Depends on the flavor.

@Monster:

That's because I never made such a promise. After all, I take my promises seriously.

And that particular part was certainly gloating. You see, I've spent some time trying to figure out who cut my pinky off. I made an attempt earlier, during D2, to narrow down who possibly did that. This time around, I built off what I did with new information.

We originally had 13 players and some of them have been solved: Dusky, Ex, Rag, Zinger, and CL. That leaves us 8 people (7 as far as I am concerned).

Day 1 saw Rag focused. A lot. Tevish and Rag made promises to each other, and Tevish was adamant about Rag's town status despite dissenting opinions on the matter from various others (myself included); however, I did not question the genuine nature of both Rag and Tevish. Tevish, for his part, even pushed that he be lynched over Rag despite that not happening. Now, sure, that could have been a gambit on Tevish's part to fool town. I don't think that's the case though. Particularly because I've played with scum Tevish. He's certainly careful in his approach, and that wasn't the indication I got from Tevish defending Rag. Plus Tevish even made a quote of his role with the promise regarding it. Townie points to him. For all intents and purposes, I've eliminated Tevish as possible scum.

After N1 we saw both Dusky and CL killed. Two kills for some reason. Maaaaaybe there was a SK which maaaaay have been Ex -- no way to know. What we do know is that there wasn't an additional death from N2. As for the players, no clue why they were chosen. May indicate some players like Dusky indicating Skystone though I doubt it, and CL indicating a possible player that has no knowledge of how sus CL can be at all times. Either way there isn't much to draw on conclusively.

D2 we lynched Ex flat out. As I said before, he was a safe lynch for both town and mafia. So there isn't much to draw on.

Then, after N2, we see Zinger dead. Why Zinger though? I think I have the answer to that, and I'm fairly certain it lies with my missing pinky. But more on others before we get to that.


That leaves these 8 alive: myself (excluded per my PoV so 7 to consider), Amber, Monster, Skystone, Arrgh, Mongoose, Tevish, and Naga.

Goose - He jumped on Ex despite what Ex was claiming and despite my stated intent to vote Ex and, possibly, sacrifice myself. So either Goose is a risk taking mafia player, or he's town and did so because he wasn't paying attention to the thread or something akin to that. Either way, I'm confident in eliminating him as possible scum.

Tevish - Already covered why I eliminated him as possible scum.

Naga - Naga has been middle of the pack to me, but I've been convinced by him ever since he claimed his role and promised to it. That netted him points as far as I am concerned. Therefore I'm confident in eliminating him as possible scum.


At this point the remaining players (Amber, Skystone, Arrgh, and Monster) are the ones I've been susing. Recently, Amber's claim to her role has made me like her more for being a potential town player as opposed to a mafia aligned player. The main thing I had held against her was mostly how uninvolved she has been though she has been relatively active (like participating in the lynches for Rag and Ex).

Skystone is actually THE elusive one among all of them. Dusky's death has me tripped up, but that is more than likely me knee-jerk reacting to her death and thinking it is him. Other than that, his arguments have been good from what I've seen in this game. If, and this is a big if, I am wrong about Monster, Skystone would be the one I would noose. I'm more confident about Monster though.

Arrgh pinged not only me, but Zinger as well with how he responded yesterday to my offer to make promises with one another at no risk to himself. On top of that, he's been hard stuck on Tevish since D1. That includes through D2. It took making Arrgh promise to vote and stay on Ex to get him off of Tevish. Arrgh is, more than likely in my opinion, a scum player this game.


Finally, Monster.

You're the one that took my pinky you savage.

The latest exchange makes me think much less of Monster. Her targeting claims don't add up. For one, trying to protect me Night one? I was under heavy heat, with some people being quite adamant that the heat would not go away just if rag flipped town. True, if I was being honest I hadn't (and couldn't) break a promise, but still, I wouldn't have been an early call for a maf hit by any standard.

Then there's Zinger. Not a bad pick for protection, but it didn't work. There's no evidence Zinger willingly broke a promise, and that seems badly against his play. True, if we started with two docs a Strongman wouldn't be out of the question, but it's still sus.

The attitude I get off of monster right now doesn't help either.

Your thoughts as to a two or three man mafia?

If you believe that Dusky was killed by scum, that is moderate evidence on balance that I am not scum. My personal disinclination to kill her aside, I very specifically pinky promised to protect the institution of Terisian mayor and its representative. That representative is (seeing as elections haven't been held in a decade!) Dusky herself.

On Mongoose: I find his behavior less exculpatory than KoD suggests, as hammering Exlight gave Aaarrrgh 48 much-needed hours to concoct new arguments. I find it possible, therefore, that they are scum-buddies.

On Aaarrrgh: His exchanges with Zinger and KoD at the end of Day 2 looked bad, but Mongoose swooped in to relieve that pressure, and now Aaarrrgh seems to have a feasible excuse. I don't really want to excuse him for that. However....

