No no no a thousand times no.

JD


From JD, page 6 (viewed at 20 posts per page)


Yes, that is your point. That along with the idea that because Ambar is at L-2 on Day 1 indicates he must be town and scum are voting him to which I've already addressed.

I'll restate my argument against your idea very simply: The idea that Ambar is town simply because he reached L-2 is faulty. Ambar could be scum. It is as simple as that. Is he scum beyond a shadow of doubt? No. Is he town beyond a shadow of doubt? No. There is no way to tell right now aside from killing him.

What you brought up originally, as I've said before, can be used as an argument for any wagon that comes along (for Day 1). You're playing off the idea that, "Oh, how quickly this wagon has come about. Obv this is going to be a town lynch," yet we don't even know for a fact that Ambar is town. Not unless you have inside information.

Note: If you're not following what I'm saying here (this is not directed at you JD but to everyone), then what I'm saying is that the view Ambar is town because of what is being stated is based on the ***idea*** that more often than not town are lynched first before mafia are. As I've said before, this is not always the case and as such should not be treated as a "fact".

JD


This is half correct and half incorrect.

First, yes this wagon on Ambar has sprung up quickly.

Second, no, there is "information" to back it depending on what you considering "information" to be defined as. Same thing for the "no real arguments to support it" deal as well. Pretty much, I set my sights on Ambar by focusing on a post of his and giving my opinions in regards to it. I clearly showed, as far as I am concerned, that Ambar was shifty with his thoughts in his post that I focused on. Based on that, I proclaimed him to be scummy because of it and went after him with a vote.

Since then, others have jumped on because of w/e reasons they have. Fred, I believe, concurred with my assessment of Ambar's post and voted him. Lilian just jumped on for whatever reason (never was explained I believe so it truly would be a bandwagon vote there). Then you have both MoD and Confused who stated reasons that could be likened to what I had originally said, but it was their own words.

So yeah, there definitely is a real argument supporting the wagon on Ambar.


JD


Yes and no. Lilian hasn't reached L-2. But what if she did? Would her lynch be scum propelled just because she is at L-2?

The argument can be applied to her wagon ***if*** someone decides to voice it when she reaches L-2. And the only difference between that, if it happens, and Ambar's wagon would be that Ambar's occurred first to which I say, so what?

When we construct our arguments against people, it'll be based on their actions/words. How quickly or how late someone got to L-2 will not tell us beyond a shadow of doubt that someone is town.


JD


Do explain how Ambar's wagon is not justified? Has Ambar not made posts that we can analyze?

Like me, Ambar has made posts that people can read and examine. I do not see how his posts are exempt from being considered useful in justifying a wagon on him. Actually no, I see how. You'd have to have the opinion that differed from my argument against him. That would mean then you could dismiss his post as being useful to my arguments and, consequently, my posts/arguments (as well as others) would not be justified. Problem with that is that it is your opinion. An opinion which differs from mine, but does not negate it in any way.

Note: Being D1, even a wagon on me that forms slowly wouldn't have any "information" to back it aside from posts I've made that people form opinions on. No different from opinions formed based on posts by Ambar.

JD


Yeah, it's clear as glass now. You and I strictly have a difference in opinion as far as what it means. You think the argument would not apply. I think it would.

Just to be clear, we're talking about the argument that because someone is at L-2 on D1 they must be town correct? Your view is dependent on how quickly it forms (in this case you arbitrarily chose 48 hours *Note that it was arbitrary). Whereas my view is independent of how quickly it forms (that is, even if a wagon formed 4 days from now, you could say the person is likely town because it is only D1 and scum could be pushing it).

JD


Perhaps in a world where JD logic reigns supreme, sure; however, I am in complete disagreement with you. Simply because you're arbitrarily setting the standards for your point of view which do not hold up to reality.

Case in point: Look at what Garen said. Apparently this is the most active D1 he has been a part of. That tells me that you don't normally get people talking as much as has happened here which, for me, implies that a wagon very well could form down the road later on (after 48 hours) in most other games. And yet, in these other games if the first wagon happens and gets someone to L-2, what is to stop someone from using the argument that, "Oh hey this person is close to being lynched on D1 and must be town. We should, instead, look at the people voting on that wagon as one could be scum."

