Day 1: I don't know which one is the red herring because each one is a strong association. If Scarlet or mongoose are scum then Aaarrrgh is the red herring. If Scarlet is town then either he or mongoose could be the red herring. I don't believe that the mafia sniffed out Shippo as our protector, so they must have targeted mongoose and shippo protected him. Meaning mongoose is town. Scarlet could be town or scum at this point.

Day 2: I wish we had something for the Phedly clue to be sure. If it somehow points to Rubik or Scarlet that would mean Niklor and you could be the red herring. Since I don't seen a good connection of the day 2 clues to scarlet I have to assume at this point he could still be town. So at this point it is either niklor or neosilk that is the scum and have to hope the phedly clue is the red herring

Day3: Since I believe Niklor has shown up as a candidate, stronger today than d2, he has to be the remaining scum. The clues that point to me or KoD at this point either of them could be red herrings. I don't think the furtive quartz points to scarlet, so as far as I am concerned he has only be referenced once.

The clues combined with the reasons I outlined in this post. This is why I believe Niklor is the last scumfighter. Now I am fully aware because he was my top scum candidate prior to day 3 I could be seen as finding a reason to fit him to the clues. I know the lengths I went to find alternatives and the birthstone thought was just a hunch last night. Confirmed this morning when I checked it. So I don't believe I am fitting him to the clues is the case.

Alright. Let's get down to it.

@Scar:

First let me start with the tunneling. I have different options at my disposal. I can pursue you or I can pursue Neo. I'm "tunneling" on you because unlike Neo, I am of the belief that furtive quartz is a clue that points to you just like I believe secret topaz pointed to you after Fred came up as town.

With that out of the way, let me be clear of something strictly for you. D1 we were all over the place with the clues. The ONLY reason you were in contention for being lynched that day (and I want all of you to note that that was the case) is because Niklor pointed out that "veiled beryl" was a reference to you on the basis of veiled implying hidden (GobO Account is something to hide behind as opposed to your normal account) and beryl being able to appear in many colors most notable of which was green for emerald (just like the GobO username appears green for you). Despite this we also have other clues come up like 3311 which was linked to Arrgh thanks to HW and the direct quote to Goose (thanks to Goose mentioning it). At that point it became a popularity contest as far as which clue was the red herring. Given the directions Numbers gave us we know the clues point to people. Because of this it was taken as a fact that the quote from Goose directly implicated him making it one of the clues. We were then left with either veiled beryl or 3311 out of which one was the red herring. So it came down to two things on that day: Which clue was viewed as the red herring and which player was the possible scum. After all that occurred (Arrgh's lynch as scum and Shippo dying as the town guard) it came to be accepted that veiled beryl was the red herring in so much that it didn't point to a player.

Now for D2. At this point here is a statement I'm going to restate from earlier in the thread. The clues from D1 =/= to the clues from D2. That is, strictly speaking, the clues from one day have no bearing on the clues from another day. Getting even more specific, just because veiled beryl was the red herring last time DOES NOT mean that secret topaz is a red herring. This is important because we have a lack of clues in the DP from D2 compared to D1 and D3. On top of that we don't have many people referenced by these clues.

Before I continue,

@Tiny: Exactly how do you figure that secret topaz/topaz fits Niklor as a clue for D2? Secret topaz, as I spent some time explaining to you, uses the same reasoning as veiled beryl to apply to Scarlet (as was noted by Fred not in so much as a lengthy description of Scar's avatar but in so much that topazes can appear as green and a SECRET topaz fits the same logic (for applying to Scar) as veiled beryl).

