Tevish's analysis doesn't make sense to me. It flags me as possibly paranoid secret times even though I got a Nice result today.

I was looking at a summary and copying my yesterday install. In that case

CL is Krampus
Aaarrrgh is SANE.
Zinger is PARANOID
I must be INSANE
KoD must be NAIVE
This is a big fat ??? because of KoD getting different results with himself; his core sanity might be naive, since he's obviously had a trickery inflicted on him

My core sanity might be Naive or it might be Sane.

Just depends on what other results we get.

There's the possibility that the trickery was N0 to consider as well. I think we need another round to try to crack this, see what lines up and what fails to.

@Arrgh:

Tevish's summary makes sense if you assume that you targeting me may have altered your result as well.

So in essence despite a Nice result on me, you could (possibly) be Paranoid/Insane (because targeting me would have flipped your true result).

Course, since we don't know if targeting me has an effect similar to lump of coal in some capacity, there is also the possibility your result was not altered and it is true (in which case you'd be Sane and CL would have to be Krampus which would leave Tevish and Zinger to be some combo of Paranoid/Insane and I would be Naive).


That's pretty much all there is. Just entertaining what is possible.


Going into tomorrow, I do think I will end up dead since the possibility of me being Krampus is nil at this point. I said this because if you work through the logic there, you should come to the conclusion that, based on what is known, I can't be Krampus barring some unknown effect to any person's results (and opening that door would be no different than opening it on someone else).

Rather, what you should be looking at is what is more likely, and by my count there are three specific scenarios where one of Arrgh, Zinger, or CL could be Krampus while the scenario for Tevish being Krampus is much broader wrt to the combination of sanities.



The main thing you should take away from today is that, assuming you trust my words which there should be no reason not to once I'm dead, I will have been honest about the switch that occurred.

I briefly touched on the ability being used the first night, and truly that would only alter, potentially, my and your results.

That is, I'd be Insane and you'd be Sane. Problem there, though, is that when you investigated yourself the second night you got Naughty so, at the very least, you can't be Sane (and likely your result was not tampered with the first night).

Course, continuing with that theme, if my result was the only one tampered with the first night (a given following what was mentioned about Tevish above), then Arrgh's result must be accurate on me which means CL must be Krampus (ie. Arrgh is Sane).

With Arrgh being Sane and myself being Insane, Tevish, by virtue of not being able to be Sane, has to be Paranoid. That leaves Zinger as the oddball out due to his Naughty result on CL.

Thus, it isn't likely that shenanigans happened the first night (N0).

Yeah, if KoD hadn't put it his weird result, CL would have been 100% guilty in my eyes. So unless KoD is trying to go 300 IQ here, he's innocent.

People keep saying KoD is cleared (mostly himself but it is being paroted), and that's just really rubbing me the wrong way.

If KoD is Krampus
Argh could be insane
Tevish could be paranoid
I could be sane or naive (and CL has a lump of coal or I have a fudge sanity or something)
CL could be Sane or Naive

This all logically makes sense if you accept CL returns Naughty to everyone for some reason.

I'm just not as comfortable as the rest of you are at putting KoD in a nice shiny red sleigh and writing him off as guaranteed Santa. Like all it takes for KoD to be Krampus is shenanigans re:my CL results.

My morning is a jumble but I will do a full breakdown later this afternoon. When's deadline?

Oh still have loads of time okay.

Be back later

Does CL returning Naughty only work on the last batch of results? How do you reconcile the first round of results where you got Naughty on CL?

You truly don't see the issue with what you're doing. You're quite literally looking for reasons to keep me in the PoE despite having to make more assumptions beyond "this person is krampus".

You do realize that makes it more unlikely, right?

Doesn't matter. Fact remains that without more assumptions to complicated anything, the valid scenarios that exist are Tevish (broadly) and Arrgh, or CL, or Zinger under specific sanities for people.

If you go up in the order of complications due to Zinger's stance, then you can consider me as zkrampus being a possibility but IF AND ONLY IF you assume that Zinger/CL were tampered with in some way that isn't readily apparent outside of just saying so.

My argument for KoD i being Santa is that his result is the only thing preventing CL from looking 100% guilty. Why would scum KoD, after you had already stated that CL was obviously krampus, present the only hard evidence of result tampering?

I still don't see how you get to CL looking 100% guilty, with or without KoD's information. You getting a Naughty on him and a Nice on KoD is not a smoking gun in CL's hands.

If CL is Krampus and Argh presumes he is Sane
Argh must therefore presume I am Paranoid, Tevish is Insane, and KoD is Naive (possibly with a fudged result on Night 1).

This is logically consistent, but it isn't the only possible logically consistent explanation for the results, therefore it isn't a 100% guaranteed guilty verdict.

Why would a Krampus KoD come forward with information that might make you doubt yourself? Because Krampus plays the long game. He doesn't just need CL dead, he needs us all dead. And right now the only person who is at any risk of pulling the wool over our eyes as hypothetical Krampus is KoD, which is why we should all examine KoD just a little bit more carefully before we potentially play Krampus' twisted game.

Seriously, you're asking me to prove why KoD could be Krampus, and I don't necessarily think KoD is Krampus, I'm just adimantly against the idea of eliminating KoD as a suspect when all we have is limited information that has undoubtedly been tampered with.

I got to get to work I will be back in a few hours with some more.

Yeah I'm putting this off till tomarrow. We still have time right

I wanna do the work tho

You have until Monday morningish.

Actually, from my perspective, CL would have to be scum in that scenario. If KoD was scum, I would be insane and you and Tevish would then both be paranoid. If anyone else was scum, my results wouldn't make sense. You summed it up yourself (with a small incorrect assumption) here:



And that post was before KoD revealed a weird result and pulled the spotlight onto himself. I don't think he would derail such a clear town vs town scenario when just laying low and letting us tear each other apart was an option. Then again, this is KoD we are talking about, so it's entirely possible he would, but right now he¨s low on my suspect list.

My assumption was that you targeted yourself because targeting yourself is in theory the only way to correctly confirm CL as 100% scum.

You targeted KoD. You don't know KoD's alignment, therefore you don't know your own Sanity, therefore you don't know CL is scum. My incorrect assumption was only incorrect because you led us to believe you had a 100% guilty verdict on someone, which you don't.

Assuming your perspective:
Argh is Santa (with a Naughty check on CL and a Nice check on KoD)

If CL is Krampus, then, barring shenanigans, Argh must be Sane
I must be Paranoid
Tevish must be Insane
and KoD must be Naive
This checks out with your results, BUT

If KoD is Krampus, then, barring shenanigans, Argh must be Insane
I must still be Paranoid
Tevish must be Sane
CL must be Naive
This doesn't check out given Tevish got a Naughty on himself, BUT

this is all barring shenanigans, and we all pretty firmly believe shenanigans were had at this point given Night 1's lack of kill. KoD is the one claiming the shenanigans were targeting him, but if he's Krampus that assertion is bogus and he could have easily messed with Tevish's result, making the KoD is Krampus still possible.

But in any event, regardless of what you think on the KoD sitch, I still don't see how you're 100% certain you thought you knew CL was Krampus.

My entire point is that there is no reason for KoD to make himself out to be the shenanigans target, especially since he committed to that before I revealed that I had targeted him. He gave us a lot more information than he needed to, when you had already stated that you were certain that it had to be me or CL.

And no, because Tevish had already cleared KoD before I claimed, and CL/KoD were my only options due to my two different results, I was 100% sure (as always, barring shenanigans. Which I also said in my claim post). What is so hard to understand about that?