It'll take us a few episodes to get to the part where we find out what happened.

Next time on Gintama Mafia Z!

End of Day Three

Votes:

Fruit: GobO_Scarlet, Niklor, Garren_Windspear, Ragnarokio (4)
GobO_Scarlet: Zinger2099 (1)
Niklor: KoD (1)
No vote: Fruit, NeoSilk (2)

You surround Fruit. It's got to be him, it's always the normal people who are the most messed up. You break his glasses, ending his life.

He was:



Night Three



Living Players: 7

1. Niklor
2. Ragnarokio
4. NeoSilk
5. KoD
6. GobO_Scarlet
7. Zinger2099
11. Garren_Windspear

Dead Players: 5

8. True_Believer
10. squinty_eyes
3. 15377
9. Silly
12. Fruit

It is now night. Deadline is 3 days from this post. PM me your abilities.

Tonight, a concert is going on. You are free to post.

Called it.

Fruit was Town.

We are free to post at Night. This allows us to rethink certain plays (ie. Neo's aility) if we so choose.

There are 7 living players left. 2 of them are scum. The most logical pairing, IMO is Scarlet and KoD, BUT that is obviously up for conjecture and a lot of people believe otherwise. FAIR ENOUGH. Let's look at things from a different angle.

If Scarlet and KoD are the scum team it forces them to protect Scarlet and kill Neo, so Neo would be the only death toNight.

If Scarlet and KoD are NOT the scum team, then the true scum team would probably abstain from killing anyone so that it appears as though Scarlet and KoD ARE the scum team. If they choose instead to kill a player then they will confirm for the rest of us that Scarlet and KoD are Town, which means if I am alive on Day 4 I should be able to figure out exactly who the scum team is if there are two deaths. This is why the scum team, if not Scar and KoD, will choose most likely to do nothing in order to throw wifom into the game (also why we should have lynched scarlet in Day 3, but alas, nobody but Rag would listen to reason on that one).

So, I think it is safe to say Neo will probably die toNight and likely be the only one to die. But does he die alone because Scar and KoD are scum or because they are NOT scum? We don't know. And that lack of knowing could quite possibly cost us the game because tomorrow would be LyLo.

Are you still following my logic train? Good.

We know that a scum team of Scar and KoD will result in only Neo's death toNight and no other (most likely). We also know a scum team of anyone other than Scar and KoD will likely result in the same thing (most likely). This means we actually gain NO information from Neo's sacrifice other than confirmation of his own alignment at the cost of his vote tomorrow.

But what if Neo abstains from using his ability. This FORCES the scum team to kill someone if they want tomorrow to be LyLo. Most likely they'll just kill Neo, resulting in exactly the same situation as if Neo DID use his ability. We really should have lynched Scar on Day 3.

But what if Neo uses his ability on someone else? Currently, the way I see it, the scum team is either Scar and KoD or two of Niklor/Garren/NeoSilk. I am willing to bet on NeoSilk being town, simply because his ability which he volunteered to use to Town's will, is totally verifiable (ie, if it doesn't flip the way he advertised for us to expect, then we know he is lying scum). Here's the thing: most likely, if Neo uses his ability on scar or uses it on nobody at all, then we're in a LyLo situation on day 4 where we have to pick between a scum team of scar and kod or niklor and garren. A scum-advantaged 50/50 choice rife with wifom that I really don't want to have to make.

However, if NeoSilk targets Niklor or Garren.... And doesn't advertise which one he is going after (just in CASE the scum team is Scar/KoD and they can protect against his kill), then day 4 should roll around with the two deaths that we need to be able to exactly figure out who the scum team is and win.

There is a lot of assumptions being made here, I'm not 100% comfortable with this option, but given what we are left with I see little other choice.

@Neo, I highly recommend you target Niklor or Garren with your ability toNight (and don't tell us which one).

Anyone care to weigh in on this? I'm guessing KoD will come around and tell me why my logic is terrible for some reason, but for the REST OF YOU, please read my post thoroughly and you will understand why any other choice made toNight will result in us going into LyLo with a very tense 50/50 choice to make.

Too many if's. Neo should just stick to his word. Likewise, I am keeping my promise of not targeting anyone but myself tonight.

Besides, mafia can WIFOM the situation any way they see fit as has been demonstrated with your post of if's.

Part of Neo using his ability, instead of abstaining from using it, is to clear himself as possible scum. Him targeting anyone else other than Scar just leaves the possibility on the table that Scar and I are scum and not confirmed in any way (something you argued as a point yesterday).

No matter the course it takes, one death tonight is better than two (ie. having Neo target someone else and scum killing that particular person).

Neo targeting scar does not confirm you and scar. All it does is create the scenarios I've described with too many ifs. If Neo follows my current plan we eliminate some of those ifs to maybe have a chance at winning come Day 4.

Your plan is foolhardy and will hand control of the game to the scum team.

I already addressed that.

One death is better than two. Leaving it up to Neo, who we don't know is town or mafia, to choose between Niklor or Garen opens up the possibility of Scum Neo NKing whoever he wants and claiming tomorrow he decided to go with a no hit.

Accountability is the word to describe Neo and his ability. He must be held accountable for his choice, and the only way for us to do that is to hold him to his word of who he intended to target.

