Total wolves = 2
Total players = 4

(Total wolves)/(Total players) = 2/4 = 50% of players are wolves

The 4 doesn't represent total town.

Oh woah we have 9 town nevermind give me a second here.

Assuming complete failure by town:

D1:
1/9

N1:
2/8 (2/7 chance of hitting scum from gunner's eye)

D2:
2/7

N2:
2/6 (2/5 chance of hitting scum from gunner's eye)

D3:
2/5 (LyLo)

N4
2/4 (2/3 chance of hitting scum from gunner's eye)

D4:
2/3 (66% wolves)

---

Assuming a N1 misfire:

D2:
2/6 (LyLo)

N2:
2/5

D3:

2/4 (50% wolves)

N4 should be N3 in the above post.

The important part is that day 3 is LyLo and that if the hunter shoots day 2 is LyLo instead. (misfiring on N2 ends the game immediately)

I kept getting distracted and holding backspace while trying to respond and I have no idea. Cursed youtube.

At best, assuming the hunter is targeted to be sired and the wolf does choose the logical choice of trying to sire, he has a 2/7 chance of hitting a wolf. So, unless some strong indication comes up between a couple of players that one of them is probably lying and the death of either would prove it, best to probably hold off until N2. And reasonably we should probably just lynch one of the two if it appears that we've got scum, which might end the game right then and there.

Oh sorry

"assuming the hunter isn't targeted to be sired"

I said that based on my original math incorrectly based on the idea of there being 8 players in the game instead of 9.

In reality, N3 is when the hunter should shoot regardless of anything else. If the doctor saves someone, it also frees us to shoot someone earlier because our LyLo will be the same either way.

if the healer saves somebody it will actually push lylo to day 4. the hunter misfiring will then push it back to day 3.

honestly i would recommend the hunter just not fire at all this game unless they are allowed to shoot after a mislynch in lylo

That's wrong. One protection would keep LyLo on day 3 either way. The only difference is that on d4 it would be 2 wolves 2 town, instead of 2 wolves 1 town. Both are lost game-states.

The best hypothetical time to fire a gun would be on a night with 3 town, 2 scum. You have a 50-50 shot of hitting scum and the game would otherwise be lost that night anyways unless your doc gets lucky.

Day 1: 1 wolf 8 town
Day 2: 2 wolves 6 town
Day 3: 2 wolves 4 town (Lylo)
Day 4: 2 wolves 2 town (game lost)

Is this not correct?

I guess so. It looks like I miscalculated again.

That means that gunshot wouldn't impact lylo, though, because D2 would just be 2W/5T and D3 would be 2W/3T. It's LyLo day 3 either way, right?

Yeah you're right, gunshot doesn't push back LyLo.

This shouldn't have been as hard as it was to figure out

I agree!

Of course, if there's a no lynch on D2, that changes things a bit. Not enough for another day without a lynch or a shot

the vig can afford one shot, I'd recommend taking it on N2.

Ah so its going to be one of these games, eh Rag?