Hey guys I really appreciated the prod you got me for Christmas, it was really thoughtful.

Tevish is on the nice list this year.

Aren't we missing Aaarrgh's investigation too?

Aaarrrgh's dead.

Also, Shenanigans have occurred. I am, of course, absolutely certain of that at this point, since I know my own alignment.

UNVOTE; VOTE: No Lynch. I propose passing to d3. KoD will naturally object to this.

I'm dumb.

KoD's argument seems reasonable to me.

Vote: Tevish

So I took the liberty of going back and looking at the previous Christmas Dethy games to see if there was anything that would explain how, where, and why these impossible results would occur -- impossible to me, personally, because I know myself to be a Santa.

I found that in previous Christmas dethy games, the Krampus comes armed. Lilian-Krampus had some super-millerizer ability, and KoD-Krampus had something about inverting results. I admit, I kind of skimmed, but that is what it is.

Big tinfoil hat, neither KoD nor I are Krampus; one of Naga or Amber is and used their ability to generate the scenario we see currently. Both were valid from D1, so they just had to possess some tool that, under the circumstances, could invalidate themselves. Aaarrrgh, the only player truly cleared on D1, was killed.

A mislynch today ends the game. Passing to d3 costs town nothing.

That's all I've got.

ok so from my analysis with naga's info, if kod is krampus, naga must be naive, i'm paranoid, and arrgh and tevish are both sane which is impossible, so arrgh is the sane one and tevish is krampus

so uh
anyone got anything else before i end the game or

If you're not willing to go to d3 based on prior games, just banish me to a shadow realm and hand Krampus the win.

Unvote.

Is Tevish not correct that town loses nothing but gains an additional night of info?

Technically town loses someone.

I'm not even going to bother with asking for trust. Your results speak for themselves.

yeah, i don't think we actually lose anything by taking it to d3
we lose a player but that doesn't really change the outcome of the game
we gain one more night of info, but as for how useful it is i can't say

it's also probably worth noting that krampus does have an unknown trick up their sleeve; we should probably assume that some amount of info is unreliable
i'm kinda down with just lynching tevish and getting it over with since all the evidence we have so far points at him, but having an additional night of info is probably more optimal

so basically the question is do we want to play optimally or just yolo lynch

Unvote

@Tevish and Naga:

Honestly, throughout all of this were you considering the ability Krampus has?

It's been a while kind of since I last used that ability, and I'm not sure if there was a difference between Lilan's and mine from back then.

The inversion had to replace a kill (I think mine maybe had to be used N0, but I could be wrong). In any case, N0 is the only one that would make sense for mixed results since Arrgh was killed last night (it was never allowed to kill and do an inversion on the same night).

That being said, the N0 results are as follows:

KoD: Nice (myself) | Naughty | Naughty (Tevish)
Arrgh: Naughty (KoD) | Nice | dead
Amber: Naughty (KoD) | Nice | Naughty (Tevish)
Naga: Nice (KoD) | Naughty | Nice (Nice)
Tevish: Amber (Nice) | Naughty | Nice (Arrgh)

If results were mixed, that'd put the true value of those results as Naughty, Nice, nice, Naughty, Naughty. I'll put them behind the above results followed by D2 results.

I'll stop here because I need to move somewhere else, and it'll give me a chance to think for a moment before continuing.

I haven't actually left anywhere which sucks. So here is a continuation of the above.




So focusing on just the mixed results for N0 along with the N1 results:
KoD: Naughty, Naughty
Arrgh: Nice
Amber: Nice, Naughty
Naga: Naughty, Nice
Tevish: Naughty, Nice

KoD: Possibly IS or PS.
Arrgh: Possible any of the four santa types.
Amber: Maybe IS or SS.
Naga: Maybe IS or SS.
Tevish: Maybe IS or SS.

For my own sanity (not talking about santa sanity), I'm going to focus on this with myself as a santa so I can make sense of the mixed results.

First, there's too many IS candidates, so I'm likely PS. That'll leave SS, IS, and NS for everyone else.

