Showdown AER Meta Discussion Thread

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Sjokwaave

Post subject: Showdown AER Meta Discussion Thread

Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:31 am

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Posts: 1082
Location: Somewhere in Time

The decklists:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fh_DhnqC5gJiv7jFSvk2YyklUy1ZkwY0hI9sRFm56qs/edit#gid=0

Didonko - :w:

White Winnie
THEgreatWood7 - :r:

Boros Aggro
Syber - :g:

Selesnya Humans
Haven_pt - :r:

Rakdos aggro
Origin - :r:

Rakdos Aggro
Infamousgemini - :g:

Gruul Wolves
Binderato - :u:

Blue Flyers
eflux - :g:

Simic Flash
CamperKing - :g:

Bant Midrange
Thelona - :g:

Golgari Aggro
Light - :g:

Golgari Midrange
Giocher - :g:

Golgari Emerge
DeadRoma - :g:

Golgari Snek
Bufon - :g:

Golgari Snek
Atmadog - :g:

Jund Snek
GimmickMan - :g:

Jund Snek
Crazyrazor - :r:

Mardu Vehicles
Fuss - :r:

Mardu Vehicles
TainteD - :r:

Mardu Vehicles
WoodlandWanderer - :r:

Mardu Vehicles
shaolin_cb - :r:

Mardu Vehicles
Sjokwaave - :r:

Mardu Vehicles
Joly - :r:

Mardu Vehicles
despwn - :r:

Mardu Vehicles
Matttoofar - :r:

Grixis Spells
Popo9911 - :r:

Grixis Control
WrightJustice - :r:

Grixis Mill/Control
BATMAN - :r:

Grixis Reanimator
Wintervoid - :r:

Grixis Walkers
theKryan - :r:

Grixis Walkers
Galmael - :r:

4C Walkers
Yondar - :u:

Dimir Midrange
n1gh7w1sh3r - :r:

Jeskai Thopters
TheWizard - :g:

Sultai Grapple
Torgandworf - :g:

Sultai Midrange
Nighthawk233 - :g:

Temurge
WeCoexist - :r:

Izzet Aggro/Burn

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BounceBurnBuff

Post subject: Re: Showdown AER Meta Discussion Thread

Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:50 am

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Joined: Oct 28, 2014
Posts: 4373

The deck that I'm most curious about, and the one I've been trying out this morning, is Yondar's Dimir Midrange. ATM I've managed to see the appeal of turn 2 Ballista > turn 3 Touch for a 6/6 beatdown with potential extra point of ping, but I've had a hard time hitting more than 2 of those 22 lands

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NightHawk233

Post subject: Re: Showdown AER Meta Discussion Thread

Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 9:08 am

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Joined: Apr 30, 2015
Posts: 2225

The lack of Druid of the cowl's (only one running them!) and ramp in general really surprises me, I thought consistent turn 2 ramp would be a feature of this tourney, but it's practically non existent.

Hell there's only 20 expertises kicking around despite how busted they are.

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InFaMoUsGeMiNi

Post subject: Re: Showdown AER Meta Discussion Thread

Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 9:14 am

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Joined: Jan 05, 2014
Posts: 1892

Snakes, Vehicles, & Grixis everywhere!

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-DarkShock-

Post subject: Re: Showdown AER Meta Discussion Thread

Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 9:15 am

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Joined: Jan 30, 2015
Posts: 901
Location: London, England

I guess this is the Unlicensed Disintegration meta, with a side order of Snek.

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DJ0045

Post subject: Re: Showdown AER Meta Discussion Thread

Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 9:24 am

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Joined: Sep 06, 2014
Posts: 11035
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NightHawk233 wrote:

Yeah, the low amount of mid range ramp surprises me too.

Also, the lack of elf decks surprises me too, elfs have been one of the most consistent decks for me this season thus far. 3 main board Rec Sages seems good in this meta, alongside 3 fatal push, really answers vehicles well, and then you get to run elves.

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Goblin Rabblemaster

Post subject: Re: Showdown AER Meta Discussion Thread

Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:04 am

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Joined: Sep 03, 2015
Posts: 1662

Why is it surprising that no few people play 2 mana elf dorks. It's something we didn't really have before, but its not that 2 mana dorks into 4 drops is a viable modern strategy. Wild Nacatl into Swords to Plowshares however is....

Last edited by Goblin Rabblemaster on Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:05 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Sjokwaave

Post subject: Re: Showdown AER Meta Discussion Thread

Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:05 am

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Joined: Jul 11, 2015
Posts: 1082
Location: Somewhere in Time

The more I look at Joly's deck the more it has me intrigued; definitely a bit left field for a vehicle deck. Higher on the curve than most, utilises Displacer, and despite having Hub, Wilds and black mana he isn't running Unlicensed Disintegration. Seems to be favouring :c:

with Foundry for the Displacer effect. If I was that deep in colourless I'd probably consider Smasher myself if I was going into midrange.

