let's look at your ideal line of play:
draw a forest, play it.
draw X, play sanctuary
draw X, play forest, play Invader
draw X, play raise, play Scatter.
this sets you up to a decent position turn 4. those Xs could improve it but I don't want to count on them. but until turn 4 you're pretty weak, and you can only go off turn 4 if you get that land turn 1. you have 14 non-bounce lands and 34 cards left, giving you about a 41% chance of hitting it. if you miss that, which you have a 59% chance of doing, you're pushed back to being weak until turn 5. then you've got a 42% chance of getting one turn 2, giving you only about a 66% chance of getting out of a crappy position before turn 6. in such a high-power format that's pretty damn risky.