Second, to make things fit better, due to the amount of potential candidates for IS/SS, Arrgh is likely NS here despite the one results (having him as another candidate for IS/SS is just too much in the sense that obviously there can't be 3 ppl).

and now i leave again yay

So back on track.

Krampus would then be among Tevish, Naga, or Amber with the mixed results (I'm going to keep redering to the possibility of tampered results as mixed results).

Before I go forward, I should note that I cant be Krampus in this reality as I have to be the PS (more than likely as i haven't covered everything yet).

So, back to the three of you. Due to the stated mixed results, each of you is likely to be sane/insane in some combination. So let's go through each of the scenarios for you guys.

Naga as Krampus:

In this scenario, Amber has a nice result on me (as a mixed result) which is true, but a naughty result on Tevish. I cant be Krampus, so Amber must be IS; however, that would mean Tevish is Krampus which cant be since we're assuming Naga is. Therefore, Naga can't be Krampus.

Amber as Krampus:

Tevish has a naughty result on Amber, and a nice result on Arrgh. Tevish is SS here, and Amber is Krampus. Checks out so far. That means Naga is IS with a Naghty result on me (checks out since I'm town) and a nice result on Tevish; however, the nice result on Tevish means Tevish is actually Krampus which doesn't jive with Amber being the Krampus. Therefore, this scenario is invalid, and Amber is not Krampus.

Tevish as Krampus:

Truly this scenario should be the only valid one since the others dont check out, but let's work through just to be sure.

So Naga and Amber are IS/SS in some capacity. Naga's Naughty result on me (with me as a santa) makes him IS. His nice result on Tevish (with Tevish as Krampus) checks out completely.

Amber, then, has to be the SS. She has a nice result on me, and a Naughty result on Tevish. This checks out.

This scenario is the only one that is valid. Therefore, in the case of mixed results, Tevish is Krampus.

Conclusion:

In the case of no tampered results, the Krampus is either Tevish or myself as has been worked over and shown prior to Naga's result being shown. Furthermore, with Naga's nice result, it cements that Tevish must be the Krampus in the reality where the results were not tampered with.

In the reality where results were tampered with (the mixed results) I've just shown that the only plausible scenario is where Tevish is Krampus.

Therefore, Tevish is Krampus regardless of results being mixed or not. No one else can be Krampus due to how the results and resulting scenarios develop.



I rest my case.

Vote: Tevish


@Tevish:

You're more than welcome to prove any of this wrong somehow.

Minor correction:

In the scenario of Naga being Krampus I talked about Amber having to be IS due to a nice result on me (as a mixed result). The correct label should've been SS for Amber in that scenario.

Uhh, no, I did not know Krampus had an ability. I assume this is for the inversion you're talking about, switching results around? Is that only one person per day? Is there a possibility that there is a different ability we don't know about?

I wasn't aware of Krampus abilities until I went looking for answers given the anomaly.

There were at least two different abilities I saw on read-throughs of prior games. KoD posits a particular one which makes me wonder how he's "sure" of what Krampus is capable of this year. FoS, it feels like we're playing real "trust no one and nothing" mafia at this point.

Because right now I'm confused as hell and would like to see the third set of results.

@Naga: What I posted recently is about the results being tampered with via the Krampus ability.

@Tevish:

Easy to sit there and casts stones instead of doing any foot work yourself, eh?

Anyway as I mentioned, I'm not sure, given the time that has passed, on the differences between the ability I had and the one Lilan had. I'm more familiar with what I had because it was me.

That being said, JD stated it was similar, the Krampus ability, to years past. Those were not the only two games played as I was Krampus twice. If, IF, my memory serves correctly, the ability I mentioned is the more standard one (read: common) than whatever Lilian had.

I shouldn't have to say or point this out, but I will. It would be borderline irresponsible/bastard for the mod to have two different abilities from the past and not state which one was to be used in the game now.

If your approach to avoiding your death is to flip the table, that's fine by me as you're already showing a massive difference in how you normally analyze anything even if it is confusing.


@Naga/Amber:

Here's the deal. Tevish wants the day to go to D3 because it'll be easier to convince one person (whichever is the least stubborn) as opposed to convincing two.