It takes no stretch of the imagination to notice that this argument can easily apply to any wagon on D1 that reaches a point of L-2.

Course, I can look at it from the other side. Suppose a wagon does happen in the fashion you describe that you cannot apply your view to. Ok, wagon formed on D1 after say 5 real life days (well past 48 hours). That wagon must be perfectly legit (meaning that the person to be lynched very well may not be town) and we should have no reason to suspect that scum were on that wagon. Yeah, right. Completely realistic to think like that.



Lilian


I'm sorry if you got that idea based on what I was saying since that is not what I am implying at all. Rather, I'm saying a wagon could form on potential scum and, to help stir the wagon away from their teammate, some scum could jump on said wagon while JD's argument is implemented, "obv this lynch must be propelled by scum and we're likely going to lynch town."

Hope that clears up what I've been saying.

That name does ring a bell. I've definitely played mafia with you before.

That's a pretty long post over defensive KoD. As of this sentence I haven't read the whole thing, I'm contemplating not, because doing so would just result in line by line response and would spiral into a post wall war. Maybe that's your intent. The more I talk, the more people don't listen to what I say, I think you know this. So for now I'll just address the main point to which each of your subsequent points undoubtedly sprawl from. If I see anything in it later that doesn't fit this criteria I'll address it separately.

These are my words: The wagon on Ahl Ambar reeks of classic Day 1 wagon on town. Has from the start. I'm surprised people are still jumping on it. Well maybe not Confused. But we are less than 48 hours in and Ambar is sitting at L-2. Clearly if we want to find scum today, we just need to look to the five that are on this wagon, as at least one of them is likely to be scum.

You would have the populace believe that Ambar being at L-2 is the starting point of my logic. Let's look at the first two sentences though. The Ambar wagon reeks of a town mislynch. It has from the start. From just these two sentences we can conclude that my logic that Ambar is probably town does not start from the fact that Ambar is at L-2. Hell, at no point do I even begin to use L-2 as a reason Ambar is probably town. The only thing I show by pointing out that Ambar is at L-2 is the speed with which the wagon has formed, which as you'll recall is one of the three factors I mentioned. Getting back to those first two sentences I reference the classic notion of a Day 1 town mislynch. These occur because of either lack of reason, lack of information (I'll clarify what I mean by information - hard facts, opinions I consider in reasons, not information), or a combination of both. I have pronounced the Ambar wagon to be a combination of both, creating factors two and three of my argument.

To put this matter into an unquantified state, I've asserted that a + b + c = d. I've further postulated that removing any of the variables in this matter prevents one from reaching the conclusion of d. Meanwhile you've continually tried to assert that a = d. Requantifying this we see a, b, and c are speed of wagon, lack of information, and lack of valid reason, and d naturally stands for defense. A quick wagon with no information backing it and piss poor reasons is not a good lynch. The clear remedy is to look elsewhere. Individually these things don't make good defenses. Take, for example, the slip example. A quick wagon will form there, but that's not a valid defense. Showing the slip isn't a slip, maybe, a quick wagon no. Let's take lack of information. WIFOM is a perfect example of a situation where you will not have the information you need but will eventually have to make a decision. Reason is going to win out here. If there is good reason to believe one choice over the other, it's a valid course of action to follow. If there isn't, it's a bad move for town to make. As for reason, that can always be trumped by information. Say Bob is playing a perfect game as scum but gets investigated. You may not believe Bob is scum, but the investigation is going to override your opinion.

So as I've said before, for somebody to throw around my argument they are going to have to assert all elements a, b, and c. Throwing one around is going to do jack diddly.

@Ambar: Hmm, hi Zherog?

Personally, as I can recall, I have never seen a day where the players end it early save lylo. Certainly not on day 1 either.

Regarding a mafia-driven bandwagon, wouldn't it be likely for KoD or Freddeh to be the one too? Mafia-driven would imply that mafia kick-started the entire thing, right? Atm, I would prefer if Lilan just gives a reason, I assume she is agreeing with MoD's given pov but it would nice if she at least states her reason.