Might have to give it a go and see how it plays.

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WoodlandWanderer

Post subject: Re: Showdown AER Meta Discussion Thread

Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:07 am

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Joined: Jul 08, 2016
Posts: 762
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i help Joly click thumbs up on the above reply.

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WoodlandWanderer

Post subject: Re: Showdown AER Meta Discussion Thread

Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:24 am

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Joined: Jul 08, 2016
Posts: 762
Location: Central U.S.

Guess no green druid midrange because everyone foresees vehicles aggro meta... big green ground creatures hydra or wanderer or TKS can't defend vehicles air attack, not enough removals, sweepers are less effective either. Midrange is very awkward at this point. When packed with removals, threat density goes down and becomes too vulnerable to control. This season feels even worse than the last one.

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BounceBurnBuff

Post subject: Re: Showdown AER Meta Discussion Thread

Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:30 am

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Joined: Oct 28, 2014
Posts: 4373

Why use Druid to ramp into a threat turn 4 when you can win on turn 4? Hell, that "threat" can even provide you with the target reach you needed via Unlicensed Disintegration

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zzmorg82

Post subject: Re: Showdown AER Meta Discussion Thread

Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:42 am

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I'm expecting Mardu Vehicles to win in this Showdown aswell; wouldn't be surprised if Grixis Control takes it though.

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megabeast37215

Post subject: Re: Showdown AER Meta Discussion Thread

Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:52 am

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Joined: Jan 27, 2014
Posts: 5045

zzmorg82 wrote:

wouldn't be surprised if Grixis Control takes it though.

Smoke more weed Zz.

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InFaMoUsGeMiNi

Post subject: Re: Showdown AER Meta Discussion Thread

Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:16 pm

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Joined: Jan 05, 2014
Posts: 1892

I crossed out the names and deck of people I believe won't make top 12. I'm choosing 12 players because according to Modulo's math, there will be x1 6-0, x4 5-1's, and x7 4-2's.

Spoiler

Taking a break...I will finish this up soon.

EDIT: need to test the rest to confirm my pick for top 12

Last edited by InFaMoUsGeMiNi on Mon Feb 13, 2017 2:14 pm, edited 5 times in total.

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NightHawk233

Post subject: Re: Showdown AER Meta Discussion Thread

Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:17 pm

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Joined: Apr 30, 2015
Posts: 2225

InFaMoUsGeMiNi wrote:

I crossed out the names and deck of people I believe won't make top 12. I'm choosing 12 players because according to Modulo's math, there will be x1 6-0, x4 5-1's, and x7 4-2's.

Spoiler

Taking a break...I will finish this up soon.

And here's the list of people who care about your thoughts:

Spoiler

Last edited by NightHawk233 on Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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megabeast37215

Post subject: Re: Showdown AER Meta Discussion Thread

Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:20 pm

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Joined: Jan 27, 2014
Posts: 5045

So.. players he likes, or who play a deck similar to his tournament deck or favorite decks. Seems legit.

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divinevert

Post subject: Re: Showdown AER Meta Discussion Thread

Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:21 pm

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Joined: Jul 28, 2015
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Gem predicting his Gruul Werewolves deck is going to make the top 12.

Bold.

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NightHawk233 wrote:

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NightHawk233

Post subject: Re: Showdown AER Meta Discussion Thread

Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:23 pm

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Joined: Apr 30, 2015
Posts: 2225

Seriously though, i'd like to point out during Moss season i think only 2-4 decks made top 8 with that deck over the two tournies, and here you're predicting 9 places for mardu vehicles, that's bold

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megabeast37215

Post subject: Re: Showdown AER Meta Discussion Thread

Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:24 pm

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Joined: Jan 27, 2014
Posts: 5045

divinevert wrote:

Gem predicting his Gruul Werewolves deck is going to make the top 12.

Bold.

It's a deck he likes.. so obviously it's better than 20+ other decks.

I bet he'd blow his load all over anyone who played an Improvise deck with 4 Bonesaws.

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InFaMoUsGeMiNi

Post subject: Re: Showdown AER Meta Discussion Thread

Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:29 pm

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Joined: Jan 05, 2014
Posts: 1892

megabeast37215 wrote:

So.. players he likes, or who play a deck similar to his tournament deck or favorite decks. Seems legit.

WRONG. I crossed out Joly and Woodland. They are good and they play the best archetype but I don't like their builds.

I basically crossed out half off all Mardu decks.

Last edited by InFaMoUsGeMiNi on Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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