Tevish never cleared KoD, what are you talking about?

Look, I'm doing a deep dive now, so, maybe your perspective will make more sense to me when I'm done.

First post of the day.

But that doesn't clear KoD to anyone but Tevish, which means KoD isn't cleared to the PoE, which means not cleared to you, ergo you don't have the information to boldly claim you have 100% found Krampus yet.

Alright, I finally have a bit of time to do a deep dive, so here I go.

To begin, we have claims:
I claimed two Naughty results on CL
CL claimed two Nice results on me
Argh claims a Naughty on CL and a Nice on KoD
KoD claims a Nice and then a Naughty on himself
Tevish claims a Naughty on KoD and then a Naughty on himself

Obviously, one of these claims is bogus. The other four are legit but may have been tampered with to yield results which lead us astray.

If we take these claims at face-value, we see that:
I could be Sane, Insane, or Paranoid
CL could be Sane, Insane, or Naive
Argh could be Sane or Insane
KoD could be Sane, Insane, Naive, or Paranoid, but regardless of what he is, unless he is Krampus, his results HAVE been tampered with
Tevish could be Insane or Paranoid

Interestingly, when we look at the face-value claims, Tevish is the only one who can't be Sane, and Argh is the only one who can't be one of Naive or Paranoid. KoD and CL seem to be the ONLY possible Naive players, which means if one of them is Krampus, the other must be Naive barring shenanigans from Krampus. This is all interesting but doesn't tell us enough.

I don't believe that it's possible to discount the reality of shenanigans at this point but let's look at that angle first anyway.



At this point in time I think it is clear that either A) the results on KoD Night 1 have been inverted, meaning KoD is not Krampus, or B) KoD is Krampus.

At this point, I need to know my sanity, so I plan to target someone other than CL toNight to try and ascertain that. It will probably be KoD or Tevish or maybe even myself. We'll see.

Hopefully I see y'all in the morrow. If not, oh well, GGs.

I'm now fine with ending the Day.

I am comfortable ending the day.

From my PoV, Tevish's had to be Santa. Which means that him clearing KoD from his perspective cleared KoD from mine as well.

Ah another fine day of -- oh, you guys posted a lot.

Time for my morning reading.

I rescind my desire to end the day early.

This should be pretty simple.

N1

CL - Nice on Zinger
Kod - Nice on KoD
Zinger - Naughty on CL
Aaarrgh - Naughty on CL
Tevish - Naughty on KoD

I'm town so zinger and aaarrgh are insane paranoid and tevish is sane with a naughty on KoD who is lying about being nice.


Right?

You go champ.

Yeah, CL, if we assume KoD is Krampus and he fudges Tevishs night 1 result that does make sense.

Actually it doesn't.

As posted, it makes sense without considering anything else.

Enjoy the read.






Zinger


It bears repeating that Arrgh's result on me could be compromised since he targeted me. I don't know why you keep glancing over that. After all, with CL being the assumed Krampus in this scenario, then you have to accept that I'm not lying here about my result being twisted. A possibility of me having a tampered result on myself could also mean that others with a result on me could have been tampered with as well. That is, Arrgh's Nice result on me could be Naughty as well.

If that's the case, then Arrgh would be Paranoid as that explains the Nice result on me. It would follow that due to being Paranoid, you (Zinger) would be Sane while I would still be Paranoid (Sane wouldn't fit since CL is the assumed Krampus still).

If that's not the case, that Arrgh's result on me was not tampered with, then it would be the above scenario (which is constrained by its limits).

Again, the reason this bears repeating is because any scenario where you assume someone other than me to be Krampus, then you must take me at my words for what has occurred.



You're asserting, here, that the ability to cause shenanigans was singular, and that I used it on Tevish to alter his result.

Cool assumption in order to keep me in the PoE as I said before.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Vote: KoD


This will be important going forward.

You will see me die, and you will see me come up as Santa. I have spoken truthfully about my results, and you can take me at my word (upon my death) that the shenanigans occurred with my result (and possibly Arrgh's Nice result on me).

Currently:

- CL only has a Nice result on Zinger. This means he could be Sane or Naive.