And what is this "L-2" terminology?

"L-" is a shorthand form of showing how many votes a player needs to be lynched. L-2 in Ambar's case means two more votes and Ambar is lynched.

And by "players end it early save lylo", I meant that as the mafia's doing. Even then, it usually drags on for some time.

Okie, thx.

*waves back at KoD*

Yeah, I'm not exactly changing my MO. But you all know that from me. I'll hop in if I see something serious happening and/or I have a few hours to spare and read carefully. Probably sunday or monday.

Pshaw. I played over there since 2004 nonstop. I remember everyone that came in and went away.

I'm familiar with the way you treat my posts JD.

Suffice it to say here is what truly matters:

You're wrong in what you said because it is strictly your opinion. And since we're into the part where we're talking about not reading whole posts, I've likewise done the same with yours. I only read the first line, saw how you felt, and responded in kind.

Jeez, I forget how wordy you can be KoD XD

I still don't like what Rubik said, but I want to push the Ambar wagon to actually L-2, and I REALLY don't like how much he's scrambling and pointing fingers and overreacting to the wagon. It could just be scrambling town, but a vanilla town really shouldn't be that worried about getting lynched Day 1. Especially when he isn't even at L-1 yet.

Unvote, Vote: Ambar

JD versus KoD is likely a town blowup waiting to happen, given both of their personalities, so I hope it doesn't get too distracting.

What else happened? Some people are being quiet and choosing to wait, not really what I prefer but I can't fault them too much for it yet. I knew that HW was from the mothership but i forgot you were Tmich *waves*. PP seems slightly scummy, and Lilan is seeming scummier by the post with all his non-contributive posts.

The difference between you and me, KoD, is that I didn't need to read your whole post (although I did) to know that what I put into mine completely addressed yours. To bad yours fell flat at that.

I don't think I've played a game of mafia with you before. I was pretty active on Px2 between 2012 and wizards destroying all the usable features on the site.

ambar literally said "i don't care if i'm lynched" freddeh

There's no difference JD. Like me, you're just another player that is giving an opinion. It just so happens that, like me, you're bullheaded in your thoughts to the point of arrogance.

I assure you though, how you view Ambar's situation is entirely based on opinion rather than fact. No matter how you spin it.

And I still stand by that. I still think it will give town the most information.

If numbers and KoD are both scum, then town is in trouble. I think it's pretty likely that one of them is.

Can I just say that I disagree with numbers. Wagons early are often populated by town. It's a good scum tactic to let the town lynch themselves instead of pushing hard for a townie lynch.

If Ambar wants to be lynched, btw, can we just lynch him?

Incorrect. The speed of the formation is a fact. The lack of information around the rise of the wagon is a fact. While you're right in that I'm asserting an opinion in saying that you not liking that Ambar posted his train of thought isn't a valid reason to lynch him, that doesn't diminish the other facts involved. And as I've said numerous times before, my argument is based on those three things combined, not those three things independent of each other.

tldr: numbers thinks the ambar wagon looks like a town wagon, KoD disagrees

was that so hard

We've been through this. All you're doing is arbitrarily setting the standard to judge it by when, in reality, this and other such situations are similar. But I know how you feel about it so:

1) You're just plain wrong. The speed doesn't matter. The lynch candidate could be town or scum.

2) You're wrong. The lynch wagon on Ambar is based on information and opinions. The opinions I won't bother addressing. The "information" in question comes from Ambar's own post of which I assessed him to have scummy behavior by, essentially, being contradictory in his thoughts/approach.

As far as I can tell, given the extent of our conversation, you obv do not see the same.

Now then, something different. Why don't you give some insights on the ppl voting Ambar so that we actually have useful information from you JD. I know I would enjoy seeing your thoughts since you brought it up in the first place.

Yes, yes it is that hard Lilian. My view of it is more accurately summed up by these words:

I feel JD brought up the "town wagon" idea as a way of drawing ppl off the wagon and directing attention elsewhere.

The rest is just me being opinionated over details.