Srs question.

The answer is Rag was town and rag died because of the kod push

Tevish, Zinger, Aaarrrgh, KoD all sus
Zinger dead tho
Thats makes the rest of them even more sus

Zinger was confirmed town, so technically not really sus.

The other three choosing to vote for town rather than the lurker they're currently pushing is definitely sus, though. I'd expect to find that two of them are scum.

Aaarrgh wants to play nlp

That leaves 2

Given that we are essentially at endgame, I would like you to propose some 'reads' of some kind, or some other set of defined and accountable suspicions for us to mull over. In particular, because I tend to find your basic strategy to be relatively low-commitment (in terms of concrete positions) and therefore (to me) slightly suspicious, data would give me a better sense of where you're at.


He can lie about alignment (and things that pertain to alignment). So the NLP doesn't mean that he can't be a suspect. Or do you have another reason to exonerate him?

He said "genuinely thought" the other day

He technically said "I genuinely think it's the best lynch available." If he's scum, the best lynch available is technically town. So I'm not sure that's strong enough evidence.

Eh maybe right. You think he just fuking with us?

Okay, votecounts don't contain a lot of info, but here are some things to consider: Dusky wagon was me, Zinger, and Naga. I kinda instigated it, so I'm willing to accept some sus on that, that's the risk you take playing these games. We know what Zinger's deal was, so that's nothing, and Naga hasn't really contributed any value since then. So that's some actual sus to put on Naga apart from the lurking.

Dusky and Sky both voted Zinger. Dusky and Zinger are now dead town, Sky looked kinda sus in that situation, that's been gone over back when it happened.

KoD voted me and defended Dusky. That should imply that at least one of us is town. KoD isn't clear, because shifting focus from one townie to another is NAI.

Tevish tried to Sky, but failed to do so within the rules. I doubt that we are looking at a Tevish/Sky scum team, but if we were this could be a massive big brain play to distance without actually risking anything. Failing to read the rules is a more likely explanation, but I just wanted to mention that because it was funny to me.

Naga actually looks genuine sus to me, in which case his partner would probably be either Tevish or KoD (although that would make me wrong about the KoD/Amber thing, which would make me sad).

If Naga is innocent, my money would be on a Sky/CL team.

Now I need to sleep.

I find your reasoning here slightly suspect. If Naga does look genuine sus, then you ought to look even more so. By your definition. Not only did you, like Naga, vote to kill Dusky (with your vote proving decisive), but you -- unlike Naga -- also got Rag lynched. So that's two deaths on you.

Insofar, then, as that one piece of evidence is your only point on Naga, you ought to conclude that you yourself are the lynch.

Why would KoD and Tevish be Naga's partners?

Also, and perhaps most crucially, why in the world you go through the votes, but not consider the recent lynching of Rag? By definition (as a result of information levels), lynches occurring later in the game are far more telling than those occurring earlier. You are apparently willing to spend several paragraphs discussing Day 1 voting in order to build a case on Naga for a low information commitment, but the three living players who voted Rag after pages and pages of discussion don't warrant a mention?

Tevish and KoD pushed for Naga lynch at the start of the day. So you think they're partners based you think that there to going to bus today? Makes no sense.I kinda do think your messing with us for reads or something

Hes being either really dumb or really smart

There's a bit to comment on wrt to possible scum candidates and lynching Naga.

Starting with Naga first, I still find the reasons Tevish laid out to be valid and sound. Consider, for a moment, Naga is scum aligned. Regardless of whether he truly is inactive (as seems to be the case) or lurking without a care (because it doesn't seem like there is a punishment outside of replacing despite Skystone suggesting the possibility of a modkill), lynching a scum Naga here nets scum. On the flip side should he be town, he is not doing us any favors. For exactly the reason Tevish said, an afk town Naga making it to LyLo hands the game over to scum. While it is unfortunate, it is better to lynch a town Naga here and have the activity of Town actually be a factor in LyLo.

Now then, I've made my feelings on Skystone known because of how yesterday's arguments turned out. Amber's death was intentional, and someone had said how it was likely done to get someone to bite at it to cause problems. Rag bit. Skystone supported Rag's case despite the fact he had fielded a meme policy style lynch at the start of the game.

