It is a reason, and likely the actual reason, it was just not stated. It's not a good reason, but at least it's honest.

I was thinking that MoD was just mis-guided town, but I'm starting to slip to thinking that he's scum trying to mis-guide the town.

I'm not sure about the count, but I think I might be up to 5 already... so, I'll make my claim now. I am 100% vanilla town. So, if someone from town does have to die, I'm fine with it being me over someone who might have an ability. Just promise me (town) that, when I do flip vanilla town, someone will actually look back at this and try and use some of this info to actually scum-hunt.

Personally, I still think the Lilan is the most likely to flip scum.

Oh. And Garren. His not posting is starting to get suspicious.

I know you bro.

The wagon on Ahl Ambar reeks of classic Day 1 wagon on town. Has from the start. I'm surprised people are still jumping on it. Well maybe not Confused. But we are less than 48 hours in and Ambar is sitting at L-2. Clearly if we want to find scum today, we just need to look to the five that are on this wagon, as at least one of them is likely to be scum.

the first one to unvote is scum

Of course I'd be in a game with a bunch of people I've played with before. Ahylis just puts the icing on the cake for me.

I have a problem with your post JD (Numbers, but I'll refer to him as JD).

My problem is that you invoked, within your post, the idea that we will likely lynch town as opposed to mafia. I have no stats to speak of, but I'm sure, in general, people will agree when I say that it is true town gets lynched first instead of mafia.

That being said, this is not a law that holds true in all cases. In our particular case, Ahylis ( Ambar , assuming Ambar really is Ahylis) could be the unfortunate mafia scum that will get lynched first.

Only way to know is if he is lynched.

But that isn't the heart of the problem for me. The heart of it is that in bringing this up JD you tactfully neglected to offer more on the thought. Yes, perhaps Ambar really is town. Perhaps one of is voting him is scum. Why, then, not offer more on what you brought up?

My guess is that, assuming from strict paranoia, you could be scum trying to steer the lynch away from your partner in scum. Buy that is only a guess.

The main thing is that you have thrown before us something that will give us pause when considering it. And you've offered nothing else. Just the bare minimum. I find that to be awfully scummy of you.

Notes:

1) My comments towards JD focus on what I consider to be subtle things. If Numbers truly is JD, then I'll give no ground in my thoughts when considering his words for he is skilled at the art of mafia.

2) In regards to what was brought up by JD on Ambar, it could be applied to any wagon that pops up to this point. If such a wagon were developing on a scum, it wouldn't take much for scum to vote their own partner and make an argument, similar to JD's, about it.

At the end of the day though, it'll be speculation until someone is dead. Ambar's death will definitely give some connections. But the same is true of Lilian if she is lynched. Either of these two I am personally ok with dying. If more people keep talking to offer more opinions on what has been brought up, then I may change my mind should what is said be enlightening.

KoD - knowing the one piece of information that I know, I think it's more likely that numbers is trying to distance himself from my lynch so that, once I flip town, he'll be able to say that it was a bad lynch, and take pressure away from himself in the future.

That, or, of course, he just believes that I'm town.

I am not Ahylis. Don't even know who that is. Once the game is over, if people have not figured it out, I'll let you know who I am and why I'm using this account. However, I can confirm that numbers is JD.

At this point, I'm honestly 100% fine with my getting lynched. At this point, I think that lynching me is the best town lynch, as it will provide a ton of info for the future. Of course, I'd rather lynch scum, but, like I said, if it's a town lynch, I think that will be the most info we can get.

The style Ambar displayed reminded me of Ahl slightly, but Ahl refused to come here when Px2 closed shop so I doubt we'd ever truly know even if Ahl did finally decide to come here. I find the effect of that slight joke hilarious though.

Also it wasn't tactfully, it was tactically. But let me ask you this, if a wagon cropped up on scum, how could scum jump on it and then use my argument as a prop for it? I feel like you're trying to dis-sway my argument by attempting to use it against me, but the facts remain that no other wagon will reach L-2 in less than 48 hours of the start of the game because we're about to pass that window. So unless a wagon crops up in the next 4 hours or so I'd say your point has no validity.

@Ambar: Hi Alt.

The question you need to ask yourself is why would i need to distance myself from your lynch (this is quite wrong because I wouldn't be "distancing" from your lynch per say so much as an expected town flip)? I was never part of it, and actually partook in the counter wagon, which frankly doesn't distance me from it at all. In fact it quite heavily ties me to it.

In b4 it's kroen.

Thank you for the correction Ambar. Although it would have been greatly funny if you were Ahl.

Correct me if I'm wrong. JD was not after you. He jumped onto Lilian. I don't see why he should even bother distancing himself from your lynch since he is already away from it. That is, he isn't voting you nor saying anything negative towards you.