Between the three of us, I am much more stubborn and will likely not be killed. The reason being that in the two realities I outlined, neither of you can ever be Krampus whereas in both realities Tevish is either the only one or one of two (the other being me). This means One of you two will die, and Tevish will attempt to convince the remaining that I ha e to be the Kranpus.

Now here is the crux of the issues that is actually a problem in a big way and a small way.

The crux is that Tevish is now arguing, or directing towards this argument, that the two realities I've covered is not the case. Rather, Krampus may have affected only one person's results (if I'm correct on that being the ability Lilan had back then).

Here is why it is small:
It just means more legwork as far as working out the various scenarios where one person's results were affected. This opens up the possibility that any of us could be Krampus (at a surface glance without working out the issues).

Here is why it is big:
I touched on it partially when I mentioned the mod. The issue being that if you want to argue for the sake of arguing, we dont know which ability is being used here compared to past games. I went off the assu.ption it was si.ilar to the two times I was Kra.pus and affected everyone's results. Lillian's would've messed with one person's or something akin to that.

Without mod confirmation, we're essentially left to debate what the mod meant by the ability being similar to those in the past or any such interpretation for any argument over this.




I will say this: if, IF, only one person's results were tampered with, then yes, going to D3 will help as far as trying to determine sanities for the two remaining santas.

Seeing as I dont have anything better to do, I might as well work on those scenarios. I dont expect you guys to do so, and if we're disregarding everything, I might as well get the important info out in the event I get killed since no one else may put in the effort.

Ok, so far there are two realities.

1. Krampus used no ability so all results are as stated.

2. Krampus used an ability that altered the results of everyone for one night.

In both realities Tevish is the only one who can be Krampus. This has been worked out, and exhausted. I consider these realities solved at this point, unless someone wants to argue something in them.

The next adventure is exploring a third set of realities wherein Krampus affected the results of one, and only one, person. I say set because there will be multiple scenarios that can be considered sub realities of this reality (in which one person was affected by Krampus).

Before I begin, an important assumption/note must've made: The only result that can be affected must be the Night 0 result. This is because in the past it was not allowed for Krampus to both kill and affect a Santa's result.

Let's begin.

The Stated Results:

KoD: Nice (self), Naughty (Tevish)
Arrgh: Naughty (KoD), dead
Amber: Naughty (KoD), Naughty (Tevish)
Naga: Nice (KoD), Nice (Tevish)
Tevish: Nice (Amber), Nice (Arrgh)

These are the results as stated.

Let's focus on me being Krampus first.

Quote:

Scenario A: KoD Is Krampus:

A1 - Arrgh's result is affected.

Here we have a nice result, instead, for Arrgh on me. That means Arrgh is either IS or NS.

Next, we have Amber with a Naughty result, as stated, on me. Coupled with her Naughty result on Tevish as well, that means she has to be the PS since I am the Krampus here.

For Naga, we have a Nice result on me as stated as well as a nice result on Tevish. Naga has to be the NS then. This also means Arrgh is the IS. This leaves Twvish as the SS with his two nice results on Amber and Arrgh respectively.

This scenario checks out.

A2 - Amber's result is affected.

Amber's result would, instead, be Nice on me which makes her IS since I am the Krampus. She had a Naughty result later in Tevish which checks out for being IS.

Arrgh, with his Nice result on me, has to be NS.

Naga's Nice result on me means he has to be NS or IS, but those are taken.

This scenario is invalid.

A3 - Naga's result is affected.

Naga's result on me would, instead, be Naughty which would make him SS given his Nice result on Tevish later.

Amber has both Naughty results on myself and Tevish meaning she is PS.

Arrgh has a Nice on me which means he's either IS or NS. Probably IS because Tevish has to be NS with his two nice results.

This scenario checks out.

A4 - Tevish's result is affected.

This would mean Tevish had Naughty on Amber followed by Nice on Arrgh. Since Arrgh is dead, we know the nice result is right, but that means the Naughty result implies Tevish is SS (or even IS)
Either way it doesn't matter because I'm supposed to be Krampus, not Amber or Arrgh who is def a santa.

Therefore this scenario is invalid.

Down the rabbit hole we go.


