum played in a predictably safe manner every game, catching them would probably be a very simple exercise.

As for Neo, it was pretty established yesterday that his role seemed to be rather useless because he couldn't tell if he was drunk or not. Now, we know that he appears to be able to tell to some degree. That lends a lot to me and makes me practically confirmed, while yesterday there was the chance it was wrong. I imagine a clever wolf could see how things looked yesterday and leave me alive in the hopes that someone would jump on the chance of attacking the somewhat confirmed town because the wolf chose not to kill him.

Sorry that our beliefs about this differ. Also, you keep referring to your theory that scum will do the safe thing, but I apparently am not playing like your safe scum would. I like how you only use it when it suits your position.

No Nik, I do not know. After all, you were the one who used my "casual dismissal" of Fred and Rubik (based on interactions with them) to label me as suspicious. The only saving grace between you and I is that I actually gave a reason rather than being very broad and vague prior to being called on it like you were.

Now Mr. Pot, I'd like you to meet Mr. Kettle. Your small comment about "isn't that how the wolf is supposed to play" is in the same camp as my idea on the safe scum. Essentially how you view Lilan is exactly how I view you. Only difference is that I have more meat on my bone than you do on yours. In case you didn't get that, I was saying that I have more on you being suspicious than you do on Lilan since you are, surprise surprise, very broad and vague when it comes to actually pinpointing ***why*** a person is scummy.

"Oh Lilan is avoiding the spotlight. She must be the wolf." Totally. Just like how Fred must be the wolf for not being in the spotlight either. Or Tiny for that matter. Seriously, you're just flailing around now. Careful or you'll knock something over.

Niklor


Problem: You assume my idea on the safe scum applies to how you, in the open town forum, are playing.

Solution: My idea on the safe scum does not depend on that. My idea is strictly independent of all things except the safe play. For example consider the discussion about having a power role claim. We don't know if, as a test, the healer is in this game. Barring doing a tenative "I'm not the healer" claim line where the wolf could be the last one to claim as such, the wolf won't take the initiative to claim (like how Neo claimed the guard) because it is too risky for reasons that were already covered. Apply such a safe mindset to the situation of a revealed town power role (which must be the case unless we have one ballsy wolf and extremely bad luck for not having a guard). Seven total people (prior to Zinger dying). Of the seven, 1 is confirmed town guard and another was targeted by said guard (claimed to have done nothing when watched). That leaves 5 people we know nothing about. So rather than target the guard (possibly protected by the healer) or the person the guard claims to have done nothing (you, Niklor) the wolf decides to kill off one of the 5 people we have nothing on leaving just 4 people.

Now to be extremely technical, both you and I are playing with WIFOM. I assume the wolf would kill one of two "confirmed" townies. You assume the wolf left you alive to play with the minds of people. What is the one big difference between us? I'm not assuming you're confirmed town. You are. Tell me, at what point did you somehow get more info about Neo's role? Because, as I already mentioned in my previous post with the Lilan scenario, we don't know the full scope of Neo's role. For all we know he might alternate drinking: He doesn't drink and sees just fine. He drinks and thinks he sees someone leave. Or maybe he doesn't drink and sucks at keeping watch, but when he drinks he is able to watch like a hawk? Or perhaps the drinking has nothing to do with how well he watches and his role is set in such a way where he will not find someone the first night, and on the second night he will always find someone and it alternates like that?

Fact: You were the first person to talk about yourself as being confirmed town. Something you maintain even right now. I remember a list Lilan made that had you as being confirmed town along with Neo and everyone else being unconfirmed. Tell me, just what does that mean for us if you were wrongly cleared? It means we lose.

Until we can further understand how Neo's role works, you are about as confirmed town as a baby face being investigated by a paranoid cop.

Seriously, I would think I was scum if I was looking at myself.

If anyone is available to replace me that can be a bit more active that would surely be better than my current activity level.

