How much time do we have until DL?

Just under 24 hours for the deadline to hit.

I'll do a quick votecount when I get home from chess club.

Yes but when you are adding stuff in it's not a matter of what one meant to say vs what he actually said. When you do that you are ignoring what he actually said and supposing you know better what he meant to say.



Of course it does. The first two words of the first line are "I want" not "I need". "I want" implies a desire rather than a necessity. If this course of action isn't a necessity than we can logically deduce that this is a choice. Taking the claimed dual win con into account, we are presented with that choice. Breaking that choice down to simplest terms, we have faction win con vs alternate win con. At this juncture what he actually said and what he meant have not deviated.



None of those help, and that's the point. If the D6 win is independent of Zinger, you cannot make assessments on Zinger based solely on the Day 6 win and how he's proceeded towards it. As for statements Zinger makes on his alignment, you can't take those to the bank either, as his NLP has exceptions on lying about alignment as most NLP's do.

Looking outside this premise, however, I've already logiced as to why there's unlikely to be third party in this game. Which means two is unlikely. Given the sheer unlikeliness of three combined with the fact that Zinger was able to provide the town win con word for word, I think we can agree that we don't see three as the most possible either. This leaves us with one as the most likely to be the case. Yet you call it stupid and then try to assert that Zinger's claimed second win con doesn't affect his possible win scenarios at all, right after describing just how his situation can be changed by said ability.

Why they can't? Why his win-con needs to be exactly like the one expected from a vanilla Town to be for him to be Town? Also, as he said, he has a dual win-con. And one of them doesn't require him to be alive.

You're tunneling on him based on a lot of conjectures you're making, but once you cut the shaft and keeps Zinger's statements at their baseline, you're super invested in the "Zinger=Mafia" case, but it's hard to see reason for that.

[quote="15377This leaves us with one as the most likely to be the case. Yet you call it stupid and then try to assert that Zinger's claimed second win con doesn't affect his possible win scenarios at all, right after describing just how his situation can be changed by said ability.[/quote]

Come again?

When assuming that Zinger is town, we must also assume that the town auto-win has nothing to do with his ability, as he has stated that he wants to be alive for it (since he then wins with his ability) but implies that town will auto-win regardless of whether or not he is alive. Can we agree on this point?

Then, if this is true, then we have the following possible situations:
A) Zinger and other Town are alive on D6: Zinger W wins by Town auto-win and ability.
B) Zinger is the only live Town on D6: Zinger W wins by Town auto-win and ability.
C) Zinger is dead, but other Town are alive on D6: Zinger wins by Town auto-win.
D) All town dead: Zinger loses.

Let's see what happens if he didn't have the ability.
A) Zinger wins by Town auto-win.
B) Zinger wins by Town auto-win.
C) Zinger wins by Town auto-win.
D) Zinger loses.

So the ability did, what, exactly?
Give him the possibility of a W win?
Sure. That makes a lot of sense.

Your problem is that despite you trying to assert that the D6 win is seperate you keep reasoning from the game ending D6. But when you look at the things Zinger has portrayed as facts you are left with:

Town auto wins Day 6.
Zinger has dual win con (eliminate mallet, have his ability trigger).
His ability triggers if he is alive at the end of the game.

What he has not portrayed as fact is that the game is guaranteed to continue on if scum out number town. This is merely a suspicion he is holding.

So in actuality, ignoring things Zinger suspects, based on the things Zinger claims to know for certain his following outcomes are this:

Town wins (including Zinger); Zinger lives and his ability triggers. Double victory.
Town wins (including Zinger); Zinger is dead and his ability doesn't trigger. Single victory.
Town loses; Zinger is alive and his ability triggers. Single victory coinciding with Mafia victory.
Town loses; Zinger is dead. Ultimate defeat.

These are the realms of possibility for Zinger given the information he's provided to us regardless of how town wins, meaning all days before Day 6 are also taken into account, which you have continually failed to do. As you can see not only does his second condition allow Zinger to win twice in some instances, but to win where the rest of the town fails in others.

But it should be noted that this is the case if, and only if, Zinger's ability is not directly correlated with the D6 win.

We should stop discussing double victory. it's mechanically irrelevant; there's only two states: win or lose.
Of your above argument, there's only 1 situation where it will differ between having the ability and not:

Town loses: Zinger is alive and his ability triggers.