Scenario B: Tevish is Krampus

B1 - KoD's result is affected.

This means I got Naughty on myself instead. That means I must be PS or IS. Follow this up with a Naughty result on Tevish, and this means I am IS.

Arrgh has a Nice result on me which works as either SS or NS.

Amber has two Naughty results which makes her PS (Naughty on me and Tevish).

Naga has two Nice results (one on me, the other on Tevish). This makes Naga the NS and Arrgh is the SS.

This scenario checks out.


B2 - Arrgh's result is affected.

Arrgh had a Nice result on me which, instead, is really a Naughty result. This means Arrgh must be IS or PS.

I had a Nice result on myself and a Naughty result on Tevish. This makes me SS.

Amber had two Naughty results which makes her the PS.

That leaves Naga as the NS which works. Arrgh is therefore the IS.

This scenario works.


B3 - Amber's result is affected.

Amber had a Naughty result on me first, which would actually be a Nice result. Then she had a Naughty result on Tevish. This makes her the SS.

I had a Nice result on myself followed by a Naughty result on Tevish which would make me the SS which can't be since Amber is the SS.

This scenario is invalid.


B4 - Naga's result is affected.

Naga had a nice result on me which would be Naughty instead. That makes him IS since he ended up with a Nice result on Tevish later.

I'd be SS due to my Nice on self and Naughty on Tevish.

Arrgh would be NS.

Amber would be PS.

This scenario checks out.



* * * * * ** * * ************************************************************************


Scenario C: Naga is the Krampus

C1 - KoD's result is affected.

That means I got Naughty instead on myself. Which means I must be IS or PS due to the Naughty result on Tevish later.

Amber had two Naughty results (on myself and Tevish) which means she must be the PS or IS (so far it works).

Arrgh had Nice on me which makes him SS or NS.

Tevish had Nice on both Amber and Arrgh which makes him SS or NS.

This scenario is valid.


C2 - Arrgh's result is affected.

That means Arrgh got Nice on me making him SS or NS.

Amber had two Naughty results making her IS or NS (on myself and Tevish).

I had Nice on myself and Naughty on Tevish. This means I'm either SS or IS, but this doesn't work as it implies I'm Krampus or Tevish is.

This scenario is invalid.


C3 - Amber's result is affected.

This means Amber got Nice on me instead of Naughty. Then she got Naughty on Tevish. She's either SS or IS, and either one implies that myself or Tevish is the Krampus which can't be.

This scenario is invalid.


C4 - Tevish's result is affected.

Well right off the bat I'm either SS or IS which implies I am Krampus or Tevish is Krampus.

Therefore this scenario is invalid.



**************************************************************************************

Scenario D - Amber is Krampus

D1 - KoD's result is affected.

That means I got Naughty on myself along with the Naughty on Tevish which makes me IS or PS.

Naga has Nice on me and Nice on Tevish which makes him SS or NS.

Arrgh had Nice on me which makes him SS or NS.

Tevish had Nice on Amber and Nice on Arrgh which doesn't make sense since Amber is Krampus. That is, Tevish could be IS but then he'd have Naughty on Arrgh (but doesn't), or he could be NS; however, if he was NS, then both Arrgh and Naga would be left without a proper sanity (as neither can be IS or PS).

Therefore this scenario is invalid.


D2 - Arrgh's result is affected.

Since Arrgh had a nice result on me originally, it will actually be Naughty. That makes him either IS or PS.

Then I have my results which, honestly, means this scenario is invalid because either I'm Krampus due to being IS or Tevish is Krampus due to me being SS.

So, this scenario is invalid.


D3 - Naga's result is affected.

Naga had Nice on me originally, but it would be Naughty instead meaning he is IS. This is because he also had a nice result on Tevish later. Automatically the problem here is that as IS, this makes Tevish the Krampus. Add to that my results would indicate Tevish being Krampus (or me being Krampus, but Amber is the assumed Krampus).

Therefore, this scenario is invalid.


D4 - Tevish's result is affected.

Right at the start this scenario has to be invalid because my results indicate either I'm Krampus or Tevish is Krampus.

So, this scenario is invalid.