No, you can't get off that easily Fred.

How do you view Niklor? That is my question to you. Whatever is on the top of your head based on what you have read (if anything). Gut reaction. Something.

Forgive me if at any point I become rude because I feel like I'm being talked down to by a pompous windbag who is either trying to bait me into labeling him as such or is just getting into the heat of the argument.



Relying on feelings is not the same thing as being vague. Please stop trying to paint my reasons as one thing when they are another. Now, if you want to attack me relying on my feelings instead of evidence, that's fine I suppose, but that's not the same as being vague.



It certainly is. Never said I didn't hold my own beliefs. I just try to avoid bashing others over the head with them, usually because in the past people got sore with my beliefs. The thing is do you have more meat? It might be simple for me to take a post Lilan said and twist it into a justification of why she should be lynched. Why is going with a feeling better just because you found a way to justify it. In the end, it's just a feeling. I can point to certain posts that gave me weird vibes if you like, but I'm not going to try to force evidence if I don't believe it is there.

Unless I am scum, of course. Common sense to do so then.



That is actually not what I said, but I thank you for the misrepresentation.



Yes... I mean, is this in question. You've been applying it to me. It's not assumption. You've actually done this.



I don't have more info regarding his role. I am merely surmising what we do have. He was not told he drank too much on N1. He was told he did on N2. The role could work entirely differently than we expect, but it seems to me that if he knows he drank too much last night, he probably didn't on the first night. Ergo, the result is more likely to be valid on that night.

You are right that there are any number of possibilities, but to ignore the simplest explanation in the belief this role is really complex seems rather like intentionally ignoring it. Obviously, giving the simplest explanation for why I wasn't killed last night is I'm scum, both of these things can't possibly be true. Still, I find it strange you are ignoring this.



I made a joke about it initially, but, yes, I was the first to mention it. Obviously if we put faith in Neo and we're wrong to put that faith there, either because Neo turns out to be a brilliant wolf or his result on me or another leads us down the wrong path, it can mean game over almost instantly. That is always the risk of confirming someone as town.

What does it mean if Neo is the wolf and Pariah was the guard. It means we lose. I don't see why this needs to be said.



No, I personally think I am pretty well confirmed as not having acted N1. It is not wrong to harbor doubts, but you are purposely ignoring what we did learn about Neo's role. That he knows when he drinks too much. You'd rather believe the role is more complicated than that so you can pursue this case. Your choice, but I think you are wrong.



Actually, I'm pretty sure he can. I mean, you can try to lynch Fred or whoever replaces him for it, but I am pretty sure he doesn't have to answer.

I'm also lost on why you want to know a gut reaction. A read would make sense, but just wanting to know someone's gut reaction doesn't really do anything for your case.

Friends moved router, spotty internet in my room. Lost a few posts already.


@KoD: Why push so hard before Neosilk even posted let alone reveal his target?

@Tiny: Because I'm scum hunting? Had Neo not even come up with a result such as this to cause a good discussion I would have still focused on Niklor for reason already stated. Besides, depending on how the discussion goes down, once Neo reveals who he targeted, it may lead to Nik getting lynched or the person Neo targeted getting lynched.

Have you followed what I've been saying about Niklor in regards to all this? Because if you have, then you should be able to easily understand why I'm going so hard at Niklor. The very fact he is alive instead of dead is reason enough for me to question his alignment -- especially since Neo's ability isn't as concrete as Nik seems to think it is.

@Nik:

The thing with Fred is because of his comment to me near the end of D2 when he said, "you know I will," in regards to him coming and posting. He posted, just nothing useful. That's why I said what I did to him because he should put effort into at least something for me. Other than that, not relevant.

And yet again, you're not confirmed except in your own mind.

All Neo has to go off of is:

1. N1 - He was told that he had been drinking. He was told that you didn't leave your house.
2. N2 - He was told he had been drinking heavily. He was told that he definitely saw his target leave their house.