With that out of the way, back to you Scar. You mention obscure clues. DP from D2 (Shippo's DP) is by far the least convoluted with clues that cannot be attributed to direct quotes from someone. What we focused on to the best of our ability were the latin quote which is being viewed as a reference to Neo (of the same strength level as how 3311 applied to Arrgh since the latin phrase's "boys will be boys" is something from the Simpson's episode where Millhouse gets that said to him by a judge as Neo noted). So from Shippo's DP we can say Neo is one such person more than likely being referred to by the clues. Now, because there wasn't too much else to look at, secret topaz and the Pheldy reference were the only other possible clue candidates. No one had an answer for who the Pheldy reference was pointing to, UNLESS you are of the belief that Numbers would allow town clues to point at people in the graveyard (the link to FFP's no lie policy and Zinger having a no lie policy). Of course if you believe that, then you HAVE TO ACCEPT that Neo is the scum just from Day 2. Otherwise, the Pheldy reference is the red herring with SECRET TOPAZ (Note: @Tiny: I don't get why you exclude secret as being part of the clue. You're content to view just the gem as the clue which defeats the purpose of the description of the gem in the first place. After all, it's not like you find "veiled" beryls or "secret" topazes unless they are hidden. Kind of like how the beryl was hidden in the bread. Yet, the "secret topaz" wasn't hidden nor was the "furtive" quartz. Those are descriptions of the gems which should be taken into account as part of the clue. Especially since the reasoning for these applying to Scar (the veiled beryl argument) is sound DESPITE veiled beryl being the red herring in the first go around. If you think Numbers isn't the kind of person who would reuse some clues to cause confusion, you're mistaken. Especially after his description of handling Lilan being Hobgoblin and keeping that from being known (he described it as too framed to be guilty in regards to Lilan). Here, it can be taken as a similar approach. We know veiled beryl was the red herring. What you should also know is that the clues from each day ARE NOT DEPENDENT on other clues on different days. So it isn't unlikely that Numbers would reuse "hidden, green-colored gem" references to indicate a scum Scarlet especially since we've had D2 with little clues to argue about and another hidden gem reference in Day 3. Basically, stop excluding relevant information and focusing on only one part.)

That was a lot. And I have lost my train of thought sitting here typing this.

Anyway before I lose my mind, there is one thing I need to say.

@Neo:

Liar. You are too up for chain lynches. Maybe not as directly as me, but you've entertained the notion that should Scar be town, then pending D4's clues Niklor should be lynched. Now while you can argue that Niklor may not be mentioned in the next set of clues, there's nothing to stop you from arguing he is being referenced (kind of like Tiny's attribution of the topaz to Niklor which is beyond misguided). Essentially your support of a chain lynch is similar to how I was willing to lynch Scar should we have lynched you; however, the lack of reference to you caused me to focus on Scar instead.

Anyway, here's another problem with your outlook as Niklor's position is similar to you. Should we lynch Scar and Scar comes up town, you want to jump to Niklor if he's referenced in the next set of clues. And if he's not referenced, then what? Then we end up repeating what we are doing today for D3 with D4's clues. So strictly speaking, you're saying that despite Scar coming up town we should overlook the fact you were directly mentioned in Shippo's DP. Not only that, but you advocate possibly lynching Niklor if he gets mentioned again or skipping him entirely if he's not mentioned to lynch -- who?

The major issue here being that D2 FOR SURE mentioned a clue that pointed to scum and NO ONE linked any of those clues to Rubik which implies the current scum WAS MENTIONED IN SHIPPO'S DP.



Now for the life of me I don't understand why you (Neo) and you (Tiny) switched your votes to Niklor. He's not posting. So what? Did either of you link him to a clue in Shippo's DP (Day 2's clues)? As far as we possibly know, Neo was mentioned for sure which makes him a valid candidate to be viewed as scum (especially if you're all content on skipping over obvious facts) or (if not Neo) then the other possible person mentioned (Scar) has to be scum. There's no way to gloss over that or skip it.


*Looks at actual posts.*

HW


Read my lips: Day 1 clues =/= Day 2 clues =/= Day 3 clues. You're essentially saying that a clue from D2 is dependent on a Day 1 clue which was a red herring which is erroneous of you to do.


Ok.

KoD - I've been against the chain lynches that you have proposed, as you have been proposing them with the distinction that the following day's clues don't matter. That's where I see your logic being different from mine. Mine is always based on what we get from the following day's clue.



Are you suggesting that I should vote for myself, since I'm linked to a D2 clue?
I think the D2 reference to Niklor is a stretch, but, the D3 one seems much clearer to me. I've also been in disagreement with you that the clues reference Scar - again, they might, but I don't think it's nearly as clear as the reference to Niklor.

If the D3 clues point at 2 of: Niklor, Tiny and KoD, and the D2 clues point at me, and maybe Niklor and maybe Scar then why wouldn't I vote Niklor, as he is clearly mentioned in D3, and might be mentioned in D2.