For comparison look at JaC *Waves at JaC.*. JaC said he was staying out of the argument I had against you. He's distanced from you should you get lynched and can say, later on, what JD has said. Anyone could.

Although, looking at my comparison, unlike JD, JaC never asserted indirectly or otherwise that you are town. So you got me there. JD could hold that out there. All the more reason for me to think negatively of him.

Oh I'm here. I just letting people talk and noting things down for later. I find day 1 votes to be an absolute crapshoot anyway; I'd rather look suspicious by not voting then by jumping on one of many ill-conceived bandwagons and have people riding my ass about it later. On the upside this has certainly been one of the more interesting day 1's I've seen in a while.

Oh boy is this a doozy.

If I were Alt, I would have already self-voted or something like that.



I was just offering an idea, based on this:



Since I know that is not true, I was saying that it could be you trying to distance yourself from my lynch, so you have that in the future. I'm not saying that I believe it, I'm just saying that I could see you doing that, if you were scum. The other idea, as I mentioned, is that you just believe me, that I'm town, and are being transparent.

JD has not been after me at all. He seems to be listening to what I post, and jumped on the Lil wagon that I started. Again, if he's town, it makes sense, assuming he believes me. If he's scum, it can also make sense, as it looks like I'm most likely to be lynched, and he would know that I'm town.

JaC always says little early in the game.

And yes, my wording might be off. JD is not distancing himself from my lynch; It's more that he seems to be aligning himself with me. Again, I could see valid reasons for that with him as scum or town.

JD,

To answer your question, time won't matter as long as it is before deadline and enough time exists to change the direction of the lynch. I'll elaborate.

First 48 hours we have someone at L-2. Ok, cool. What if it was the first 24 hours or 72 hours? Doesn't matter.

What matters is the argument. The idea that a bunch of ppl pile onto a wagon and someone says what you said.

We could form a wagon on, for example, Lilian 12 hours from now and put her at L-2. What foes that mean then? Well invoking your argument, Lilian could be town because town gets lynched more often than not first, and someone on her wagon most likely is scum (right?).

It takes no stretch of the imagination to come up with a reason to vote for someone. Scum can do it just like anyone else. Then we're faced with a similar wagon that is different only in when it occurred and the reasons around why ppl are voting for said wagon.

I shall restate. The time does not matter.

By the by your feel is correct. I am using your argument against you because I feel it was scummy of you the way you brought it up.

I think, KoD, you're missing my entire point from my original post (either intentionally or coincidentally). My argument is not that town is going to be lynched this day. It's that the Ambar wagon has sprung quickly from the start of the game, meaning there is no information to back it, and with no real arguments to support it, meaning a hard push on Ambar is likely scum propelled (not necessarily scum started, but carried on). Lilan, I would venture to say, can be molded into a similar argument being Lilan was the early counter wagon (I suspect this is why you used Lilan as your example). No other wagon is going to have this argument to prop it. Let's say a wagon slow forms on you for pushing the Ambar wagon hard. It will not have sprung quickly, will be based on the information from the Ambar wagon and subsequent posts, and will have a justifiable reason to support it. My argument cannot apply here. Let's say the next four days roll by and then a quick wagon forms based on a supposed slip from a random player. My argument will not apply, despite the speed of the wagon. I'm not arguing three separate points, I'm arguing a culmination of three specific events that created one point. All events are completely necessary for my point to be valid. Undermining just one of them undermines the entirety of the argument. So you see, it's not so easy to fashion my argument to just any old Day 1 wagon.

The idea of the mafia team triple hammering someone on day 1 and whistling inconspicuously afterwards is humorous.

Ambar Guess #1: Shadowfyre

It is, but the notion of the mafia team adding on pressure to an existing wagon whenever that wagon slows is not. That's just good lynch control strategy.

I can buy mafia trying to promote the eventual lynch of a town player but I don't think reaching for an early lynch on day 1 is practical.

Why not? There's three of them, it takes seven to lynch early. If it happens there's more townies than scum that jumped on that wagon, doubley so if they can do it without having to pile all three on. That's also half the game to blame, giving them plenty of hiding space. Seems like a decent risk to me, especially given if they fail, it's just an early game wagon that formed then went away when "new" "better" information came along.

Ambar is Zindy you heard it here first

Freddeh please remember to Unvote in the future.

Vote Count
Ambar (4): KoD, Lilan, MoD, Confused
MoD (2): Numbers, HW
Lilan (1): Ambar
HW (1): Rubik
Rubik (1): Freddeh

Not Voting: Scarlet, PP, Garren

with 12 alive it is 7 to lynch, deadline is Saturday, March 4th, 10:19 PST

I guess its not that absurd, but I can count the number of games I've seen premature day 1 lynches in on one hand, and I don't think I've ever had a conversation with my teammates as mafia that involved trying to end day 1 early with a bandwagon