The mod flat out told Neo that not everything about his role would be revealed to him. So the full extent of his role is not known to any of us. Because of this, we don't know (this is a fact and can't be disputed) exactly ***how*** Neo's role works. Does him drinking mean he is good at his job or bad? Does him not drinking make him good or bad at his job?

For all we know, the fact that he drank means he gets a negative for his result and a positive for when he doesn't drink -- Meaning that since he didn't drink the first N1, he must have got a positive (the person actually left their house), and on N2 when he did drink he got a negative (the person didn't actually leave their house -- he just imagined it). That's just one scenario for how his role might work. Perhaps the drinking is not relevant in any sense and his role just alternates with his results each day.

Point is, as I maintained in a previous post, you're as confirmed town as a baby face scum that was investigated by a paranoid cop. You maintaining otherwise simply means you are town and are just affirming Neo's one result (which begs the question why are you alive instead of Zinger? Because the wolf wanted to kill off a relative unknown compared to you and allow you to spread your whole I'm town mentality everyone?). Or it means you are the wolf trying to wear the "confirmation" from Neo as townie pants so you can ride it to the end (at least this explains why the wolf would let a "confirmed" townie live. Because the wolf is that "townie".).

And your what-if scenario with Pariah being the guard and Neo being the wolf -- you were part of the discussions for that. The general opinion of everyone is that it is too risky for the wolf to do that. Furthermore, more so than everyone's opinion on it is the actual ***fact*** that it literally is too risky for the wolf to claim the guard in that scenario. Does the wolf know that Pariah is the guard? No. Do we know? No. Pariah never said what he was. He could have been the guard. Or the hunter. Or the healer. Or Pariah could have simply been vanilla flavored townie. Now tell me, what is the chance that the wolf would grow such a big pair and claim that knowing full well he would be banking his chance at winning the game on such slim odds that Pariah was the guard? I'll tell you. No chance in hell. Snowball's chance of surviving on the surface of the sun. Zilch. Nada. Now what was the point of this what-if scenario that you should be familiar with? Faith in Neo? Neo asked me at the start of today if I disbelieved his result. Or something like that (maybe he asked if I thought he was lying?). I don't think he's lying one bit. I fully believe he is town aligned and that he is the town guard power role. What I also know for a fact is that no one here knows the *****full scope***** of Neo's role. Not even himself. Not even you. As I've iterated many a time, without more data we don't know fully how his role works. All you are doing is making the very dangerous assumption that you are confirmed town simply because ***YOU*** "confirm" his result on you was accurate AND that his next result must be accurate as well since it is different from his result on you. All the different scenarios aside from how his role could work, you are NEGLECTING one very important thing -- the heavy drinking he did. No one, especially you, knows how that drinking effects his result in any way, shape, or form. You'll have to excuse me for bringing you down to reality, but you are NOT confirmed town in anyway.

At this point I need to backtrack to address some aspect of the above paragraph in regards to a comment of yours:



I don't know if you get this, but I will try to be forward in explaining it so you understand. We all have the same info in front of us in regards to Neo's role. Yes, he was told he drank too much on N2 and nothing was said about drinking on N1. And yes, we were told he didn't see you leave your home on N1 and that he is definitely sure that someone left their home on N2. What do we draw from these conclusions? Well, IF we take you at your word, then sure his N1 result is accurate. Perhaps the alcohol has no effect on him and he really did see someone leave their home on N2. But here is the problem: We have to trust your word in regards to his N1 result. This is why your staunch belief that you are confirmed town is flawed in a serious way and why you don't seem to understand the issue at hand here when you butt heads with me.

It all simply boils down to the fact that there is not enough data on Neo's role to make accurate assumptions. Simple as that.