What I find interesting about the votes yesterday isn't so much who voted Rag, but who participated in going after Naga. Rag is the exception here by virtue of hindsight. Naga was still afk yesterday and fielded as an alternative to Rag ***despite*** the arguing that occurred between Rag and I. This is interesting because neither Skystone nor Zinger were killed after D1. Instead both were still alive moving forward. Had Naga been lynched, the same would be with Rag and I (neither of us revealed and that much closer to LyLo).

Now, we see Skystone here pushing sus on those of us that pushed Rag then and Naga now despite the differing circumstances. For all intents and purposes, no one on Naga yesterday is clear of being sus (despite the sus being aimed broadly elsewhere).

CL does still exist. A major part of his interactions was with Zinger (much to Zinger's chagrin). He's been offering small posts constantly at a variety of people and angles. I dont know who he views as scum as it seems he's more interested in posting ideas about others as opposed to forming a case.

More to come later

If Naga is scum-aligned and inactive, then Tevish's case works in inverse. We can lynch normally today, then instead of 2-2-1 tomorrow, we have 2-1-1 -- effectively, traditional 3 person LyLo. Statistically, Naga is more likely to be town that scum (and still by a decent margin), so we ought to be operating from the town assumption in any case.


You are very intentionally trying to talk around the problem. It doesn't matter when LyLo is. It matters that we optimize the one guaranteed lynch remaining to us. Lynching Naga doesn't increase the capacity of town to lynch scum -- it merely puts off our chance to lynch scum till tomorrow. Given the large percentage of lurkers, today is in effect de facto LyLo in the sense that it is the last Day during which active town players are guaranteed to outnumber active scum.

As I already said to Tevish, deferring the real lynch to target Naga means leaving the fate of town in another lurker's hands.

As opposed to the fabled unintentional mafia lynch? Say, a fortuitous case of head-desk sent in serendipitous fashion to Jay?


That's a lot of words to say very little. Essentially, rather than examining the motivations of players who voted to lynch a townie, you'd prefer to wax poetic about how mafia are taking the entirely usual and normative action of not night-killing people with targets on their back. What you

Ultimately, though, one of the basic tools for assessing culpability in games of mafia is assessing votes in order to determine motivations. Any vaguely competent townie would have a vested interest in determining why certain players voted for Rag as well as why certain players did not. Ergo, what you should be doing is examining the votes on the confirmed town player in order to determine who might have joined the wagon as a matter of convenience. If you also want to look at the votes on Naga, then do so, but they're ultimately less informative by definition for the reason that Naga's alignment remains unknown.

I did take D2 votes under consideration, I was just too tied to write about them in detail. The reason I would expect either KoD or Tevish to be partners with Naga is because of D2 votes. Conversely, them pushing the Naga lynch right now means very little, because it happened early in the day with plenty of time to shift away if opportunity presents itself, and throwing an infantine scum partner under the bus is a valid way to avoid suspicion anyway.

And come on now, Sky, you can't expect me to push from my own lynch. Everything I say is based on the premise that I am town. That's how everyone argues in this game. I even said that I was willing to accept some sus over my mistakes, so I have no clue what you're pushing for.

Here's something worth consideration: Naga is the only true inactive. Rube is here, but sort of half off. So Skystone's argument against deleting Naga, IMO, doesn't exactly hold water. It's something that needs to be considered if Rube still isn't fully with us come EoD, but right now it's a naga lurker lynch that best prevents a deadlocked LyLo.

There should be a second PR in town. We are at a point in the game that Might As Well Be LyLo, so I feel like that player (it is not me) is probably strongly incentivized to claim.

That aside, I'm starting to think Skystone/CL sus. I went back and read over the thread, and while at the time I thought Zinger was kind of OMGUSing, it is eerie how they've on the same wavelength, covering. Also, while CL has been oddly good boy this game, it occurred to me that I'm not sure I've ever seen his scum play. Considering his town meta is all over the place, it is a delta that he seems rather controlled and contained now, making me wonder if he's being coached OOT.

Tevish, you are either misreading or misrepresenting Sky's argument. He is well aware of how weak town is with two lurkers, which is why he wants to treat today as LyLo (or technically MyLo, I guess). Because town lurkers are less dangerous if there's a single impostor.