That's it.
And, for this to be true, the Mafia win-con has to be something along the lines of:

Kill town until there is no way town can win *except the auto-win condition on D6*

This is very suspect in my mind due to the requirement of game mechanics ignoring each other, not to mention the stupidly narrow nature of the ability.
Out of all the possible situations we've come up with, the one above, where everything just has to happen to be set-up in the way you describe, is the only one where everything Zinger has said up to this point can barely make sense together.
While playing "outguess the mod" may be bad, but seriously.
The situation you describe, where there is a D6 Town auto-win and a mafia win-con that does not take said win con into account, is so narrow that, if, when you put that possibility on a balance with the possibility that Zinger is lying, and you're more inclined to believe the former...
Well, I hope you see where I'm going with this.

Either way, my vote isn't going anywhere unless Zinger can provide more.

Official Vote Count
Zinger
NeoSilk

NeoSilk
15377

Deadline is Saturday 31-01 1800 GMT+1 (about 17.5 hours from now)
9 players alive, 5 to lynch.

Since there's a chance I can't come back before the DL, I'm going to take a stand right now.

Vote: Neosilk

Reasons stated in my last few posts.

The dual win thing is meaningless to me. You either win or you lose.
I'm not going to argue this point, it's been argued to death.

I just don't understand why everyone else can't see it. Maybe it's me, maybe I'm just no good at explaining myself. But, we're 3 town players down, and Zinger is pushing for a no-lynch. I know that town wins if we can get all of the mafia players. Yeah, we might also win if we reach D6, it makes sense with the game flavor, but unless mafia doesn't win by having majority, that can't happen. But still, that's Zinger's plan. And people believe him.

Vote how you like, I just don't see how anyone can want for that to happen. You win mafia by catching scum, not by passing on getting information.

If we no lynched and a protective role stops a NK then it is easy we can get to D6. So it isn't automatically over day 5.





Let's use your numbers

6/3 - town lynch and town NKed that would put us at the 4/3 faster than a no lynch. So if you were town ANY lynch would not be preferable to no lynch. A mafia lynch would be preferable to no lynch. A no lynch today would extend the play, giving cop-like roles an extra night to gather information. A no lynch today would have also offset Squinty's miss-nk from N1.

So even without Zinger's motivation for wanting to make it to D6, a no lynch would have been a viable option. You keep pushing for a lynch and did twist Zinger's words to help push that lynch.

I've split these statement's to how I see them:


Simple. Straight forward. He does not say, or even imply that he needs to be alive. If mafia is dead then he wins.



This one is also simple and straight forward. If Zinger reaches day 6 alive then he wins.

I don't see where the confusion or any implications come from. The only one he needs to be alive for is the second win condition.


Just in case something happens and I can't make it on before the day ends:

Vote: Neosilk

Scarlet, you missed my vote for Zinger.

Also, makes me wonder if anyone except Numbers has read the arguments between us.
It's really uncomfortable when your wall post gets ignored.

Even on the most basic levels your statement is incorrect. There's always the possible outcome of a draw. But that's just on the most fundamental level of a game. Add any sort of complexity and you lose the ability to look at things from that fundamental viewpoint. Which is what such things as dual, double, and personal win cons bring about. As for game mechanics, winning and losing never effect those. The game functions the same whether you win, lose, draw, or refuse to play the game. What it does affect is the motivations of the players, and that's the focus here, Zinger's motivations. So you see the possible outcomes aren't irrelevant at all, because it gives us insight into the player(s) being discussed.



No. For that to be true the mafia win con doesn't have to be anything beyond the standard win con. Mafia do not have to kill the entire town to win. Under a standard win con they could achieve such a feat before D6. If D6 never rolls around, then the mechanic to cause a town auto win is irrelevant. Since, under a standard win con, mafia could leave Zinger alive and still win, there is every possibility that he could be alive at the end of the game with a mafia win.



It's hardly suspect. Mafia have to have a method of winning before Day 6, otherwise the balance of this game would be FUBAR. You seem to be laboring under the notion that mafia have to have some sort of interaction with this D6 win, when in reality it's simply a timer. Mafia have to win before their time runs out. I have seen this play out in games more than once and in more than one way. But because you've designed a triggered effect into your game does not mean that the whole game has to be designed around that trigger happening.

As for what I believe, I do not place faith in what Zinger has told us. As I said before this all got to where we are now, it was my opinion that Zinger grossly misread the situation, which would in turn affect the conclusions he had drawn. But I have also said that I have pieced together what I think is a better (than I had at the time of my previous statement) understanding of what the actual situation is. From there I have proceeded against those that I feel are simply trying to railroad a town member.