Now, about the safe scum idea of mine. I apply it by looking for connections not based on what a person openly says (and taking their word on what they say). What this means is I actually don't consider what you are saying here because, if you are the scum, you will only lie. Instead I look for what fits. Like an intricate puzzle. Everyone was on board with the idea that the wolf wouldn't claim a power role because it was too risky. This is safe scum ideology to me. It fits. This is why I can fully believe Neo is town. But what else then when considering safe scum? Well, safe scum idea aside, as far as this game has gone you bothered me with your switch to me D2 about being suspicious. Especially since you put more effort into describing me as suspicious rather than Lilan (again, you were very broad and vague which is a factor for me focusing you). But this along doesn't fit. I mean sure, I find it odd that you'd play WIFOM and use what I said about Rubik and Fred during D1 as a reason to view me as suspicious D2 due to Rubik having been sired. After all, you could be lying about who you would sire. But anyway my "casual dismissal", as you put it, was convenient for you to be suspicious of me. Perhaps you sired him and used that line of logic to justify it. WIFOM.

But that is my own feeling in regards to you and how you came across me on D2 while keeping D1 (and how not aggressive you were to me). What threw me into going after you was not a feeling, but, and this is back to the safe scum idea, the fact that you were not killed during the night and Zinger was. Wolf could have tried to kill Neo since there MIGHT be a healer, but the wolf didn't risk wasting his night kill on the chance that there is a healer in this game. Wolf is playing safe, not risky. Why wouldn't the Wolf kill the person that is trying to be confirmed as town though? I mean let's consider a scenario where you are indeed town and the wolf is someone else. Ok, you're town and were watched by Neo. You confirmed Neo's result. Wolf has a choice: Let you live knowing full well you are town and that the town is going to treat you as such (After all, you did celebrate being confirmed); Or, kill you to reduce the number of "confirmed" people in the game. Obviously killing you would leave four others for the wolf to hide in while the sixth person (Neo) would be the only confirmed. But rather than do that, the Wolf is going to lower his chance of survival by lowering the pool of suspects to look at (this helps the town) by killing off one of the unconfirmed people rather than you -- Zinger. Effectively the Wolf has lowered his life span.

Now I've mentioned before that I am playing with WIFOM since I am assuming the Wolf will make a particular move (as you have assumed) in regards to who to kill. But my idea is consistent with the Wolf playing safe. Yours is not. It makes far more sense for the wolf to kill one of the confirmed townies (you in this case). You were not killed, Zinger was. This means only one thing (two technically): The wolf must be the "townie" that wasn't killed. The other, technical, one is that the wolf is being risky, but I have no reason to suspect the wolf will play risky. Why should I? The Wolf has been playing safe up to now. No reason to assume otherwise.

Now, to the meat of the matter. I have more meat with my bone than you do. My reasons to view you as the wolf are fully justified since it is mostly based on fact rather than feeling. The fact that you did not die last night, the fact that you are not confirmed town, and the feeling (spawned from your numerous perspective flips) you generated by how you have acted. Speaking of those feelings, odd thing with what you just said.



In that post you speak theoretically rather than factually. Could you twist posts from someone? Sure. Have you? No. Course I'm not twisting posts to provide foundation for my case. But it is odd that you would go from viewing me as the suspicious one to viewing Lilan as the suspicious one and then turn around and say "I'm not going to try to force evidence if I don't believe it is there." Let's be frank, you and I, Nik. After I voted you today, you changed your tune so quick to Lilan without any sort of meat at all. Just broad and vague words. And to top it off, while theoretically speaking of Lilan, you don't even provide any kind of posts to twist or anything to support your suspicion of her because you, and I quote, "not going to try to force evidence if I don't believe it is there." Yous say you are suspicious of her because [blank], yet you say won't force evidence because you don't believe it is there. You're contradicting yourself. Lilan was your target for suspicion, but not even you believe there is proof for that suspicion. Just "weird vibes." At least I have provided evidence, that I didn't even have to twist, for my suspicion of you.

Oh well. In the end, you're just the wolf to me.