I still think that, mathematically, a lynch is bad. But, again, not that much worse.

Aaarrrgh should not target me tonight. Since he can only be scum/naive/sane, if he targets known town, he can only get town (unless he's scum, of course).
I think Argh should target whomever he thinks is most likely to be scum. If he gets mafia, he's either right, or he's scum himself - either way, it's good info.
For Alt/Story, having them both target known town is fine, since we can try and eliminate insane for each of them.

But again, if we lynch and are wrong, we're going to get less info, but will be able to validate a bit more of what we know.

Let's say we lynch Story, and he flips town.
We can remove Insane from Alt's options.

Let's say we lynch Alt, and he flips town.
Well, then we know Fel is not insane. But, Fel's going to die...so that's not helpful.

Let's say we lynch Argh, and he flips town.
We can remove insane from Storys list.

So, lynching gives us 1 piece of info now, but we lose out on a followup from N1.

So...back to the no lynch...
We no lynch, Fel gets killed at night.

My night move is meaningless.
Story/Alt target me, finds out if they are insane or not.

Argh targets Story/Fel, if he gets scum, that eliminates Naive.

So, we lynch, we get 1 good piece of info now, and 1 good piece, 1 bad piece at night.

We don't lynch, we get 2 good pieces of info now, and 1 bad piece. Basically the same, except that we still have another person left, and, if we need to, we can no lynch the next night...

And, as a final closing thought, the only 2 lynches that I would even think about would still be Alt/Story. Those will give us more info than an Argh lynch...

NeoSilk and I agree on just about everything. I'm working on checking up on three different games at the same time so some of my facts might not actually be correct. NeoSilk appears to be able to catch that

I do agree with your last statement.

One thing I disagree with... there will be a lynch tonight so we are losing information regardless. I don't want to explicitly say why I think who is safe and who is going to die, because that is speculation that mafia doesn't need and as such can possibly use that to our disadvantage (I don't know how, but I also don't want to be wrong either).

Hey guys, I'm back. And wow you people analyzed the f*** out of this thing.
I'm just going to confess of the top, though, I lied about who I targeted. Don't hate me for wasting your efforts ._.

Not that it really changes anything.
You guys expressed surprise that everyone seemed to have targeted someone different as well, and it's true.
Since I was the last one to say who I targeted, I chose Argh because I didn't want for there to be the possibility where the scum felt as though he wasn't targeted, for whatever it's worth.
The one I actually targeted last night was Fel.
The result's still the same, though. I was told that Fel was town.



Was this question ever answered?
I had assumed that targeting the same person was a terrible idea since no one would get results back.
And also the reason I found Altimis's suggestion for deciding on who to target at night suspicious.

My apologies on the late answer. I was at work when it was asked, and I needed time to check out other Dethy games to see how they did it so I could make my decision. Sadly, I haven't found a decent listing of standard rules for Dethy, so I'm gonna go out on another limb here:

If the person you investigate is Night killed, you don't get a read since they're already dead.

~SE++

Now you guys see why I said we already lost this game, right? We spent half a Day trying to look like the masters of logic instead of actually scumhunting and now we're left with a bunch of useless scenarios and the Mafia with ALL THE PERFECT INFORMATION to feast on us. We knew from the beginning the one of us would be lying for sure, and we can't even tell if the other 4 are telling the truth, but we choose to go for this claim nonsense anyway, instead of play a game of Mafia.

Vote: Neosilk

For starting all this thing when I knew from the beginning it wouldn't work.

Fel, unless you have also been lying, Neosilk cannot be the mafia. As he is the only one who has reported a mafia read last night, he must be the paranoid cop. So unless there were more tricks going on in the claiming, Neosilk is the most trustworthy player in the game. And please note that he cannot be the one lying. In order for Neosilk to be mafia, he would have had to be lying about his original claim, and another one of the cops must have laid a trap, individual from alt and Storyteller. And since I didn't, then either alt or Storyteller would have had to lie twice, or else you are lying. And then whoever did that would have to hold on to that lie even after it became the most useful piece of information in the game. And that would just be bad strategy.

Also, the mafia does not have perfect information. True, the mafia has more information than the cops, but that is true in any mafia game. On the other hand, the cops do still have valuable info. So assuming that Storyteller's new info is true, that changes Neo's chart to:

NeoSilk targeted Fel - result - Mafia
NeoSilk can be: Paranoid
NeoSilk can't be: Naive // Scum // Sane // Insane

Alt targeted Storyteller - result - town
Alt can be: Sane // Naive // Scum
Alt can't be: Paranoid // Insane

Aaarrrgh targeted Neosilk - result - Town
Aaarrrgh can be: Sane // Naive
Aaarrrgh can't be: Paranoid // Insane // Scum

Fel targeted Alt - result - town
Fel can be: Sane // Insane // Naive // Scum
Fel can't be: Paranoid

Storyteller targeted Fel - result - town
Storyteller can be: Sane // Insane // Naive // Scum
Storyteller can't be: Paranoid

Neosilk still cannot be Scum, let's look at the others:









So, unless anyone else has been lying (and now would be the time to confess), this new info means that I am definitely innocent, and Fel can be Scum after all.