Clearly, Tiny is the only one who cannot have a secret agenda. Scar, you and myself all could, as, to the rest of town, none of us are confirmed town, as Tiny is.

And, you hinted at a clue from D3 pointing at you, via a quote, but refuse to comment further on it. If it does reference you, then clearly either you or Niklor is scum. If you can link yourself to a clue, if you were town, you would be upfront about it. So, please provide us with that information, as, if it's good, it would narrow the suspects, making it much more likely that Niklor is scum.

In my mind, the most likely scum are, in this order:
Niklor
KoD/Scar

Couple that with his play, or lack thereof, at this point in time, I feel like Niklor is by far the most likely to flip scum. If he ends up being town, then I'll fully reevaluate, based on what we know now, and any information we get with tomorrow's clue, and then determine who I feel should be next.

Neo


Strictly speaking, up to a point they don't matter. In regards to D2 it only mattered with helping to point us at who to look at in regards to you and Scar.

Now though all we're doing is skipping. Quite literally.

Bear in mind that the clues point to 2 people for sure, and one of them is town while the other is scum. For D2 we had only two possible choices to consider for lynching: You and Scar. However, Fred nailing Rubik threw us off of pursuing that lynch (rightly so since we got scum).

The problem now though is you're literally too focused on new days as if we're supposed to obtain a lot of new information for pursuing scum when in reality we're only pursuing ONE scum who has yet to be caught from D2. D3 helped with redirecting my focus from you to Scar. I cannot deny that, and I won't; however, to maintain that each new day is going to help us (as opposed to hinder us) is borderline bad.

As I have asserted Niklor wasn't even indicated during D2. So how is it he's been seen as the most likely to be scum when no possible clue pointed to him D2? Explain that to me. Is it because he hasn't posted much and was not voting Arrgh or Goose (voting Scar instead)? How does that prove he's scum? How come that doesn't prove he's not scum?

etc etc

First the logic of Gobo_Scarlet hidden behind that name instead of JaC doesn't fit, because in all my games played/watched it was not JaC but Gobo_Scarlet playing. Shippo fits that standard more than scarlet because it was Lilan under another name.

As for the Niklor connection since you may have missed it in my second to last post here it is again:


Now the join date on the forums could be used as forum birth for that account. Birthstone - join date. Niklor lurking - secret. Better connection than topazes can be green, as I'll explain below. That was after a lot of effort to actually tie you to one of the d2 clues, because I feel you are a strong enough voice/player to steer the clues from here on giving a mafia win. (If you are mafia)



Now on to the gem clues. Your argument boils down to 15377 used a quote as a clue and since the first quote clue hinted at Mongoose ALL quote clues point to Mongoose. Why would 15377 use a quote again? Because each quote means something different to the others.

Let's look at the words veiled, secret, and furtive. They are ALL synonyms for hidden. Beryl, topaz, and quartz all gems. Therefore the category of this type of clue would be hidden gems, just like the category for the paragraph above was quotes. So while all of these clues can be considered hidden gems, they all mean something different. Beryl points to scarlet's name. Topaz points to Niklor's join date, and quartz points to my avatar. Also you will find that most gems will have a green version. Sapphires, Topazs, Quartz, Beryl, Garnet, Jade, Opal, etc..., so you will find green in almost any gem 15377 decides to use for this type of clue.

[Disclaimer: This gets into out guess the mod territory]Why do I think 15377 would use this? For simplicity. He has to come up with clues for each person. With how quickly this game started after the signup was complete I doubt he came up with a bunch of clues for every person. Instead came up with a set of categories and then fit the user attribute to that clue type. Either a quote, hidden gem, numbers and maybe one other category if the phedly clue isn't a number clue.



Yes see above.



I've shown that the veiled beryl actually has as strong connection to scarlet as the other two clues. There is no guarantee that the veiled beryl was the red herring. As I laid out here in my analysis of each days set of clues:




I was willing to vote for Scarlet when I was less confident on day 2's clues. Now that I found a connection for someone in day 2 that is pointed to in day 3 I feel more confident in my vote. Like I said earlier in this post I wanted to find something that linked KoD to day 2, since he mentioned the quote referred to himself in day 3. However I found a connection to Niklor instead.