On Amber: My suspicion, based on the currently known distribution of abilities, is that mafia specializes thematically in 'breaking promises'. KoD's missing pinky is one example, but based on the win conditions in the OP, and given that Dusky is listed as having lost despite there being no indication that she broke what ought to have been a publicly verifiable promise, I suspect her promise was forcibly broken as well (because self-aligned loses if they break a promise -- Exlight made no (?) promises, and therefore he 'wins'). If we accept that the pinky-harvesting ability and this other hypothetical promise-breaking ability originate with scum, which I believe to be reasonable assumptions, then Amber has the third known ability that violates promises. Ergo, she either slots perfectly into the third potential scum slot, or else she is covering a promise-breaking ability in a way that she thinks won't be counter-claimed (because she assumes - knows? - that town will have pro-promise roles).

I am also deeply suspicious Monster, and I think that she might be the lynch, but I'm about to run out of time, so I'll be back later this evening to share my thoughts on her.

I don't currently suspect KoD or Tevesh.

We were told 1/4 non-town roles. We have 13 players which should mean 3 or (rounding up) 4 non-town. With two Self dead, we expect a 2-man maf based on OP.

I didn't consider that about Goose, but Arrgh had already made his promise with me well before I made my promise to be the last to vote Ex. Given the WIFOM around Ex, I just don't see scum taking a needless risk. Maybe some players like Zinger, Rag, or even HW. Goose doesn't strike me as the type though.

Also, ty Tevish.

i mean my claim is basically just pseudo-miller or something (or miller to promise-cops, i guess?) so you can take that how you like

im inclined to believe tevish is town just from d1 and how he's been playing
kod also feels pretty town atm

i think i'm most inclined to lynch monster or mongoose today
monster because the targeting/claims don't really add up
mongoose because at this point im pretty sure he's lurking harder than me

KoD is tipping his hand. The reason Mafia hadn't killed me up until now is because they planned all along to throw shade my way come Day 3. It's a somewhat brilliant plan, too, given an unconfirmed Doctor when one doc already flipped is suspicious enough on its own. I wouldn't be surprised if they devised it Night 1 after Rag's lynch.

Was the whole bit about someone taking your pinky on Day 2 a big ol' distraction gambit to get people to sympathize with you and paint you as Town a day before you'd need their support in lynching the other doctor?

This guy outright refused to pinky promise on his alignment, and now in hindsight looks like he baited town players dusky and zinger into making trust pacts together, only to kill them at night and then use their deaths as excuses to go on righteous finger-pointing rampages without drawing suspicion.

If I wasn't so disgusted by it all being the one targeted, I'd applaud your near super-villain-esque Machiavellian plot, KoD. But since I am being targeted, I'll just vote you instead.

Vote: KoD

The practical facts of Monster's case are as follows.

1. It is not especially likely that town has two doctors in a 13 player game where scum have only 1 night kill. It would be likely if scum had two night kills, but the death of only Zinger last night combined with Monster having claimed to protect Zinger renders the possibility of a second kill all but impossible. Ergo, I am skeptical of Monster's claim.

2. As others have noted, Zinger does not lie. This policy presumably extends even more so to solemn game-mechanical promises that are already subject to his NLP. It is potentially the case, as Monster says, that Zinger was targeted by some sort of promise-breaking ability, and maybe we ought to consider as much given that one or two are in the game, but her claim still rings -- to me -- a little bit hollow.

3. Protecting Tevesh wasn't (inherently) scummy. Given Tevesh's association with the only demonstrable doctor, his proactive protection of Rag herself, and the undue risk to his survival that his protection of Rag entailed, he was the closest thing to verifiable town. Ergo, for a Doctor, he might be a viable target of protection under a counter-play scenario that assumes both a) that scum will not take the level 0 play of targeting the actual doctor, and b) that Zinger's weak investigative role does not constitute a meaningful threat to scum (which is plausible if scum indeed can break others' promises).

4. If Rag was a weak doctor, then the basic claim in (1) is weaker in turn. I do not recall offhand whether Rag made a specific claim about her power level, nor am I inclined at this instant to crawl through the thread to find out. Does anyone recall?

5. Monster is still alive. If she had protected herself once, then I might be inclined to believe that she won her WIFOM bet on the other night. Perhaps she outwitted mafia, but that's a pretty big ask in the context of the facts.

I feel like the marginal and suspect situations add up.

And a miller claim Day 3 is ultimately suspect. The pro-town thing to do (unless you are active or threatening enough to get yourself reliably killed at night) is to announce your miller status Day 1. Either you argue your way to survival, in which case town can act around you on later days; or else you die with marginal benefit because there doesn't happen to be a better lynch.

Otherwise, you waste investigations. Given that we (did) have a promise cop, and given further that said promise cop claimed Day 1, you have no viable reason I can see to not simply step forward and lay your status out.

This reads like a front to me to avoid the accountability of making any promises.

Relevant note: Rag's Claim

I don't find Amber's lack of claiming sus as not making promises did effectively preempt the downside of "Wasting" Zinger's investigation. If anything, not promising things needlessly meant that Amber de-miller-ized himself by his play.

