Yarium wrote:
Just a reality check...
From the CDC's website:
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/flushot.htmDeath rate from flu shot is between 1 and 2 people per million, so 0.000002%. Even then, it is not the flu shot that is lethal, but rather that someone who has not been diagnosed with Guillain-Barré syndrome has developed it (the rate is 0.000002%) has taken a flu shot. If you massively overestimate, this should mean that there are between 313 and 626 deaths each year from the flu shot. Now, according to the CDC, between 3,000 and 49,000 people die each year from the flu (depending on the severity). They estimate that the flu vaccine has a 60% effectiveness (with a confidence of 95% - which is pretty good, that means 95% of the time, the 60% figure works).
So, if we apply the 60% figure to even the 3,000 person figure, that makes 1,800 people each year that could have died from the flu, but don't thanks to the vaccine.
CONCLUSION: In the worst-case scenario world (most deaths from flu-shot vs fewest deaths from flu), taking the flu shot is still more effective (not dead vs dead) than not taking the flu shot. These are the straight numbers, right from the CDC. You have every right to say that the CDC is lying to you, but then you will need a whole fifty metric tons of evidence to really have any grounds against.
So our OP is actually part of the lucky 99.9998% that don't die from the flu shot... rather than the slightly more lucky 99.9995% that don't die from the flu.
You are only including Guillain-Barré syndrome in those numbers. There could be severe anaphylactic shock from any number of adjuvants, egg allergies, caterpillar allergies, etc...etc... So your 0.000002% is only a small part of the number of people that die each year from vaccines.
Also simply taking vitamin D supplements (as I linked in other posts) has been proven to be much more effective than vaccines in preventing the flu. So most of the deaths you mention could be prevented at a much higher rate by simply taking vitamins or getting enough sunlight each day.
The relevant study is here. It showed a reduction of 58% in Influenza A, which is the more dangerous flu. Influenza B was not affected, but is a much milder form that rarely ends up deadly or with medical side effects. Vitamin D has no known side effects, especially ones that hospitalize or kill.
Your numbers are a bit off though on the prevention rates.
This study shows that those that take the vaccines are only 3% less likely to get the flu, not 60% less likely. So 3% compared to 58%. I'll take the no risk 58% over the 3% with a chance of death any day.
Nice try though. Extra points for actually finding statistics on deaths caused by vaccines. Those things are super hard to find. Your post is a good response with actual data. I applaud you for your efforts and the clarity of your argument. This is how people should try to refute arguments with facts...