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Pending PRO TOUR Guilds of Ravnica - Winning Meta Predictions
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Author:  SquiderDragon [ Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:24 am ]
Post subject:  Pending PRO TOUR Guilds of Ravnica - Winning Meta Predictions
Oh to be one if the Top Pro Tour teams. What excites and ignites MtG is the new sets, new mechanics and seeing how well the Top Teams do at cracking the meta. Whilst playing only in the lowly Bronze Tier 2 in Arena and as principally a free to play player at best I could assemble a half decent Tier 2 deck. Currently this is a Golgari build with several win cons via Vraska (2 of) and token beat down mainly. But running at about 56% over a 50+ series of matches (tracked).

The foils are mainly Boros Aggro. Dimir with surveil is also strong. I think RDW red aggro’s wings have been clipped as I have nearer 90% against those but red aggro builds with bane fire finishers are getting better. I don’t see so much UW control and can usually beat this via the early Vraska ultimate. White though has tools to remove annoying permanents.

Another foil versus golgari is Izzet and I expect maybe at least some Izzet storm builds or similar to feature. Recently the Dimir hand destruction builds are getting stronger. Finally back round to golgari where I saw a very good unearth deck which featured the land I think (was difficult to work out) that returns a creature I think at either upkeep or draw step. With Charnel Troll filling your graveyard seems it can be pretty strong but I guess consistency may prove it not making the cut.

What from your own experience will a) make the top 8 and b) take the title?

Only the wait for November to find out!

Get your predictions in NOW! SD

EDIT: my own for ref in a) is Izzet, Dimir, Golgari and for b) tough but will go for some form of Dimir surveil deck
Author:  AD2016 [ Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Pending PRO TOUR Guilds of Ravnica - Winning Meta Predictions
I don't think surveil is good enough in standard. A lot of the cards it's attached to are weak and the stronger cards like Campaign are really slow to get going as well as requiring you to tap out on your turn. Dimir seems like a losing proposition against green stompy, esper control, jeskai control, mono-red (if that's a thing), counterburn (if that's a thing) and probably golgari since it has so many answers.

I'm thinking that we'll see golgari, jeskai control and esper control. Outside of that I have no idea but I hope we get something surprising like the Nexus Fog from last time. The Explosion deck is cool, not sure if it's too easy to hate out.
Author:  Auunj [ Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:56 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Pending PRO TOUR Guilds of Ravnica - Winning Meta Predictions
I wonder if an Explosion / Nexus deck would work? With Azor's Gateway (and Primal Amulet and Thousand-Year Storm) you would have the mana to mill quite well. The game is getting slower, so that would be well positioned.
Author:  Auunj [ Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Pending PRO TOUR Guilds of Ravnica - Winning Meta Predictions
Btw. Tocatli Honor Guard will probably make a comback in Mono-White :D
Author:  divinevert [ Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Pending PRO TOUR Guilds of Ravnica - Winning Meta Predictions
I prefer trying to crack the meta myself, rather than waiting for others to do it.
Author:  Auunj [ Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Pending PRO TOUR Guilds of Ravnica - Winning Meta Predictions
Temur nexus explosion mill turbo fog with azor's and thousand year storm? Cast fog, cast nexus, gets doubled by storm :-)
Author:  Cucho Lambreta [ Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Pending PRO TOUR Guilds of Ravnica - Winning Meta Predictions
Abzan Midrange looks quite impressive, kinda weak against tokens but strong against anything else.

PWs
1 Vivien Reid
1 Vraska, Relic Seeker

2 Merfolk Branchwalker
4 Seekers' Squire
4 Wildgrowth Walker

4 Jadelight Ranger
4 Knight of Autumn

3 Ravenous Chupacabra

1 Golgari Findbroker
1 Izoni, Thousand-Eyed

4 Find // Finality
4 Vraska's Contempt

2 The Eldest Reborn

1 Forest
2 Isolated Chapel
3 Memorial to Folly
4 Overgrown Tomb
4 Sunpetal Grove
3 Swamp
4 Temple Garden
4 Woodland Cemetery
___
1 Golgari Findbroker
2 Arguel's Blood Fast
2 Assassin's Trophy
2 Cast Down
4 Duress
1 Karn, Scion of Urza
2 Sorcerous Spyglass
1 Vraska, Golgari Queen
Author:  thedevilwuster [ Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Pending PRO TOUR Guilds of Ravnica - Winning Meta Predictions
I know PT guys like flashy things and blings but honestly if they are also about efficiency I really think mono white has strong reasons to show up. Admittedly we more than likely playing against a small percentage that own all the cards but I think we are playing enough people who are running refined meta decks already. Kryder is having great luck with his and while mine differs a bit I'm also having fabulous games. I didn't know you had to start the Pro Tracker every time before you fire up the game or just haven't been thinking to so I don't have a complete win/loss record but I can tell you in all honesty that I've lost around 4 games in the last 40. I **** you not. I've played against all the decks we discuss here it seems and while there are going to be weak hands now and again and you will lose, it hasn't been because of the decks I'm playing against.
Edit: ...and I'm not even running Tocatli Honor Guard...............yet. Matter of fact I just unlocked another rare wildcard. Hmmmm.
Author:  Sol77_bla [ Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Pending PRO TOUR Guilds of Ravnica - Winning Meta Predictions
thedevilwuster wrote:
I don't have a complete win/loss record but I can tell you in all honesty that I've lost around 4 games in the last 40. I **** you not.