And Fel, since you want us to be scumhunting, I must say that your behavior is suspect. You are the only one who doesn't want to share information, and you throw out a completely unwarranted vote for someone who is the most likely to be innocent, just because they want to gather information in order for us to easier discover who the mafia is? That does not look good, in my book. Also, despite what you say, you haven't done any scumhunting yourself, apart from that baseless accusation. So please explain yourself, or you will move to the top of my suspect list.

NeoSilk is either innocent or there are one to two people still lying about their reads.

One on side, I don't blame him, I did the same thing.
One the other side, I feel he lied about a worse thing.
On top of that, I fear that he may be copying me.

So I'm still more suspicious of storyteller than I am unsuspicious of him.

Yes, I think storyteller is still number one on my list, while felbatista just eased into number 2. Congrats, altimis, you are now only my third suspect!

Well....I still standby, if everyone started telling the truth...we would have it...

By my looking, Argh's breakdown is correct, and now, it's either Fel/Story/Alt who is the scum.

Now, we've got 3 people each with 1 vote on them, and one of them has to be town.

With all of this info, well...things have changed.

Honestly, each of the three suspects have been doing things that seem anti-town, so much that it's hard to pick one that seems more scummy.

And, now we have to couple that with the chance of not getting info, if your target is killed at night (BTW, SE, I fully support that, I think that's a great rule to add).

Honestly, and I hate to say it, but I'm now less suspicious of Alt and more on Fel/Story.

Since we can no longer expect to get more info from a no-lynch, due to the NK changes, I'm going to flip on my thoughts and say that we should have a lynch today. And, it should either be Fel or Story.

Right now, we have 2 shots to get 1 person out of 3. Fel's vote is VERY suspicious as it does absolutely nothing, and has 0 chance of getting scum. Story going back on his....story...is also suspicious.

Alt, as I've said a number of times, is really just all over the place, and could be read as scumhunting or scum-hiding.

But, for my vote, I'm going to vote for the person who's done the least to help town.
Unvote:
Vote: Fel

We have no reason to believe anyone's telling the truth. This is a Mafia game, people are supposed to lie. What's the proof that Alt or Story isn't Mafia figuring his original lie was putting him on a bad spot and tried to shift the focus to someone else? What's the proof that either Neo or Alt isn't Mafia that built a lie early on and is now driving the conversation? What's the proof that anyone here is speaking the truth?

If I now make a second claim, how do you would know which of them is true and which isn't? That's my point, we can't take things at face value in a game of Mafia, specially on D1.

If you think I'm working against Town, lynch me. I don't really care. All I'm saying is: don't be like Ned Stark. Don't believe on someone that wants to backstab you.

Well....town should tell the truth - this is not like a normal mafia game. We know all of the abilities, and, if the 4 town members are honest, we should be able to figure this out. We don't know that people are telling the truth, but, only the mafia has any reason to lie.

Fel - honestly, I don't think you're working against town, but you've not done much to help.

I think it's more likely that mafia would lie, and openly change their story, but, I can see why town would think it would be a good idea to do that, even if I disagree, believing that it's not a good idea...at all.

The only thing I know for sure is my results. If I assume that only 1 of the 4 other players is lying, then we know Argh is town. If more than 1 town is lying, then we really know nothing.

With the changes, again, I'm saying that we have to lynch today. Lynching will give us information. If we don't lynch, and people look at whomever gets killed at night, then we lose info.

So, unless someone else wants to admit they lied...the lynch has to be Alt/Story/Fel.

Right now, I have Story/Fel as the most likely, and somehow, Alt has slipped down a bit.

Fel/Silk/Story all have a vote against us. So, as of now, it comes down to Argh, basically picking between Fel or Story - based on his post, I expect him to vote for Story, which I'll support.

I was going to vote storyteller, but if fel does not want to share information and help figure this out, maybe he would be the best person to lynch. That's where I'm leaning right now, but I don't want to place my vote just yet. If fel starts playing more actively, and doing some of the scumhunting he's saying we should have done all along, then I'll vote for story. If fel doesn't impress me (or if storyteller comes in with more useful information), fel will get my vote. I still have a few days, right?

The round ends 1:00 pm Friday, May 30th, 2014.
(3 days from now)

NeoSilk: Vote felbatista
altimis: Vote storyteller
felbatista: Vote NeoSilk

No fingers of suspicion as of yet.


~SE++

That's the problem. I have no reason to believe this is going to work besides your word. This is not a puzzle, it's stil a Mafia game. People won't tell the truth because you're saying it's good for Town. People will do what they think it's best for Town.




