That's a great argument. Thanks.
However, that same argument would work as a reason to play
Angelic Edict over
Ground Assault. Because fundamentally, the most dangerous creatures in dotp are Baneslayer, etc... and therefore you shouldn't play GA until you see one of them drop.
Nope. GA is clearly the better card. It costs 2 mana, and can be played on T2 when needed. OR it can be held until much later. All the way to the point that AE, because it exiles, becomes the strictly better card.
This is a terrible analogy to begin with.
First off removal spells function differently than the traditional threats/engine cards.
Holding onto a removal spell is much different than holding onto a threat.
Removal spells are reactive, threats and engine cards a proactive.
Holding onto removal often isn't going to set you back.
Which is kind of the point here.
GA is good on T2 when you need to kill something.
GA is also good on T7 when you need to kill something.
Which is exactly WHY Triumph is bad.
Triumph is bad on T3, because at that point you would much rather be playing out actual threats to put your opponent on a clock. 99% of the time you are going to be better served playing a 3cmc creature on T3 than you will be playing Triumph. If given the option between playing Thoctar and Triumph on T3 you will almost ALWAYS be better off playing the Thoctar.
Triumph is also bad when played off curve. If in the majority of scenarios you are playing Triumph on T6+ then the card isn't integral as a means of REACHING that 6+ mana, and thus the deck isn't really going to suffer any from replacing the card with something that actually costs that much, which is likely to provide a much larger amount of value.
You don't want to be playing Triumph as a 3 drop if you can help it, and the longer and longer you wait to play it, the more mana both you and your opponent have accumulated, meaning when you DO play it, it likely isn't going to hold nearly the value of these other drops.
If Triumph sits in your hand waiting to be cast until you have 6 mana on the table in the majority of games, then by the time you cast it there is a good chance that your opponent is going to be at the point where they are able to cast threats that cost 6 mana.
If you play Triumph early, you aren't playing early creatures to eek out that tempo advantage.
If you play Triumph late, you are casting it instead of something that actually costs that CMC, which is likely what your opponent is going to be doing.
The question becomes, once both you and your opponent have 7 mana on the table, would you rather be casting Triumph, or something like Pelakka Wurm. Chances are high that your opponent is going to be casting Pelakka Wurms and the like, which makes casting your own even more valuable, because it actually matches up against other 6+ drops in the format, which Triumph does not.
That is the crux of the argument I am making here.
If you are casting Triumph on curve, you are actively gimping yourself in the tempo department, which is what these types of decks thrive on.
If you are casting Triumph off of curve, you would be better off running/casting a threat for the appropriate CMC instead, because it actually matches up against what the opponent is likely to be playing.
Even if you are Casting Triumph on T6 and using the other 3 mana to cast another threat (like the previously mentioned scenario of casting Thoctar+Triumph) you will gain overall more value off of dropping a 6cmc creature instead, and your opponent is likely to be doing just that. While you are playing Triumph+Thoctar, they are playing Inferno Titan or something similarly costed, which not only has the superior body to Thoctar, but also shuts off your Triumph in the process BECAUSE it has that superior body.
If in 90% of games you are casting a card off curve, then you HAVE to be able to compare the card to other cards of the cost at which you are playing the card, because those are cards that A.) You could potentially be playing yourself instead of said off curve card, or B.) Are what your opponent is likely to be playing at that point in the curve.
If the majority of the time you aren't playing a 3cmc card until you have 6 mana on the table, then it HAS to be compared to other cards at the same point in the curve. If Triumph is clogging up your hand and doing nothing for you until you have 6 mana on the table, then the deck isn't going to suffer any more if that card were to be replaced with a 6 drop instead. A card like Inferno Titan isn't going to clog up your hand any more or less than Triumph would when drawn early (since on average we are waiting till T6+ to cast Triumph anyways to allow us to devote creatures to the board to gain that early tempo advantage).
They also must be compared because you have to assume that that is what you are likely to be facing from an opponent. The longer and longer we wait to cast a card like Triumph, the less and less value the card itself holds because we have more mana and are thus able to play more expensive cards, and the same is true of your opponent.
This is the whole reason why we compare cards of similar mana costs to each other.
Inferno Titan and
Grave Titan can be compared relatively easily, because they both cost 6cmc and thus both represent the potential value of what both you and your opponent can get for 6 mana.
If you are potentially sandbagging cards to play out off curve though, then you have to understand that these cards HAVE to still be compared to what is available for that particular CMC. If you only ever cast Triumph on T6+ then even though the card only costs 3cmc, it is still effectively (or rather, virtually) a 6 drop. It may only cost 3cmc, but it is still often sitting in your hand as a dead card until you hit those high mana totals and can either play it AND something else, or just don't have anything else to play but it.
At which point running a 6cmc spell in that slot isn't going to hurt you, since if you draw it early, it's going to do exactly what Triumph did, sit in your hand doing nothing until you hit 6cmc, so it isn't hurting you to run it instead any more than running Triumph does. The difference is that that 6cmc spell compares better to the other plays being made on those turns by your opponents so has more upside in the late game, without having any more of a downside when drawn early than what you were running in the first place (Triumph).
Now of course Triumph only costs 3cmc in reality, so there is always the option to play it on or closer to curve which you couldn't do if that card were to be replaced with a more expensive card. We could play Triumph on 4 for example where we couldn't play a 6 cmc card
Normally this would be an advantage for the card, but as we have already discussed, playing Triumph on curve is exactly what you DONT want to be doing, since it is directly going to be cutting into your early tempo and generally only exists to function as an engine to keep the gas flowing in the late game, an engine that requires you to have a significant board presence to function, something which you aren't progressing if you are casting 3cmc enchantments in the early turns instead of actual creatures.