- Tevish has a Naughty result on me (first) and himself (second). This means he has to be Paranoid (given my perspective).

- Zinger only has a Naughty result on CL. This means he could be Paranoid or Insane.

- Arrgh has a Naughty result on CL and a Nice result on me (second result). Depending on what Krampus's ability does, Arrgh could have an accurate result or a tampered result on me. This means he could be Sane, Insane, or Paranoid.

- As for myself, I have a Nice and Naughty result on myself (the Naughty result is the one in question).


The Krampus ability was used on me. Of that I have no doubt. The only question is was it the first result or the second result.

Concerning my first result:

No, the ability wasn't used on me then. I already demonstrated how that scenario plays out, but I'll do so again. However, I will take great care to speculate properly.

The ability flips my first result.
This means my first result would be Naughty. That also means CL is the only one with a true Nice result and is either Sane or Naive. As for the rest of us, Tevish has a Naught on me (not considering his ability altered)*, Zinger and Arrgh have a Naughty on CL. There are too many Naughty results on the field. Even if you assume CL is Naive, and either Arrgh or Zinger are Paranoid, that doesn't explain Tevish's later Naughty result on himself nor my second Naughty result on myself. In other words, it is impossible that my first result was flipped.

* If Tevish's first result on me was flipped as well, then he'd have Nice on me and Naughty on himself which means he is Insane, but that implies I am Krampus which is not true at all. Thus Tevish's first result on me was not flipped. Furthermore, if you consider me Krampus, then Tevish would be Insane here, yet Arrgh's second result (Nice on me) would imply that Arrgh is the Insane one . That's impossible though, thus Tevish's first result on me could not have been flipped.

[spoiler]This section seems messy due to the assumptions being made. Granted it is from my perspective, but since I attempt to mention myself as Krampus here to show the absurdity, it creates confusion I think. To detail that further:

Assume I am Krampus, and Tevish's first result was flipped.
This means Tevish is Insane (Nice result on me that was flipped, and Naughty result on himself). CL would then be N,S. Zinger would be P. Arrgh then becomes an issue because he gets a Nice result on me later which means he'd be Insane. So I can't be Krampus if Tevish's first result was flipped.

Assume I am Krampus, and Tevish's first result was not flipped.
This means Tevish is either Insane or Paranoid. However, due to Arrgh's Nice result on me later, Arrgh would be Insane and Tevish is auto Paranoid. This presents another problem as Zinger, with a Naughty on CL, can't be Paranoid (taken by Tevish) or Insane (taken by Arrgh). Thus I can't be Krampus if Tevish's first result was not flipped.

Therefore, I can't be Krampus wrt to Tevish's first result being tampered or not.

There, I think I'm happy with that now.

The implication of this, in so far as whether or not Tevish's first result was tampered with, shows that I could not be Krampus in either circumstance. Thus, I speak truthfully about my own result being tampered.[/spoiler]



The ability flips my second result.
This means my second result would be Nice. That means I could be Sane or Naive just like CL. That then leaves Paranoid and Insane to be distributed to two of Arrgh, Tevish, and Zinger. Assuming no flips to their results at all, Tevish would have to be Paranoid, and Arrgh* would have to be Sane which directly implies CL as the Krampus (Arrgh can't be Insane as that implies I am Krampus which is an error). However, due to Insane being the only viable option for Zinger, CL cannot be Krampus, thus there is an error. The error is in the combination of sanities.

Rather than Tevish being Paranoid, Tevish can be Insane. That leaves Zinger as Naive, Arrgh as Sane, and myself as Naive, and CL would be Krampus.

*Arrgh's result on me could have been flipped potentially. If it was, then he'd have two Naughty results (CL and myself) which means Arrgh is either Insane or Paranoid. Tevish, as well, would have to be Insane or Paranoid. CL could still be Naive or Sane (just like me), and Zinger would be either Insane or Paranoid.

Since only two of the three can be a Santa, one of Arrgh, Tevish, or Zinger would be Krampus under this set of circumstances (those being that my second result was flipped and Arrgh's result on me was flipped).

