Welcome to the 4th Annual Christmas themed Dethy!

The drill is mostly the same. This is just a basic Dethy variant. There will be four "cops" in our Santa from around the world and the ever elusive Krampus in the cross hairs. Each Santa will have a different sanity represented in the form of their Nice-Naughty List this year. Each night they'll check their list to see who has been naughty (scum) or nice (town). Krampus, on each subsequent night after Night 0, will off one of the Santa's as well as having an ace up his sleeve similar to previous years. Each day all players will vote for the player they think has truly been naughty. At deadline that player will be given a lump of coal and be placed in time out (removed from the game). Repeat until either only Krampus is left or Krampus has been given his coal. Now onto the data entry portion of the OP!

Players:
1. KoD
2. Naga
3. Aaarrrgh
4. Tevish
5. Amber

Phase:
Night 0 - Confirmations and 1st Selections

Vote Count:

It is now Night 0. All roles are out. Santas make your initial selections. Krampus just confirm via PM you've received your role. No talking in thread yet.

All players have confirmed in the appropriate methods.

Day 1 begins now. Deadline is set for Friday noon ET.

I figure I'm probably either the naive or insane cop. I investigated KoD and got nice, and there's no way that KoD is not naughty.

same, but got naughty, which sounds about right

Wait, I also investigated KoD and got a naughty result.

I investigated Amber. Heard he was nice.

C'mon Tevish, get with the metagame! Always N0 investigate KoD!

Yeah, that's pretty suspicious in itself, not investigating KoD.

MWUAHAHHAHAHA, I KNEW YOU WOULD ALL DO THIS

AND SO I HAVE PREPARED PROPERLY

AND I

INVESTIGATED







































MYSELF AND GOT NICE




IN YOUR FACE KRAMPUS (Note: As of this point in typing this, I have not actually evaluated everyone's results and will do so after I post this because someone dun goofed by focusing me).

1. Three nice results from myself, Naga, and Tevish.

2. Two Naughty results from Arrgh and Amber.

Note: This will be from my perspective as a good aligned nice santa person thingy.

Arrgh/Amber : Insane/Paranoid

Myself: normal/naive

3. The Krampus has to be either Tevish or Naga.


(From outside perspectives.)

4. The Krampus has to be one of KoD, Tevish, or Naga. Given the posting order, I'd lean towards Tevish being the Krampus, but that's just me.

My own logic analysis

If KoD is a lying Krampus...
Naga is Insane or Naive
Aaarrrgh and Amber are Sane/Paranoid
I'm Sane or Naive. This means I'm Naive and Naga is Insane

If Aaarrrgh is a lying Krampus...
Naga, KoD, and I would all have to be sane/naive
NOT LOGICALLY CONSISTENT

If Naga is a lying Krampus...
KoD and I are Sane/Naive
Aaarrrgh and Amber are Insane/Paranoid

If Amber is a lying Krampus...
I'm Insane or Naive
Aaarrrgh and Amber are Insane/Paranoid
KoD is Sane or Naive, which means he's Sane and I'm Naive

If I'm a Lying Krampus...
KoD and Naga are Sane/Naive
Aaarrrgh and Amber are Insane/Paranoid.

I goofed this one up

If Amber is Krampus, I'd have to be Insane or Naive
Kod would be Sane or Naive
Aaarrrgh would be paranoid or Insane
Naga would have to Sane or Naive

That would mean I'd be Insane, Aaarrrgh would be Paranoid, and KoD and Naga would Split Sane and Naive.

Ugh. I spent give minutes quoting a correction, and then you fixed it before I could post. Annoying.

Anyway, I she completely with that logic. Nice to the first to be cleared.

Wow, autocorrect.
*Spent FIVE minutes WRITING

Also:
*I agree completely

I'm just not doing well tonight.

Not sure if Tevish missed something, despite his correction no less, but

Arrgh being a lying Krampus and the results not being logically consistent would be similar with the approach to Amber being a lying Krampus and the results being logically inconsistent.

There is virtually no way Arrgh and Amber are ever Krampus. The 2 Naughty results to the 3 Nice results alone should clear some players.

And in case that isn't obvious, we can always play it out.

Assume Amber is the lying Krampus and everyone else is truthful.

Automatically you have a situation where there are three nice results which can't be possible because at least one more townie would have a Naughty result (ie. either insane or paranoid Santa). Since Naga, Tevish, and I all came up with nice results, it has to be the case that this scenario is logically invalid. Furthermore, Tevish's nice result on Amber (who is assumed to be the lying Krampus) would have to make Tevish naive while both Naga and myself would have to be a normal Santa (not possible).


*Proceeds to implode.*

KoD, you're forgetting the Insane result. I played it out in my correction. The Amber-is-Krampus scenario plays out like this

Tevish Investigates Amber, Returns Nice (Truth is Naughty). Either "Naive" or "Insane" explains this result.
KoD Investigates KoD, returns Nice (Truth is Nice). Either "Naive" or "Sane" explains this result.
Aaarrrgh Investigates KoD, returns Naughty (Truth is Nice). Either "Paranoid" or "Insane" explains this result.
Naga Investigates KoD, returns Nice (Truth is Nice). Either "Naive" or "Sane" explains this result.

Explanations cannot be duplicated. However, the following layout fits all explanations without duplication.

Tevish - Insane
KoD - Sane
Aaarrrgh - Paranoid
Naga - Naive

And of course you could switch Naga and KoD if you wanted to; Either way would result in a "Nice" verdict on Naga from me, "Nice" verdicts on KoD from KoD and Naga, and a "Naughty" verdict on KoD from Aaarrrgh.

Addendum:

EVEN FURTHERMORE

Based on what Tevish said about him being insane or naive in that scenario, which leaves Arrgh as paranoid or insane, no matter how you force it (starting from Tevish) you'll run into a situation where both Naga and myself (as per Tevish) have to be the same thing.


1. Tevish is insane (making the nice result on Amber make sense if Amber is the lying Krampus). Arrgh, therefore, has to be the paranoid Santa (again, still assuming Amber is the lying Krampus) which makes the naughty result on me make sense. That leaves sane and naive Santa for Naga and I (which work in either combo due to us both having investigated me).

Turns out this is valid because SO MANY COMBINATIONS. My only saving grace here is the likelihood of this scenario compared to the one of Naga, Tevish, or myself being the Krampus.

In the Amber is the lying Krampus scenario, it only works if Tevish made the right pick in picking the Krampus (a 25% chance) vs picking a Santa (a 75% chance). The chance here is not as close as the chance of all of us not picking the Krampus in our initial picks.

It is much simpler (read: more likely) that no one picked the Krampus vs Tevish having picked the Krampus correctly which would force the results to indicate Amber.


I'm pretty much saying I believe Tevish is the Krampus and must die later. Sorry again, Amber.