Seriously, I don't know what kind of info you still want from me. I gave you my target and my result (which I think was a mistake, but not giving those would just make me lose my head at this point), and I even placed a vote for you to know who I think is scum. Do you want me to give more? Fine. Let's see. If you want a suspect from me that isn't Neo (because you choose to believe he can't be scum), I would say story. I even feel there's a bigger chance that Neo is scum than story, although I think I can build a stronger case against story.

I think Neo might be scum because he fabricated the scenario where we win the game by giving all the info up front, and now is driving the conversation based on that. And we all fell for that because it sounds logic that we can deduce the Mafia player in this game just by revealing targets. Note that Alt did much of the same thing, but his posts felt more genuine to me. Also, I don't really like Neo's last post. It sounded to me like "Look, you might be right and Townies are lying, but I'm still voting for you because you don't want to play the game in the way I want".

I think story might be scum because he saw how easily people ate Alt's lie about his vote and tried to shift the focus somewhere else, by changing the scenario. Of course he wouldn't choose a scenario where he is the one that can't be Mafia because that would be too obvious.

And about the scumhunting I promised, it started the moment I casted my vote, and I'm drawing conclusions since. You can either join me or, by the looks of your posts, vote for me.

Well, you can say I changed the scenario, but as far as the group is concerned, it went from 2 confirmed town to 2 confirmed town, so... yay for changed scenario?
I'm not about to suggest you exonerate me for not causing a big difference in town standings, but I do hope that you guys wouldn't use that bit of WIFOM to judge me.

It didn't go from 2 confirmed town to 2 confirmed town.

It went to, now we don't know who is or isn't telling the truth. As of yet, we have two people as having lied or are currently lying.
What's to say that NeoSilk isn't Lying along with another player or two.

When it was each of us targeting a different player, it became a puzzle. Now that we have a confirmation of at least two bluffers (who may or may not be ill-intentioned), we don't know whom to trust anymore.

Urgh... so much for thinking we had a super lucky day one.

Hey Fel...

No fabrication. I really think, from a mathematical standpoint, that we (town) could win this game simply by being honest and not lynching. However, it seems like very few people have agreed with me.

As for me being scum...the only way that I can be scum is if someone who is town is lying about their target/results. That's not a feeling or a guess, it's proven. Well...making the assumption that each of the 4 cop flavors is used once and only once, and there's only 1 mafia player.

If, by some chance, there is an unused cop flavor, and two people with the same cop role, then yes, that throws out everything that's been "proven". Personally, I think there's 1 mafia player, and one of each of the 4 cop flavors.

I really don't see how town could even think about winning this game without sharing info. Yes, this is 100% backwards from "normal" mafia games...but, this is not a normal mafia game.

So - as I've stopped and started writing this a few times (darn kids pulling me away....).

Fel - Part of me thinks that you are trying, but most of me thinks that you're just trying to confuse town, which is a scum move.

If you think I'm scum, then one of the other 4 players has to be lying. So, which of the players is lying? I mean, we've already gotten two to admit to lying (or one that admitting, and one that changed to a lie).

I will say, if town does continue to lie, then we really just have a 20% chance of winning tonight, and a 33% chance of winning tomorrow, when we're down 2 players.
If everyone (aside from scum, of course) tells the truth, the numbers shoot up. For example, if there's only 1 person lying now (the scum, of course), then town has a 33% chance of winning with a lynch today. That's a HUGE difference.

I 100% agree with this. Even if we don't get the "perfect" scenario we thought we had, being honest makes us more able to win.
If we all wanted to start over.

My read:
storyteller is a cop.

NOTE: If you lie at this point, and you aren't mafia... you will lose town the game.

This, I can agree with. I'll restate here, I targeted Fel, and he came back as scum. As I posted in one of my first posts. You can either believe me, and that I'm town (as proven by the other's results) or believe that I'm scum, and that someone else is lying in a way that makes it look like I can't be scum....which just doesn't make any sense...

Or, SE threw us a loop, and there are cop flavors that are not used and duplicated. *Shivers*

Please notice that even though I disagree with the way you guys are playing this game, I provided every single piece of information you requested to me. Here, I'll even do it again for you.

My target was Altimis and my result was Town.

What I can't do is trust the information you guys are providing more than my readings of the game. At least 2 people confessed lies in this game, which means at least one Town player did it. I won't get in your way of finding scum, I'll even target the guy you tell me to target if I survive the day, but my vote goes for the person I think is scum, even if you guys believe that person can't be scum (that won't be the first time this happens). You should have no problem reaching majority even if the Mafia player doesn't vote with you.

Maybe you believe me. Maybe you want to lynch me. I'm really not afraid of losing my head if Town thinks this is the best thing to do. I'll just do my best to figure Mafia in the way I think it's right.