Arrgh as Krampus: CL as N,S. KoD as N,S. Tevish as I,P. Zinger as I,P. Those combinations work and mean Arrgh could be Krampus under this set of circumstances.

Tevish as Krampus: CL as N,S. KoD as N,S. Arrgh as I,P. Zinger as I,P. Those combinations work and mean Tevish could be Krampus under this set of circumstances. (Due note, in case you forgot this far in reading, that we're considering Arrgh's result on me as switched.)

Zinger as Krampus: CL as N,I. KoD as N,S. Arrgh as I,P. Tevish as I,P. CL would have to be N, and I would have to be S so that Arrgh and Tevish could share some combination of I,P. Thus, Zinger could be Krampus here.



Thus far I've shown that my first result was not tampered with. With respect to my second result being tampered with, it presents several scenarios.

In a scenario where Arrgh, as a Santa, does not have his result on me tampered with, then CL is auto Krampus.

In a scenario where Arrgh's result on me is tampered with, then Tevish or Zinger can be Krampus.

Likewise, a scenario exists where Arrgh could be Krampus with either CL or myself being a combination of N,S and Tevish or Zinger being a combination of I,P.



I'm already sure Krampus didn't mess with results the first night, so you can take your first round of results at face value and everyone else except Arrgh and I can take their second round of results at face value. This means: CL is either N,S. I am either N,S. Arrgh is either I,P. Tevish is I,P. Zinger is eitehr I,P.

Based off of that (the fact that three ppl share I,P as their possible sanity) I am comfortable saying CL is not Krampus. Furthermore, I am more confident in Arrgh not being Krampus as well given his posting. Ultimately I am confident that either Zinger or Tevish is Krampus. Of the two, I would lean more towards Zinger as his posts have been aimed more at helping to keep the PoE larger as opposed to trying to shrink it without complicating the process beyond assuming a Krampus (I'm talking about how he's assuming a Krampus AND assuming a Krampus ability like he's tried doing with Tevish's result concerning me).


Now, if Zinger is Krampus, then he will know for sure that Tevish is Paranoid and Arrgh is Insane (since he'd know what the Krampus ability is). I'd assume, in this circumstance, that Arrgh would be the one killed since that's a for sure hit on a sanity that can sus him out. Between CL and myself, a Zinger Krampus would not know which of us is Sane/Naive. That means there is a 50/50 shot at CL nailing -- no. CL can't be Sane as he got Nice on Zinger. I'd be the Sane one killing myself with this vote whereas CL would be Naive. Eh, I'm ok with that. It just means that, in the event Zinger is Krampus, Arrgh should commit to targeting Zinger.

Now if Tevish is Krampus, he won't know which of CL and myself is the Sane one. Likewise, he shouldn't know which of Zinger or Arrgh is the Insane one, unless he knows that Arrgh's result wasn't tampered with (which doesn't make sense since that would mean I'd be Krampus -- so yeah, he shouldnt' know). In this circumstance, CL would be better off targeting Tevish.

Now if Arrgh is Krampus, he wouldn't know know which of CL or I is the Sane one. Likewise, he wouldn't know if Tevish or Zinger is the Insane one (pretty sure that's right). Zinger could target Arrgh along with Tevish.


Yeah, that looks about right.



We got nothing but time now to chat.

KoD can you unvote yourself at least until I have had time to digest your massive post? Please?

Actually, on second thought, I guess there is no threat of a hammering, given Krampus is only one of us. So I suppose it doesn't hurt to leave your vote where it is.

Still stresses me out though...

You're Krampus.

Oh, is that the TL;DR?

Sure.

There are a few spots where I miss out on correctly attributing Tevish with the Insane sanity.

I think there is at least one spot where I incorrectly assume that a Zinger Krampus would know if Arrgh is Insane or not.

I am deeply mistrustful of Aaarrrgh right now. Seems to be jumping to all kinds of conclusions.

I am deeply uncomfortable with lynching before LyLo in Dethy. We've seen poison before in Krampus powers (Xmas Dethy 2). If there's poison out we just lose.