Thanks... I'm going to give that a run. How are you doing your calculations btw? I'm curious - I've been looking for a good model to use for that.
Here’s a good rule of thumb
Chance of seeing a card in your opening hand (with only one 1 copy)
7/60 = 0.1167 or 11.67%
Chance of seeing two copies = 22.15%
Chance of seeing three copies = 31.5%
Chance of seeing four copies = 39.9%
More than four copies use a hypergeometric calculator
Population size = deck size
Number of success = number of cards in deck (i.e. 23 out of 60 total)
Sample size = time (i.e. turn 3 = 9 on the play or 10 on the draw)
Number of success in population = amount by time given (i.e. 3 by turn 3 or the 9th card seen)
The answer is >= x
Here is a hypergeometric calculator to use
http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/h ... etric.aspxType in 60 for the population size (total number of cards)
Type 16 in number of success (the number of lands which produce
)
Type 10 in sample size (turn 4 on the play)
Type 2 in number of success in population (how many sources of
you want to see by turn 4 aka 10 cards)
The answer is Cumulative Probability P(X >= 2 ) = 0.816 (the very last box)
0.816 * 100 = 81.6
convert to percentage 81.6% and round up to 82%
To find on the draw, change 10 to 11 in sample size field
The answer is 0.861
= 86.1 * 100
= 86% rounding down this time
This method is not mine. I read and learned about it in Patrick Chapin’s Next Level Deck Building series so I have to give credit where it is due. If you want to learn more than I highly suggest picking up his book. It covers a lot more than my **** explaination. Hope this helps.
No that's perfect, math guy over here. Just curious about your statistical method. Totally clear, thanks. :-D also, I think the land change helped.