Tiny


@Tiny:

Niklor


Niklor


KoD


Fred


All of these quotes came from just one page in regards to the conversation over veiled beryl.

Scar


Not to mention Scar's own agreement over the clue.

The logic concerning the GobO account in regards to hiding is sound and is what sold a lot of people on the clue referencing Scar up until HW's connection of 3311 to Arrgh which ended up causing a huge debate over what clue is the red herring.

It doesn't matter if you disagree with the logic. It doesn't matter that JaC mostly plays on his GobO account (note: he does so since it's easier as opposed to switching between accounts for activites). It's known (Scar hasn't been subtle with this information) that he's JaC. Again, the reasoning/logic is valid.

I will not do a 180 at this point. Let's pretend that you're absolutely right. The logic is horrible and it does not apply to Scar. Since it's a "hidden gem" reference we've (I've) constantly been linking to Scar, we'll just apply this to all references (veiled beryl, secret topaz, furtive quartz). Are you with me so far?

Since we've disregarded that as referring to Scar, we end up with the following situation:
Shippo's DP indicates Neo via the latin phrase "boys will be boys", but no one else is indicated (as we've eliminated Scar as being possible due to bad logic). Agreed? So with only Neo being mentioned, we have no one else to look at for the clues that is valid. Agreed? I ask this because I trust you've not going to say the topaz points to you someone else, right? Moving on.

We get D3 clues. Nothing apparently points to Neo. Ok, we strike him off as being scum for not being mentioned again. So as far as the D2 clues go we have nothing to indicate who was scum. Looking at the clues for D3 though we get furtive quartz which you attribute to yourself (we're neglecting Scar because of the bad logic) and Niklor due to the numbers for his join date. Are we on the same page?

So it's either you or Niklor that are scum. And if Niklor isn't scum, what then? Pursue you? Ignore you like we're ignoring Neo should you not be (possibly) mentioned in the next set of clues?



Edit while typing: I noticed where you said you connected Niklor to topaz/secret topaz via considering his join date (which is in November) and the birthstone for November being a topaz. I'll admit that it could indicate Niklor potentially although the secret part I do not find agreeable at all.


Tiny


No. My argument boils down to the fact that each clue is independent of the others, and since secret topaz (since topazes can appear green) fits for being a clue that points to Scar (via the veiled beryl argument -- which means that the argument for applying secret topaz to Scar is similar to the argument for applying veiled beryl to Scar) it is likely Scar being mentioned. Same with furtive quartz for today pointing at Scar.

Tiny


They don't necessarily mean something different. Yes, the different gems can be found in a green color in some form or another. Yes, that can be applied to Scar's name. They're not different in the context of viewing the clue. They're only different in just the words being used. Whether or not secret topaz points to Scar or Niklor is a coin toss as each is applicable given the perspectives.


Tiny


Incorrect. There is a measure of a gurantee that veiled beryl was the red herring. Since the rules state the clues point to people and Numbers clarified that the red herring does not point to any players we can take it as a fact that Goose was being referenced for sure (due to a direct quote of his words).

That's the town clue taken away. That leaves the scum clue and the red herring clue. Given that Arrgh (indicated by the 3311 clue) came up as scum in the lynch, it is more than likely true that 3311 was the scum clue. That leaves everything else (veiled beryl) as the red herring.


At this point it is simply a matter of perspective on the topaz. Either it points to Niklor like you said and since Niklor is mentioned today he is the scum. Or the topaz pointed to Scar and the quartz pointed to Scar meaning Scar is the scum.

I will be leaving my vote on Scar though.

@KoD:

I agreed before it was crystal clear that it was Aaarrrgh who was implied.
After that was known, Veiled Beryl could also point to him, since he was Green Goblin in Zinger's last game.
Aaarrrgh was the obvious scum implicated in that DP through the other clues found as well.

Word of god says that there is only 1 scum implication in each DP.
Ergo, Veiled Beryl cannot have pointed at me.

@Scar:

When you agreed doesn't matter to me. Besides that, the idea of linking a clue to something from one of the games (in this case the Hobgoblin game) came off as a stretch just like how HAHAHAHA being a clue to refer to Shippo/me came off as a stretch.

But that's neither here nor there since 3311 and the direct quote are the clues that for sure pointed to players.

