My money is on KoD.

I don't think we can metagame this without falling into a very deep wifom hole.

A brief Cost-Benefit Analysis on Lynching Today

If we No Lynch Today: We continue the strategy we decided on D1, getting as narrow a field as possible; D3, any townie would have a 50/50 chance to pick scum at random (3-2, but they would exempt themselves so 2-2 for voting). On the other hand, given the variant nature of the game, we give Scum another round to set up, potentially building a strong field that makes them difficult to vote into oblivion

If we Lynch Today: We gamble it all with worse technical odds. On the other hand, the "board state" is likely to not go too crazy since everybody's got only two mana.

To that end, I feel like if we're relatively sure (or "as sure as we're going to be") that it's KoD, we should seriously consider pulling the trigger today, based primarily on the fact that a) he currently has no board to block votes and b) his submitted deck is a storm deck, suggesting that he might become radically more powerful when he's set up and able to blow multiple spells.

I also have something of a design theory. KoD's submitted deck, as linked in the first post, has no creatures, a trait it shares with Rag's 60 Islands. It doesn't even have a main deck way to generate tokens unless I'm a big derp who didn't see it in the list, with a single March of the Multitiudes SB. In essence, both those players might, by the nature of what they handed in compared to the voting mechanic, be without a conventional vote. Now, we noted on D1 that with a 5-2 start and traditional NK, this game seemed a little strongly scum-side; that was why I (among others) made a fool of myself guessing about whether or not there even would be a conventional NK. So what if the alignment assignment wasn't random, but rather dictated by game balance. Instead of nerfing Maf at the NK, perhaps Zinger nerfed Maf by selecting players who would be deprived of common voting to be scum?

I wouldn't bet the game on that alone, but the Amber kill is sus too, so I thought it would be worth mentioning.

i don't actually think KoD killed amber

he could have but i'm not reading into that one way or the other, i was just kidding around with my initial reaction because i thought it was amusing that amber died N1 again.

i would guess amber was killed because scum didn't like the way her deck and board looked

I've said before that I'm able to vote (with some restrictions i won't elaborate on) and will reiterate that now. "

I made a mistake on the math day 1 probably. We're currently 2v4. If we mislynch today we'll be 2v2, which means a loss. If we had lynched yesterday we'd be 2v3 today which would still mean a loss, but we would have gotten two shots at scum instead of one. If we lynch today we have 2/6 chance of hitting scum statistically and if we lynch tomorrow its 2/5. No-lynching is thus better in a vacuum from this position.

considering tomorrow will either by LyLo or game over, its potentially worth mass claiming today.

That is an interesting theory, but I'm absolutely not betting the game on it. Hopefully someone will getting some info through abilities to help us.

My abilities do very little at this point, and will in fact do nothing unless I both vote someone today and draw the exact right card tomorrow. And even then it will not necessarily do anything. It is a very narrow ability which could be very powerful if a lot of difficult restrictions are met. So don't count on anything super useful coming out of that, unfortunately.

That being said, I don't think we should claim everything (it is for instance possible that I could have a card which does something useful outside of the life token mechanic). Specifically, if you have info which clears another player, it might be better to let it sit until tomorrow and hope you both survive rather than give scum a perfect target.

I'm bothered by Rag's approach on me/Amber. I feel like Rag is intentionally not focusing me despite what happened previously (arguments and all) and the situation being more or less similar now.

Tevish's approach seems like what I'd expect after he saw what went on last game. The only exception is that while I do see him fleshing ideas out, his idea srt to me seems more like a sales pitch if you will. He's definitely not pushing; however, the suggestion is there.

Amber being killed again certainly could have had more to do with her ability to generate creatures to vote with. Maybe. I say maybe because BlueJay, through just one hydra, can get creatures on board certainly (with the limit being on mana). Aside from Amber's potential passive to bring the Phoenix out, its not like she'd be more of a threat with ***one*** vote through that.

Essentially, I'm having a rough time justifying that Amber's death was for anything other than framing me. Small game, after all, and it begs a serious question.

Anyway, given my own perspective here, I'd have to say Tevish doesn't sit well with me based on what I said earlier. I am paranoid about Rag, but it's not so strong that I'd use the only chance at hitting scum on her.

The other possible contender would be BlueJay perhaps. Sitting there saying short, sweet words to make the point "KoD did it, lynch him."

CL will forever be out there in left field for me.

Hi Arrgh.

Hi KoD! If you are scum again I will be upset. Anyway, Rag changing her view on you/Amber is not surprising, although it's metagaming. You had your game where you shot Amber. Are you enough of a jerk to do it twice in a row? Possibly, but it does seem less likely than last game.

i was wrong about you last time

I'd like to think i can learn from my mistakes

Everybody only has one vote per the rules, despite how many creatures they have on the board. But a creatures power might be motivating factors in nk decisions. If town gets down a creature tougher than scum can play, scum's vote is essentially shut down on that player.

Votecount 2.2

None of y'all is voting again.

Creatures in play: Alela, Artful Provocateur, Beloved Princess, Fblthp, the Lost, Feral Hydra, Linden, the Steadfast Queen

having lots of creatures makes you unlynchable though, effectively

Depends on their power level. If you have a swarm of one power linden can burn through the entire stack since it has vigilance. Also flying. Lynches in this game will be a game onto themselves.

@Rag:

You were right about me for all the wrong reasons. Which is why I find it curious now since conditions are relatively the same.

@Arrgh:

WIFOM is beautiful, no?

right, last time i sussed you because i thought you'd kill a lurker and that amber was the lurker. This time around amber wasn't particularly lurky (i think they were one of the higher content posters?) and beyond that i was wrong about you killing a lurker and so the whole response doesn't work anyways.

i still don't think amber dying is telling because you've had lots of opportunities in the past to shoot amber that you've passed on. I have no real way to differentiate those situations from the ones where you do shoot amber.

Why is Amber's creature still in play?

Is it? I thought Amber had the Narcomoeba?

Oh right! Sorry, got confused.

Votecount 2.3

None of y'all is voting again. The deadline is tomorrow at noon EST.

Creatures in play: Alela, Artful Provocateur, Beloved Princess, Fblthp, the Lost, Feral Hydra, Linden, the Steadfast Queen

We are about 24 hours until deadline. What's the consensus on lynching vs not lynching? Let's sound off.

I'm fine not lynching. I would not mind voting just in case the life token mechanic becomes relevant, but I'm fine leaving it as well.