Conclusion:

First and foremost, a disclaimer.

As I mentioned earlier before embarking on this, there is a small and big problem. This concerns the big problem. Despite going through these scenarios, you (anyone, but probably Tevish since he's not going to the trouble of actually analyzing anything) can argue a what-if a result was affected at a different point. Truly, we could just play out the scenarios again like I've already done, but ultimately this is something that hinges on what ability the mod intended when we were informed it was similar to years past. If the intent is for the nature of the ability to be unknown, then truly we're playing the game as intended. If not intended, then any clarification would just seal Krampus's fate at this point.


That being said, now for a recap on this reality.

First, Amber can't be Krampus with the stated assumptions going into this. For completeness sake, the assumptions were that Krampus's ability can't be used in conjunction with a kill, Krampus's ability only affected one person's results, and the affected result would have been the first one.

Second, between Naga, Tevish, and myself, the number of valid scenarios is as follows:

1 valid scenario for Naga. 3 valid scenarios for Tevish. 2 valid scenarios for myself.

Truly, as I write this, I am reminded now of what Lilan's Krampus ability was, and that is actually different from the reality that I just went through. Her ability would create another reality to be explored (if you truly believe that her ability is the one in use here), and that ability was to place coal on one of the Santas causing any result on them to be the opposite. For context, I believe she used it on herself, but no one investigated her so it went to waste more or less.

Nevertheless, here we are. With numerous scenarios.

At this point, I am going to point out that Occam's Razor will say the simpler possibility is the more likely solution as opposed to these convoluted ones. But hey, pick your poison. I've done enough work at this point.

In the first two realities it is beyond a shadow of doubt that Tevish is the Krampus. In this third reality, due to how the results fell from people targeting who they did, Tevish ended up with more scenarios where he is truly the Krampus compared to the rest of us.

I'm sure if we went through a fourth reality, a similar correlation could be drawn between the likelihood of Tevish being Krampus and the way the picks were done.




But yeah, going forward despite w/e results we get on the next days, my vote is staying on Tevish. There's virtually no way Amber's D3 result will be enlightening by virtue of the fact that she investigated both myself and Tevish. The same goes for Naga. If you two want to reinvestigate again for confirmation, that certainly is an option, but other than that I must rest my case.


Expect me to offer no more posts from here on out as I've more or less beat this reindeer to death, tied it to my sleigh, dragged it through the North Pole many times, then beat it a few more times just because.



Peace.

honestly i'm pretty comfy with voting tevish here

ill wait to see if naga has any input, but if he's on board with it i'm willing to just go for it

You mean like last year when the lump of coal ability debuted but I didn't tell town about it in the OP, merely stating Krampus had an ace up his sleeve similar to previous years...?

Pretty much, yeah.

Bastard is the better description than irresponsible. I was under the impression the ability was known like it was the first two times. Lilan's ability not being known probably helps give Krampus more of an equal chance to win like the Santss.

Course, since we're handling this without that ability being known, than we've got no choice but to exhaust the different realities as best as we can to better understand what happened.

The safest assumption is probably the ability can only be used once.

So that means we could be dealing with the ability having been used with a kill, or a coal being used, or two ppls results being messed with. And possibly something else.

Unvote

I've got a direction to pursue.

I'll tackle the coal ability here in this post. This is the ability that, as I mentioned previously (assuming I am not mistaken), when used on a target it caused the target to appear as the opposite result.

Coal Reality

Alright, let's get to it.

KoD as Krampus:

1A - KoD Used Coal on Himself N0

All the results would flip for everyone except Tevish. So, Arrgh would have gotten Nice, Amber Nice, and Naga Naughty. Tevish's result would be unchanged as Nice on Amber.

This means that Tevish could be NS or SS. Naga could be PS or SS. One of Arrgh or Amber could be IS. Factor in the next results, and we get Amber having Naughty on Tevish which would make her the IS. Tevish has Nice on Arrgh. Since Naga's next result on Tevish (Nice) means Naga must be the SS, then Tevish must be the NS. So IS is Amber, NS is Tevish, and SS is Naga. This leaves PS for Arrgh; however, this cannot be due to Arrgh's Nice result (due to the coal on myself).

Therefore this scenario is invalid.


2A - KoD Used Coal on Amber N0

The only result affected here would be Tevish's which would, instead, be Naughty on Amber. This means Tevish is the SS due to the Naughty result on Amber and the Nice result on Arrgh; however, Amber isn't the assumed Krampus.

Therefore this scenario is invalid.


3A - Miscellaneous Targets for N0

No one else was investigated N0 (outside of myself and Amber). Thus the stated results would follow the trend of the first reality wherein no abilities were assumed to be used (that is, all results were taken at face value). The breakdown of those scenarios are there to be read in there. The only problem, which will be addressed next, is if the coal ability was used at the same time Arrgh was killed (N1).

4A - KoD Used Coal on Tevish N1

This is the only option that matters here since everyone targeted Tevish, and Arrgh flipped as a Santa. So going forward, Tevish would be established as NS or SS due to the two nice results (Amber/Arrgh).