VOTE: MONSTER

@Tevesh: Thank you. That's a fairly strong variant, so I think we can safely discount (4) from my list.

You make a good point (in that it's not as bad as I assumed), but it's still a better play for town if Amber both de-millarizes and outs herself to town as a whole. Declining to make promises without revealing the nature of her role still makes her a magnet for wasted abilities.

As far as voting goes, I suggest that we not place official votes until we've actually hashed out our positions. If we have 2 mafia, three town votes will give them a hammer; and if we have 3, then two misplaced votes lose the game.

Maybe vote by intention for now?

@Monster:

As much as I'd love to be the villain you think I am, I'm afraid there are more cunning individuals out there than myself. I'm only a simple person trying to figure things out.

I'm faced with trying to sus out two scum players without much else to go on other than what is presented. I've already narrowed it down, but I could be wrong. Maybe. I won't know until there is a body to reveal things.

My focus on you is strictly because of what I've said. The major point against you is the whole having targeted Zinger and failing to protect him. Minor points, for me, revolve around you bringing up my promise to him and my missing pinky. Now, my paranoia could be getting the best of me. After all, we do have others that are a tad sus, though the level isn't as great as what there is at present with you.


Goose is sus to both Amber and Skystone. For Amber it is the level of activity. Fine, that's fair. With Skystone, though, it revolves around Goose swooping in to hammer Ex and potentially buy time for Arrgh to argue better. Personally, I don't see it as the business with Arrgh was concluded when he made his promise with me. After that it was general grilling that wasn't exactly going to lead to his lynch because of Ex still being around. So I don't put much faith in the angle Sky has there.

Amber hasn't been real active, but she's there. Might be scum. Might not.

Arrgh I could see because of the interactions we had.

Skystone is maybe a deep wolf.


So the task before me isn't an easy one.


Personally, I think scum will tend to play safe in general. That idea will miss the bold players though. You would be a bold player if you're scum, Monster. Aggressively so.


Let me be open minded though. You say you're being truthful. That you can protect someone who hasn't willfully broken a promise. Even if it the promise was broken by force, you'd be able to protect them. Therein lies the crux of the issue for me regarding you.

Let's assume for a moment that the two mafia players get abilities separate from the kill. I know one of their abilities is to cut off a pinky. The other more than likely happened to Dusky. Maybe. She has a loss despite having only one promise with me AFAIK. Then there is CL. Maybe the other maf ability is being able to force a kill through a promise. That is, maybe they can kill someone by breaking their promise. That being an ability coupled with a normal maf hit would explain both deaths and why Dusky has a L.

Further, it would explain the lack of another kill today assuming that abilitybwas a one shot as opposed to multiple use.

So what about Zinger? Well, perhaps that maf player has another ability to use that negated your protection. Maybe.

Honestly, that has to be the case, otherwise you are the culprit. It takes way less to assume that you are lying about being a doctor and are, instead, making kills while utilizing something that breaks promises. Or maybe not at all if our one doctor truly is gone.

If we're at 8 alive with only 3 maf alive, we shouldn't be at risk of losing. Tevish made the point that 25% of the player base as nontown is accounted for with 2 selfs and 2 mafs.

We actually should be relatively safe to eliminate people. I don't disagree with hashing out positions. Some people (Arrgh and Goose) still need to contribute.

8 with 3 mad would make this MyLo as we'd be 5-3 got to 4-3 on a mislynch and 3-3 after a NK. I don't find that terribly likely given the flips, though.

When discussing setup: remember that Ex signed up late and thus possibly was not included in the original alignment breakdown.

Regarding two kills/strongman arguments: there is an off chance that mafia could have two kills but can focus both on the same player to break through protection, but that seems unlikely.

Regarding my focus on Tevish: you did not need to force me into a promise to make me back of Tevish, that's just how you chose to do it. You could instead have let me pursue my suspicions, allow myself to become confident that they were unfounded (which I now mostly have done), and move on. I chose not to give him a free pass, that doesn't mean I would have pursued him beyond reason. It is possible to question and and put pressure on someone without being stupid about it, you just never gave me a chance to do it.

If Ex wasn't included, the start was 12. 1/4 non-town would cleanly mean 3 nontown, and dusky was self. We still come to the idea that there should be 2 maf and not 3. If it's 3, I'm going to ask JD a few pointed questions about fractions when this is all over.

If Ex wasn't lying about the non-alignment part of his role, then he technically might not have been formally non-town prior to his lynch, in which case the numbers disingenuously yield 3 scum. This is Jay, so we ought to hedge against that.

(Even if the obvious math yields two.)

@Arrgh:

There was nothing to pursue. You were adamant that Tevish didn't offer an adequate defense. He disagreed. That's it. When pressed by me to commit to an Ex lynch via a promise, you were a waffle as Zinger pointed out.

For two days you've strictly been on Tevish with D2 being the exception due to the promise.

Now Zinger is dead, and I cant help but wonder if it was meant to help lessen pressure on you.