I feel like I lose 2 in 10 to mana issues alone :takei:

Is that such a huge non-issue with mono white? Maybe my perception is biased, I want to blame myself so I can learn and improve.. but there are so many games where I don't see any way I could've pulled through that flood/screw.

Maybe there are two cases I need to separate:

Those I would've surely won without drawing 3 lands in a row but might have still won by making different decisions earlier and those non-games where I never get a foot in the door.
Author:  AD2016 [ Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:16 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Pending PRO TOUR Guilds of Ravnica - Winning Meta Predictions
Mono white doesn't win so much against good decks or in BO3. If your opponent can bring in 4 Ritual of Soot and Cast Down/Craving you're strongly unfavoured. I haven't played loads of constructed with a half decent deck, but I've yet to lose to mono white with my "golgari cards i own" deck in that admittedly small sample (I only run 2 Rituals, 2 Find/Finality, 2 Harpooners, 3 Contempts, 3 Chupacabras, 1 Eldest, 1 small vraska, 1 big vraska).

There's way too many removal heavy decks flying around for mono white to be some kind of dominant force. History of Benalia is a very messed up card though for sure.
Author:  Banedon [ Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:41 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Pending PRO TOUR Guilds of Ravnica - Winning Meta Predictions
I suspect a B/G deck will win, or at least be the breakout deck. The deck has so many ways to generate value: Findbroker and Chupacabra especially are absurd value-generating cards, as is The Eldest Reborn (this can even bring back Golgari Findbroker which can bring back The Eldest Reborn). Assassin's Trophy also functions as a catch-all to any threat, which hurts other decks trying to use Experimental Frenzy or planeswalkers. It's even got maindeck ways to gain life vs. aggro (Vraska, Vraska's Contempt).

Since the value-generation looks close to unbeatable, you're stuck with things like Tocatli Honor Guard (which has a ton of issues), trying to go under it (not easy, Chupacabra is a massive tempo swing), or trying to go over it (*cough Teferi cough*). But even though Teferi decks blank Chupacabra, the rest of the deck still generates a lot of value.

Anyway this is all speculation, the PT is still to come.
Author:  thedevilwuster [ Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:51 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Pending PRO TOUR Guilds of Ravnica - Winning Meta Predictions
You know I didn't even think of PT being BO3. I don't sideboard worth a **** so I shy away from BO3 games.
Author:  Kryder [ Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Pending PRO TOUR Guilds of Ravnica - Winning Meta Predictions
Yeah, mono-White is not a deck I'd take to anything other than best of one free play at this point.

My mono-white deck did well for me the first week or two, but as people adapt to the meta I am finding it harder and harder to win against the decks I am now facing, such as Golgari with all their value creatures, and Jeskai/Dimir Control who both use cheap sweepers that completely decimate my board. My rate vs. mono-red is around 55%, but Merfolk, mono-green stompy, and U-tempo are still favorable matchups.
Author:  divinevert [ Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:18 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Pending PRO TOUR Guilds of Ravnica - Winning Meta Predictions
I have a feeling Golgari will be massively over-represented and thus will likely win, but I'm skeptical it's the best deck.
Author:  Auunj [ Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Pending PRO TOUR Guilds of Ravnica - Winning Meta Predictions
Someone will play against the meta and stomp the golgari
Author:  Cucho Lambreta [ Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Pending PRO TOUR Guilds of Ravnica - Winning Meta Predictions
Golgari it´s quite good but Boris Angels have very good SB for them Tocatli Honor Guard and the flying GY hate Spirit + all the power the deck has might be enough
Author:  divinevert [ Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:15 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Pending PRO TOUR Guilds of Ravnica - Winning Meta Predictions
Cucho Lambreta wrote:
Golgari it´s quite good but Boris Angels have very good SB for them Tocatli Honor Guard and the flying GY hate Spirit + all the power the deck has might be enough

Maybe. My thought would be some kind of flash or tempo deck. Most removal-based strategies suck vs. it because they are generating value when they hit the board, so you need to go faster than them. I'm skeptical Boros would be great, because Golgari certainly has access, especially post-board, to a nice big handful of instant and sorcery removal, not to mention their walkers clearing it out. It's not like something that Golgari couldn't handle, just because it turns off explore and Chupacabra while on sitting on the board.

My sideboard strategy has largely been hand destruction and a ton of patience, basically ignoring playing walkers and just waiting to slam a Chromium to take the game over. A solid argument could even be made to board out Teferi, since it's such a sitting duck to all their removal and, God forbid, Eldest Reborn. If I can board up to 3 Chromiums and use Thought Erasure and counterspells to just drag everything out, Chromium is usually a lock, since they have no real way to deal with it.
Author:  Cucho Lambreta [ Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Pending PRO TOUR Guilds of Ravnica - Winning Meta Predictions
A little GY hate does wonders against that deck, and the Boris pile is very aggressive with Phoenix and Karn you can grind some games
Author:  Cucho Lambreta [ Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:45 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Pending PRO TOUR Guilds of Ravnica - Winning Meta Predictions
Chromium has nothing on Plaguecrafter, 4 of those on the SB and its pretty much the end of the road for Control, I like the Abzan version the most, Knight of Autumn is very worth the splash, that girl is so flexible!
Author:  divinevert [ Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Pending PRO TOUR Guilds of Ravnica - Winning Meta Predictions
Cucho Lambreta wrote:
A little GY hate does wonders against that deck, and the Boris pile is very aggressive with Phoenix and Karn you can grind some games


Does it though? It hurts Findbroker, but most Golgari decks just use high value creatures on their own.
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