The only thing that mattered with veiled beryl is the fact that the argument then could apply now via the hidden gems. That's all.

EBWOP:

btw, by the word of god as well, the clues only point to one person each (minus the herring). Arrgh being implied by 3311 would exclude him from having veiled beryl applied to him.

Understandable. You have to believe you are right just as I have to believe I am.

One more comment on the 3 hidden gems =scarlet. If you are correct then I could see veiled =Gobo account (I don't agree, but I can see). Secret=Scarlet Lurking?. Furtive=Scarlet lurking. Slight differences.

However how likely is it that 15377 would continue to use Scarlet's name color as a reference when there are many different things to reference. Name (ruby), name color (emerald/beryl), join date (turquoise), avatar (i dunno), etc...



You and I are at the same point in this. For me it is what to do if Niklor flips town. For you it is what to do if Scarlet flips town. Obvious answer is lynch the other (Scarlet/Niklor). But what to do if they both flip town.

If they both flip town then it means the Phedly quote was more important than we think, the quotes today somehow point to Neosilk or we got one/most of the clues wrong. Hopefully the day 4 clues will help.

I don't fault you for staying with Scarlet. I understand it, I just don't agree.





As for votes so far:

As far was we know Mongoose isn't relenting off Neosilk. Scarlet, Neosilk and myself are voting Niklor. Kod and I would assume Niklor are voting Scarlet. HW is unknown.


Preview edit:


Veiled Beryl almost certainly points to you. There are too many links for it to be coincidence. Let's look at 15377's words:



Huh. Emphasis and capitalization is mine. Apparently I missed the NOT in that sentence before. I've been under the assumption that it could point to someone on the list. So the veiled beryl must be the red herring. Unless we got really lucky that the 3-3-1-1 also lead us to scum.

Goose is only voting Neo due to some reasoning that was inductive or something. He was set prior to the release of the D3 clues much like how I was focused on Neo.

Only difference being that in taking the fact that nothing readily mentions Neo (as far as we know) it would imply he's not scum. I don't think Goose has accepted that.



Now, while we may not agree with each other's intended course for the game (either lynching NIklor or lynching Scar today), neither approach is wrong. Regardless of who is lynched, the outcome will only serve to direct us. In Niklor's case, he either dies as scum or we go back to looking at (mainly) Scar or Neo.


Time to just wait and see.

I wonder what the dead are saying about us.

"This is so hard to watch. Look how hard they are tunneling while the last scum sits there" - the dead probably

Probably.

I'm kicking myself because I only realized yesterday that I could and should have backed Freddeh's last play. I could have come up with plenty of reasons of why I was the cop and who my targets were for n1 and n2.

Exactly

So veiled beryl would not point to anyone. But regardless, it could never point to me.

I saw what Fred was doing as well, but it's not like we're in a bad position without him.

The main thing is to (as Scar put it on the first day) keep track of who was mentioned in the posts.

It's not like the pool of potential scum is so big that we're in danger of losing. Assuming we keep our wits about ourselves and realize that you can only get so many possible scum suspects.

You and Goose are town. Scar (from my view) was mentioned twice whereas Niklor (from your view) was mentioned twice while having Neo mentioned once and you mentioned once (via the furtive quartz if you assume the variation known as Tiger's Eye or w/e to be a reference to you which would indicate Niklor is scum anyway).

Scum is either Scar or Niklor (speaking strictly from the DP D2 clue of the topaz since someone has to be scum there and continue on to be mentioned as Rubik was never mentioned to the best of our knowledge in D2 realistically).

I am switching my vote over to Niklor so we don't have any upsets with close ties. No matter how this goes down, we're going to get answers.


Preview Edit:

@Scar: Yes, and I am not saying that clue points to you as a fact. What I am and have been saying is that the argument used there can be applied to secret topaz and furtive quartz. Nothing more. Nothing less.

(Twiddling thumbs)

I know he's on the lynch block, but it still seems odd (as town or scum) that Niklor has not said anything at all, today...

I'd like to hear from mongoose as well. There has been a lot of discussion and clue possibilities I'd like to know what Mongoose thinks

I'm sure Niklor is out there just going about his own business while thinking something along the lines of, "Welp no sense in trying to win without my team." Assuming he's scum that is. Otherwise he's probably just playing it like how Febb does.