I'm sure you've heard of the phrase, "Trust, but verify," yes? Yesterday you were gun ho about making sure Fruit was the one lynched and that Scar be targeted in the event Fruit came up town. This was the case despite my argument about trusting Fruit. What was it you said? There was nothing to verify Fruit's claims or something like that?

Nevermind that you've done a complete 180 on targeting Scar. The entire point of this is that Neo is not cleared even with volunteering to take directions who to target. Volunteering doesn't matter if he's not made to follow through with it like you are suggesting. This is why Neo should stick to his word. If he's town, he ends up dead and scum WIFOM the situation with Scar and I. If he doesn't target Scar, mafia can still WIFOM the situation by no hitting or hitting Neo or who knows what.

And if Neo is scum? Then worse can happen as I briefly touched upon when I spoke of accountability.

So no, deviating from the intended, public plan is bad, and pushing such an agenda just makes you scummy (granted I view you as scum anyway).

Neo is dead tonight no matter what. If Neo is alive tomorrow and he did not hit scum it is because he lied and is scum. What you have thus said about holding Neo accountable is irrelevant. He will be held accountable by way of seeing who dies tonight.

Of course I've done a complete 180 because I was seriously hoping that fruit would flip scum. He did not, making you now my number 1 scum candidate. But we aren't going to play that game. We all know I think you're scum. I don't want to muddle the waters by arguing about that irrelevant topic. I want to get hard facts into the hands of whichever remaining town players are alive tomorrow so that we can win. If Neo targets scar tonight, it confirms nothing and makes us all confused going into Day 4.

And here's the thing. If neo targets scar and neo dies as we expect him to, then I'll be voting you tomorrow. I'd wager Rag would as well. And here's the other thing, if I am wrong and you and scar are town then the scum team (Nik and garren) can easily pile their votes onto my bandwagon against you and town loses.

No. The only way town has a chance at winning now is if neo narrows down his choices to two (I recommend garren and niklor) and does not reveal his target so the scum team can't stop him.

Yes this is banking on the theory that neo is town. If neo is not town, however, then failure to deliver us a dead scum tomorrow will prove this (if he still lives) and we vote neo and town wins.

The plan isn't as fuller oof as lynching Scarlet day 3 would have been, but it's the best chance town has. Not that I expect you to care about towns best chances.

There's no way you can possibly know that. Neo has done nothing (remember this argument?) to prove he is town. All he has done is claim an ability. An ability which can be planned around since everything is out in the open.

That being said, it is not irrelevant. When I gave that particular scenario it went on the idea that Neo could easily claim that he chose not to kill. If he chose not to kill, then he can't die because he won't have targeted town. So he isn't lying. And given how you have 180'ed, I see no reason to open this up as a possibility because there is nothing stopping you from arguing such a point. Just like how there is nothing stopping you from arguing that tomorrow Scar and I are still likely to be scum because we have nothing to clear us.

That being said, no hard facts can be gained if Neo is scum. Neo needs to commit to a target to clear himself. Anything less leaves open the possibility of doubt, and I want no doubt where it concerns Neo.

Also, I am in serious doubt that Niklor is scum as you like to maintain. He's allowed town to talk at night which is helpful to town. Something he definitely didn't need to do.

Currently if I had to pick scum it would be you for sure with possibly Neo or Garen and an outside chance of Niklor. Just depends on what happens tonight.

going to need to gather all the claims and think through logically what they all imply which is a pain but i guess i'll get on it

There is no doubt. The scum team is either kod&scar or two of nik/neo/garren. Of that I am sure.

My money is on KoD and Scar.

It'll be so frustrating if we lose because I couldn't convince the town to kill the obvious person who lied to protect his scumbuddy from a Lynch.

The reason KoD is so opposed to my plan is because he knows if neo goes through with it that I will have proof that he is scum.

As of now, I've not heard anything to convince me not to use my ability on Scar. Still open to ideas, but it's going to take something pretty convincing.

What does town gain by you using your ability on scar?

If Scar and KoD are scum you die and we learn nothing (other than your alignment).
If Scar and KoD are not scum, you die and we learn nothing (other than your alignment).
Unless you are scum, targeting scar will yield us no further info.

We have 7 players right now.
Mafia will definitely kill. So we'll be in lylo either way.

One kill = 6-person Lylo.
Two kills = 5 person Lylo.

It really does not matter anymore.

@Scar why will Mafia definitely kill? Neo is targeting someone tonight and assuming he doesn't hit scum he will die. This we know. We also know that if you and KoD are the scum team and Neo is bent on targeting you then your only play is to protect you (KoD's ability) and kill Neo so that it appears as though you are town. If you are not the scum team then the best play for scum is to abstain from killing to make it look like you are the scum team for the aforementioned reasons.

If me/KoD is scum, we will kill Neo to make it seem like I'm town.
If me/KoD is not scum, they can not guess that Neo will actually use his role on me and will kill someone. They want to get to lylo. So the need a death.

If Scar and KoD are scum, then Scar dies, as do I, and you get both of our alignments.
If they are not scum, then I die, and you learn that they are both town.

You've really not been paying attention. KoD has claimed a protective power, of that I have little reason to doubt him on. If Scar and KOD are scum, they will protect scar and kill you to make it look as though you died because scar is town.