The first round of results, taken at face value due to the current assumption, is Amber's Naughty on KoD, Arrgh's Naughty on KoD, and Naga's Nice on KoD. The second round of results, altered by the Coal and so stated accurately here, would be Amber's Nice result on Tevish, Naga's Naughty result on Tevish, and that's it.

So already Tevish has to be NS or SS. Then we have Amber with a Naughty on me and Nice on Tevish which makes her the SS thereby forcing Tevish to be the NS. Finally, Naga had Nice on me, then Nice on Tevish. Since I am the Krampus here, Naga has to be NS which is taken by Tevish. This cannot be.

Therefore this scenario is invalid.

5A - KoD Used Coal on Arrgh N1 (as well as the kill)

This scenario doesn't make sense because that would mean Tevish's Nice result on Arrgh was actually a Naughty result despite having a Nice result on Amber. Therefore Tevish would have to be IS by virtue of the fact Arrgh is a confirmed Santa due to death. The problem is that Amber can't be the Krampus because I am the assumed Krampus.

Therefore this scenario is invalid.


Summary:

The breakdown of the scenario where I am Krampus with the Coal ability doesn't pan out in anyway as the relevant targets N0 for the Coal ability would have been myself or Amber, and the relevant targets for N1 would've been Tevish or Arrgh. As shown, those scenarios where they were Coaled turn out invalid if I am the assumed Krampus.

If anyone else is coaled outside of those options, then all results would be taken at face value which, as I mentioned, would be addressed in the first reality where I worked out that Tevish, ultimately, is the Krampus.

TL;DR: In the reality where the Coal ability is what is being utilized, I cannot be the Krampus ever.

You know, since the ability was similar to previous years, that probably means the restrictions are the same.

Reread my PM from the second Xmas Dethy. There was a horrible mistake which resulted in me being able to use the original miller time ability along with a kill (I killed Zinger and activated miller time which, I think, is different from Imperial Helles).

Checking the first Xmas Dethy PM if I can find it in my folders.

lol Hail_Hydra on Mafia Universe

So yeah, the ability use of the Krampus from the first Xmas Dethy replaces a kill if it is not N0 (obv N0 no kill can be made).

Ok so yeah, that's the consistent thing between the abilities each Xmas. They cannot be used in conjunction with a kill (the ability will replace the kill). So if the ability was used, it had to have been used N0 since a kill was made N1.

The same would be true for Lilan's ability in so much as the ability could be used N0, but would have a kill replaced if used on a later night. If memory serves (and I probably already mentioned this), Lilan used the ability on herself N0, and investigated herself (not that the investigation matters since she was the Krampus. No one investigated her to the best of my knowledge).

So yeah, there are the guidelines we can work with. The ability can't be used with a kill as it replaces the kill. Whatever the ability is this time around.

I think I'm pretty comfortable revoting for Tevish too, Amber.

Thanks for all the legwork, KoD.

Vote: Tevish

screw it let's do it

vote: tevish

I'm not comfortable until I've exhausted what I can.

It's true that we dont know what ability was given to the Krampus. That's why beating these results to death helps to be as informed as possible.

Dont get me wrong. I still think Tevish is, more than likely, Jrampus; however, I'd rather make sure of it by going through these realities and scenarios.

I guess what I'm saying is that a third day of results wouldn't hurt provided we investigated targets to help confirm our sanities for sure.

Take myself for instance. I'd probably investigate myself to make sure I truly was Nice. Likewise, you guys could investigate me to confirm your own sanities due to having investigated me on N0. Or you could investigate yourselves to see what you get (seeing as how Tevish and myself seen to be the important targets here).

Besides, I still need to work through some scenarios when I'm not tired from dri king.

Unfortunately time is up. Thanks to big balls Naga Krampus has been sent to time out. No more eating naughty children for you this year old chap.

Final Count:

Tevish: Naga, Amber
No Lynch: Tevish

Not voting: KoD

Not bad for a guy who slept through his night 1 investigation and lied about his results. XD

w-wait hold up
i
i
wow

Wait, what?

You are my idol now, naga.

I'd like to thank KoD for being right for all the wrong reasons for d1 and most of day 2, but the analysis towards the end of d2 was honestly pretty good.

FYI my ability was basically nothing like, well, anything. Personally I'd say my main CoD was the magical groupthink investigations. If Naga had looked into anyone but me d2 we would have seen a very different world unless there were more lies involved.

yeah we had like everyone investigate 2 people that entire game which was pretty wild

what was your ability though?

That was the one he lied about. (N0 vs N1). Basically the last day came down mostly to how he was going to play missing his night action and if town would let day 3 happen.

H.O.L.Y. Krampus.

That explains why we waited so long for him to claim his result.

Like

I could have been hit by a bus driven by Naga while Tevish laughed at the back of it and Amber waved at my track-marked body.

It was all part of the plan, everyone.

Naga, you are an absolute madman, and I love you!