@Neo, I can't help but wonder if you've actually read the thread. I have yet to see anybody give any sort of vocal support to Zinger's no lynch plan. Confused voted no lynch to test the possibility of doing so, but made sure to express that was a test and that he wasn't currently supporting the plan. I've flat out said I don't and will not be supporting his plan in the future. Other people that seem to have fallen on the Zinger side of Neo vs Zinger seem more than gung ho to vote for you. So I can't help come to the conclusion that you either didn't read any of what we've said or you're simply ignoring it in a last ditch effort to make yourself look like a martyr to try and get out of this lynch.

So, Vote: Neosilk

Why are you even try to correct me on the "fundamental level"? Perhapse I slightly misspoke in setting the two states to win and lose, so let me correct it: The two states are win, and not win. The prospect of a double wincon is not a good motivator, or even a good ability especially when almost all situations result in you getting both wincons.



The standard mafia win-con, as far as I'm concerned, is "Kill town until there is no plausible way for town to win".
Having a D6 auto-win means that it will always be plausible for the town to win, and thus effectively changes the standard mafia win-con to "kill them all".



Tell me this: do you believe in Zinger's supposed D6 auto-win con?
All I've done up to now is to show how unlikely for Zinger's stated combination of effects to be true.
I personally do not believe at all in Zinger's claims, and you have done nothing to convince me otherwise.
Things simply make a heck of a lot more sense if we accept that Zinger is probably lying.
But you don't seem to think this is a possibility, since you never mention as much.
Pray tell, why do you place so much faith in Zinger's words?

Because you're ignoring (intentional, I feel at least) anything that doesn't jive with your argument.



Your concern is irrelevant. The standard mafia win con, as stated is, "You win when you outnumber or match the town." While it is stated this way to avoid long unnecessarily drawn out games, it is still fast and hard. In games that feature a vig, for example, it does not matter if the vig can live to kill every last mafia player if they've already met the conditions of their stated win con, just as it would not matter if there is an auto win trigger Day 6 if they win before Day 6 comes around. This is why Zinger made a point to say he suspected mafia didn't have the standard win con, but that is a suspicion he has and nothing more. To operate under the notion that town has more leeway than it would in a normal game of mafia is folly given the hard information we have at this time.



Like I said before, and it's massively plain to see with your response here, you're ignoring things that don't back up your argument, much the same as Neo is doing. I suspect things will look mightily bad for you if Neo flips scum with how buddy buddy you're being with him right now.

Vote: NeoSilk

Time is out for me since by the time I get home from work, I'll be too late to vote, so I guess I gotta throw down mine now. Sorry for the inactivity, I'm on 11 days straight for my job right now, so I'm a little too fried to make arguments, but I have been reading. Oh well.

~SE++

I personally believe I've addressed everything that you have accused me of ignoring.

Now who's correcting who on the fundamental level?
We can agree that the mafia win con is fundamentally rooted in tbe fact that town can't win anymore... But you'd prefer to ignore that and go with the 'easier' win con that doesnt jive with the supposed alternate win con?

Also, I think my argument has been separate from Neo's for a long time now.
I simply can't find Zinger's claims believable. But you seem to associate me to Neo.
Which is funny, since I got a lot of flak for accusing Neo of the same D1.
It's almost like you're trying to set up a lynch chain.
But I do hope you're right, since it doesn't look like there's convincing any of you.


Fake edit: And I love all these "I don't have time so I'll throw a vote at the lynchfavourite even though the guy already has enough votes to pretty much guarantee lynch."

Official Vote Count
Zinger
NeoSilk
Storyteller (a bold black in a paragraph is hard to read <_<)

NeoSilk
15377
felbatista
seTiny
Confused
(S_E was 7 minutes too late technically)



It was not too long until a discussion between two players arose. NeoSilk and Zinger both had some strong points, but in the end it came down to a danmaku battle to decide who of the two would be sent to the Yama to be judged.
Even though Neo opened strong, the crowd took zinger's side eventually and NeoSilk was down for the count. His body went to the Yama and it was not too long until you heard her voice pierce your skulls once again:
"NeoSilk was Seija Kijin, mallet aligned"

You celebrate a bit inside and quickly jump back in your cottages/homes or general sleeping area. You have a long day ahead tomorrow.

It is now N2.
72 hours for roles.
Day starts at Tuesday feb 3rd when I get back from work.