LegenVD,
Your numbers looked a bit off, so I did the math. Assuming a 60-card deck, with a Wayfinder hit on turn-2 you have about a 29% chance of getting one of your desirable fatties in the graveyard. The odds of dropping a particular fattie is something like 8%.
Dropping a 2nd Wayfinder turn 3 yields a 31% chance of hitting at least one of your six fatties (supposing you hit none of them the first time).
I used a
hypergeometric calculator to get to my numbers, which is what most people use when it comes to MTG.
For a T2 Wayfinder:
Population size would be 52 (cards left in deck if on the play)
Number of successes in population is the number of fatties (assuming they're not in hand)
Sample size is number of milled cards (I used 3 for both Wayfinder and Assistant)
Number of successes in sample is the number of fatties you want to hit (so 1)
Then I looked at the results for P(X >= 1), in case we hit more than 1.
There are obviously a lot of factors that can change things, so all estimates will be rough.
So here are a few random thoughts I have on the Golgari Graveyard archetype. The deck does best in my experience when you run as many creature cards as possible. A lot of wins you get are from just going wide with dudes and smashing down, but you also don't mind removal or combat trades because they feed the Spider plan (which is actually plan B in my deck, believe it or not). I'm not sure the deck even needs Craterhoof because Elder of Laurels ends the game just as fast. Elder is also a 2/3 for three so he can come down against aggro decks and block well while 'Hoof is just chilling out in your hand. I also think Rescue from the Underworld is a lot weaker than Nemesis of Mortals in these strategies. You may get a T5 fatty every now and then but I'm getting a T3 5/5 just as often which is much stronger. Sheoldred is a no-brainer for the deck, though, so I have to find room for her somewhere. Other than her, my deck won't be changing because it's just ridiculous as it is.
http://forum.nogoblinsallowed.com/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=4683&start=250#p256598Elder is certainly a good option in this type of deck, but since you're cycling with almost every creature you cast, your hand will almost never be empty. So I would rather be casting more creatures and end the game with a fatty than having to spend mana to activate the Elder which can be more easily killed unless you play him on T7.
In my deck the small creatures are more a distraction for the opponent and not the real wincondition, although against poorly built decks they certainly get there a lot.
Nemesis of Mortals was the last card I cut, as I wasn't very happy about it in previous builds. It not having Trample really hurts the card in a format full of weenies, random Wall of Omens, Cloudshifts and now Young Pyromancers.
suggestion - find a room for 1-of
reclamation sage, this archetype has so many ways to fetch him/retrigger him when needed. and you usually have other things to do with your mana when there is nothing to destroy.
Playing against golgari I find it hard to penetrate the swarm with creatures, but I win quite often with things like
sanguine bond,
blasting station,
sphinx-bone wand,
warstorm surge, etc...
I used to have a 1-of Sage in my previous build, since games could go long and destroying a key enchantment or artifact would be great. With Craterhoof games don't go as long anymore. Tutoring a Reclamation Sage with a Demon is not worth it when you can just get a Craterhoof and win the game.
I've updated the list to include an extra Pelakka Wurm: