Eh I suppose I can sleep a bit later.

So, today is going to be fun because we've gotten quite a few controls in place.

Before I state my result though, I'd like to get some knee-jerk reactions out of me. Firstly, though, I'd like to point out that, regardless of whatever happens today, the optimal line of play is to not lynch and gather information.* Secondly, wrt to Krampus's abilities, it is worth making a note that, as I said earlier, the ability Krampus has had each year has differed. The first time I played I was Krampus (as well as the second) and both abilities were different. They were also public. For example, the first ability (from the first year) inverted all results. The second one differed (and truth be told I'd have to look at the PM to even remember). Regardless, one key feature that I ***think*** was consistent every year was that the ability couldn't be used with a kill (Krampus had to pass a night of killing to use the ability). So, typically, it was mostly a matter of was the ability used on the first night (since that night was a no kill night as always).

(* This is barring anything completely out of the norm like, for example, Tevish's suggestion about a Krampus cult.)

I can't recall if something similar has happened in the past, but we've had a second night with no kill which should be an indication that the Krampus ability has been used.

Here are the controls: Zinger's target, CL's target, and my target.

As a refresher:

D1 targets (player, target = result)
Arrgh, CL = Naughty
CL, Zinger = Nice
KoD, KoD = Nice
Tevish, KoD = Naughty
Zinger, CL = Naughty


Now, D2 targets:
Arrgh, ? = Nice? (Different result from D1 based on Arrgh's wording in his post.)
CL, Zinger = Nice
KoD, KoD = Naughty (No, this is not a mistake and it is the reason why I think today will be loads of fun.)
Tevish, Tevish = Naughty
Zinger, CL = Naughty


Yes, I targeted myself again last night to serve as a control for whether or not there would be any shenanigans, and it seems like there was. Course, before I continue, I need to refer to the Krampus abilities of years past. I already mentioned how they differ and blah blah blah, but the main thing to mention now is that when Rag (as Lilan) was Krampus the third year (pretty sure it was the third year with the fourth year being Tevish and now this is year five) her ability was to place a lump of coal into someone's stocking causing results on that player to be inverted (to the best of my memory). This is of importance because Krampus's ability can be singular in target yet affect multiple results pending player targets.

Now, it seems like of the three of us that had the same targets, CL and Zinger's stayed the same. Mine was the only difference which indicates, to me, that perhaps it is just my results that were different (and thankfully no one targeted me either so that negates any concern over a lump of coal style ability on me).

Let's look back at the sanities wrt to results. Initially with D1 CL and myself had a chance of being Naive/Sane while the rest of you had a chance of being Paranoid/Insane. Going into D2 with the results, it seems that only three players had differing results from D1 (myself and Arrgh though I should be ignored as a natural change). Of note among those that got Naughty again is Tevish since he chose to target himself and got Naughty. That should, exclusively, prove him to be Paranoid.

Arrgh was the only one to state a natural change in result (Naughty to Nice -- granted this is being assumed based on the wording of his post which gives the indication that he isn't Paranoid. Course with Tevish's result, it seems to be a sure thing that Arrgh isn't Paranoid). To me it seems likely that Arrgh is Sane/Insane (as of this moment as I haven't worked my way through all the implications more so than just focusing on who is what possible sanity(-ies) based on stated results).

CL could Sane/Insane and Zinger could be either Sane/Insane.

To me I think Krampus has to be Zinger, but let's look at it more clearly than how I've constructed it.


******************************************************************

Arrgh is Krampus

CL got Nice on Zinger twice.
KoD got Nice/Naughty on himself D1/D2 respectively.
Tevish got Naughty/Naughty on KoD/Tevish respectively.
Zinger got Naughty twice on CL.

- By virtue of Tevish's results, Tevish has to be Paranoid.
- Both Zinger and CL got similar results on their same target twice. Zinger can't be Paranoid (taken) which means Zinger is either Sane or Insane.
- CL could be Naive or Sane.
- Due to the assumption of Arrgh being Krampus, there is a logical inconsistency with CL's sanity choices and Zinger's sanity choices (Zinger as Sane implicates CL as Krampus while CL as possibly Insane implicates Zinger). It should follow that should the sanity choices be exhausted Arrgh will never be implicated while others are which makes this possibility wrong.

* That's not even taking into account whether you assume, based on my weird results, whether I am Naive (in which case CL has to be Sane/Insane which conflicts with Zinger anyway) or Sane/Insane in some way (which, again, messes with the sanities of CL and Zinger).


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KoD is Krampus

Arrgh got Naughty on CL and Nice(?) on someone else.
CL got Nice on Zinger twice.
Tevish got Naughty/Naughty on KoD/Tevish respectively.
Zinger got Naughty twice on CL.

- Tevish is the only one with a result on KoD; however, due to his next result on himself (Naughty as well) that means Tevish is either Paranoid (which clears KoD) or Tevish's result (D1 or D2) was messed with by KoD (which indicates that Tevish could be Sane/Insane).
- CL could be Naive or Sane (disregarding Insane due to it implicating Zinger which disproves the premise).
- Zinger could be Paranoid or Insane (disregarding Sane as that implicates CL).
- Arrgh could be/is Insane (based on the wording of his post). This means that Arrgh would have gotten a Nice result on KoD.

- If Arrgh targeted KoD and got Nice, then Arrgh has to be Insane (as a Sane result doesn't jive with the premise).
- By extension, Zinger has to be Paranoid since Arrgh is Insane.
- Furthermore, Tevish would have to be Sane (with a tampered D2 result), and CL would be Naive.

This scenario is valid assuming Tevish's D2 result was tampered with (which, if that's the case, strictly implicates me).

*Obligatory note of I don't consider this to be the case. The only reason it should be brought up is due to my own insistence that there was a tampering of results.

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CL is Krampus

Arrgh got Naughty on CL and Nice(?) on someone else.
KoD got Nice/Naughty on himself D1/D2 respectively.
Tevish got Naughty/Naughty on KoD/Tevish respectively.
Zinger got Naughty twice on CL.

- Tevish has to be Paranoid due to a Naughty result on himself (and a Naughty result on someone else).
- Zinger has to be Sane.
- Arrgh has to be Sane as well. This creates a logical inconsistency which means this scenario is disproved.

*It's probably worth noting that my result was tampered with due to two differing results on myself. In this scenario I am, more than likely, Naive which leaves Insane and Sane as possibilities; however, between Arrgh and Zinger both can't be Sane (with Naughty results on CL). Obviously Paranoid is taken by Tevish.

*It SHOULD be noted that IF Arrgh targeted me for his Nice result, then that has several implications. First, assuming it tampered with Arrgh's result, then Arrgh would have gotten Naughty on me which means he has to be Paranoid which conflicts with Tevish's sanity. Second, assuming it didn't tamper with Arrgh's result, well, he'd be Sane as previously stated which doesn't mesh with Zinger's sanity. So, in either event, this entire scenario isn't logically consistent.


******************************************************************

Tevish is Krampus

Arrgh got Naughty on CL and Nice(?) on someone else.
CL got Nice on Zinger twice.
KoD got Nice/Naughty on himself D1/D2 respectively.
Zinger got Naughty twice on CL.


- First and foremost CL can be Naive and Zinger can be Paranoid.
- Arrgh would have to be Insane (with his Nice result on Tevish).
- I'm, likely, Naive. If I'm Naive, then CL can't be Naive and, instead, is Sane.

*So it looks like Me as Naive, CL as Sane, Zinger as Paranoid, and Arrgh as Insane works out as a plausible scenario for Tevish being Krampus (but this only holds if Arrgh got a Nice result on Tevish).

This scenario is tentatively valid.


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Zinger is Krampus

Arrgh got Naughty on CL and Nice(?) on someone else.
CL got Nice on Zinger twice.
KoD got Nice/Naughty on himself D1/D2 respectively.
Tevish got Naughty/Naughty on KoD/Tevish respectively.

- Tevish is Paranoid.
- Arrgh has to be Insane with a Nice result on Zinger.
- CL has to be Insane (due to a Nice result on Zinger).

*I'm assuming I'm Naive given my results on myself.

As far as this scenario goes, there is a logical error that originates with the Insane sanity between Arrgh and CL which, imo, invalidates this scenario.


******************************************************************


Analysis:

Pretty much it seems to me that Tevish has to be Krampus, but this strictly depends on who Arrgh targeted and what his result was (which is being assumed to be a Nice result based on the wording of his post).

As far as my own result on myself goes, it really only has a direct bearing on my own result as it is obvious it switched from Nice to Naughty (on myself). Due to Zinger and CL, it doesn't seem like others were affected, but that is assuming Arrgh didn't target me (and if he did and claims me to be Krampus I would advice you all lynch me right away, then lynch Arrgh for lying -- but I don't think he'll have a result on me).

That's pretty much all I have atm barring Arrgh stating his result.

I thought I had already posted my result, but apparently I didn't. That's annoying. Anyway, I targeted KoD, which is very interesting. I now no longer presume to have any clue who is Krampus.

I believe the lump of coal made all investigations of the target show Naughty, not reverse. So it could be we got that version this time.

And to clarify, yes, KoD is on my Nice list.

Well things just got real interesting.

Yes, just verified that the lump of coal did override all results to return Naughty on the target (which Lilan used on herself).


As for here...

Well,

Arrgh got Naughty on CL and Nice on KoD.
CL got Nice on Zinger twice.
KoD got Nice/Naughty on himself D1/D2 respectively.
Tevish got Naughty/Naughty on KoD/Tevish respectively.
Zinger got Naughty twice on CL.


Strictly speaking, I know I am not Krampus, and I honestly didn't expect Arrgh to have a Nice result on me. But that's where we are so now.


@Arrgh: I doubt we're seeing the opposite of the lump of coal as I investigated myself and got Naughty.

It seems to me that my results were inverted while anyone targeting me may have had their results switched.

Let's revisit each scenario although this time I'll consider my sanity a bit more deeply (although I do think I am Naive given my switch and the fact that Arrgh got Nice as opposed to Naughty like me).


******************************************************************

Arrgh is Krampus

I'm going to disregard this scenario because the previous outlook still holds. That is, this scenario is not consistent.

******************************************************************

KoD is Krampus

The main point of contention here is that if Tevish is Paranoid, then I'm cleared. This is because of Zinger's Naughty result on CL which means Zinger has to be either Insane or Paranoid. Course, given Tevish's sanity as being Paranoid, Zinger has to be Insane.

Likewise, Arrgh would have to be Insane in this scenario. Much more likely since he did get a Nice result on KoD. That leaves no sanity for Zinger to essentially be (CL could be Sane or Naive while Tevish has to be Paranoid and Arrgh has to be Insane. Zinger can't be Sane as that implicates CL).

Huh, can't believe I didn't catch that earlier. Although I suppose Tevish could be Sane (with a tampered result), but that still leaves Arrgh as having to be Insane (and leaves Zinger with no sanity choices).

Yeah, I think I'm comfortable with stating this scenario is logically inconsistent.



******************************************************************


CL is Krampus

Tevish still has to be Paranoid. Arrgh could be Sane. Zinger would have to be Sane too. I would be Naive (or possibly Insane). That leaves Insane out in the dust as both Arrgh and Zinger have Naughty results on CL (and Arrgh has a Nice result on me). That leaves Zinger without a sanity yet again.

I'm ok with stating this scenario is invalid. Especially since if I wasn't Naive (let's say Sane), then it just adds to the inconsistency of whoever is Sane. I suppose, given Arrgh targeting me and my result switch, Arrgh could be Naive (with an opposite result on me from the Krampus ability). But even if Arrgh was Naive, I can't be Insane.

Well let's see. First night I got Nice. If that was the altered result (and I'm Insane), and Arrgh truly did get a correct result on me, that'd have to make Arrgh Sane while I -- no, the first night can't be the altered result otherwise I'd be Krampus would be Insane. That'd explain my Naughty result on myself N2 and Arrgh's Nice result. Course, the issue still remains of Arrgh being Sane and Zinger having to be Sane.

And even if I flipped it around and assumed my D2 result was tampered (thereby messing with Arrgh's), there is still the issue of conflicting sanities (whether it be Arrgh being Paranoid vs Tevish being Paranoid or, possibly something else).

So yeah, this scenario can't be valid. Strictly because an inconsistency pops up whether you assume a tampered result on Arrgh or not (as well as the implication of my own results when considering my own sanity).


******************************************************************


Tevish is Krampus

Alright. Zinger could be Paranoid or Insane. CL could be Naive or Sane. Arrgh might be Paranoid (or Insane). As for myself, I may be Naive.

Zinger as Paranoid. CL as Sane. Arrgh as Insane. Me as Naive. Insane Arrgh gets a Nice result on me -- no, Arrgh can't be Insane -- no, he can be because it is a flipped result. It does fit. It also works if you flip Zinger and Arrgh. Likewise it works if you flip CL and I (as my flipped result on myself turns Naughty).

So yes, this scenario is completely valid thus far based on given information and meshing different possibilities.


******************************************************************


Zinger is Krampus

Tevish is Paranoid.
CL could be Naive or Insane.
Arrgh could be Insane.
I would be Sane.

Tevish always is Paranoid. CL could be Naive. Arrgh could be Insane (due to the switched result on me). And I would be Sane.

or

Tevish is always Paranoid. CL could be Insane. Arrgh could be -- no, he can't be Naive due to his first result on CL being Naughty. Arrgh certainly can't be Paranoid due to Tevish's own results (which make Tevish Paranoid).

This scenario is valid if and only if Arrgh is Insane (which is possible).

******************************************************************


So far Krampus has to be either Tevish or Zinger. Of the two scenarios, the Tevish is Krampus scenario is much broader as far as possible combinations whereas the Zinger is Krampus scenario is limited (in that Arrgh strictly has to be Insane with me as Sane).


Near as far as I can tell, every other scenario has a logical inconsistency that invalidates them.

At this point whoever is Krampus is on the verge of being sused out.


And it doesn't matter who dies tonight either because we've gotten a lot of information.

I'll be targeting myself again tonight to assess my alignment for sure.

Quick question... Why can't Tevish possibly be Insane in this scenario? You say he HAS to be Paranoid because of his two Naughty results, but that statement ONLY holds water if you, KoD, are Krampus...

ie. If Tevish's targets were KoD and then himself and he got Naughty twice, then, assuming KoD is Santa (which we are in the Argh Krampus scenario), that means Tevish is Paranoid or Insane (two Naughty results on two Santas is fine for Insane).

The fact that KoD seems convinced here that Tevish must be paranoid in order for his double Naughty results to make sense is maybe a slip that KoD is Krampus? Because Insane Tevish wouldn't have Naughty twice if KoD was Krampus... Hmm... He also claims Krampus targeted him Night 1 with some sort of ability which changed his result on himself, a convenient claim if he expected people to target him and get Naughty. I need to think on this some more...

Assuming no shenanigans.

If we assume KoD is Krampus
I am Insane or Paranoid (CL should show Nice not Naughty)
Argh must be Insane (Naughty on CL, Nice on KoD)
Tevish must be Paranoid (Double Naughty, on different aligned people)
CL is Sane or Naive

This is logically inconsistent and would appear to not make sense, BUT it is possible IF there were some sort of shenanigans.

I'm starting to distrust you, KoD...

I haven't evaluated the rest, yet. Still at work. Just that stuck out for me, which I paid more attention to because KoD said he didn't need to re-evaluate Aaarrrgh in his second evaluation post as it was still consistent (which, it wasn't).

You are correct that in the Arrgh is Krampus scenario Tevish could be insane while either CL and myself could be a combination of Naive/Sane and you could be Paranoid.

That's just an oversight on my part given how much I'm trying to process given a small lack of rest. Hardly an issue though since ppl can look it over and we're not deciding the game over it.

I must say though, your reaction this time around to a similar issue this time is a bit glaring. Don't you think so?


And what sort of shenanigans would you imagine then, Zinger? Because as it stands the only shenanigans to be pointed out is coming from what I've claimed.

I'm not really sure. I just am going by your presumption that a lack of kill implies shenanigans were had, and your statement of a change in your check on yourself also implies shenanigans, probably, unless you're Krampus (but even then, probably a statement of distraction against whatever real shenanigans were caused).

My reaction isn't all that glaring. It's twice now I've found inconsistencies in things you've said. It'd be glaring if I didn't start to sus you a bit because of it.

But anyway. I'm being paranoid. We both agree Krampus is up to something with the lack of a kill, but we don't have a clue what, and that bugs me. If what you've said about a different power each year holds true, then it is possible this year is an entirely new power too.

You're the most interesting party right now, because either you're Krampus, or you've been **** with by Krampus. I think I plan to look at you tonight, though I am not sure how smart it is to advertise our targets beforehand.

I'm going to go look at the previous dethy games. I need to see what a typical Krampus role looks like.

Dethy: Christmas Rumble


Dethy: Christmas Rumble 2 - Rumble Harder


Dethy: Christmas Rumble with a Vengence

Note: Christmas Rumble 3 was the first Christmas Dethy that didn't reveal Krampus' bonus power at the start of the game.

Dethy: Live Free or Christmas Rumble

Note: I'm not really sure I understand how this ability worked (something about swapping everyone's sanities?), but it was also private until the game's end.

Which brings us to the 5th (and final? until they make a Die Hard 6?) installment. Again we are dealing with a private ability that is different from the last 4, presumably a one-shot power, and the standard ability to kill on Nights after Night 0. Lack of a Kill Night 1 implies a power was used. In theory, KoD's results being changed was the result? I dunno.

It's glaring because it is inconsistent. After all, you didn't sus me the first time around.

Ultimately this is a puzzle to be solved as opposed to a standard mafia game where we vote people out to obtain more information.

It's not at all uncommon for a mistake to be made. To sus someone over it on the other hand is glaring (especially when you didn't do it the first time).


Regardless, without an idea of what the shenanigans are all you're doing by trying to maintain me as a possibility is no different than saying, for example, that CL could still be Krampus because shenanigans. You're effectively trying to keep the PoE wide as opposed to narrowing it down via the information we gain (shenanigans or not).

What's interesting is that despite this stated perspective, you're effectively ignoring the implications of the other results.

Let's assume I am Krampus, again. As you've already noted when you looked you run into an issue. That issue being that with your result on CL (twice), and Tevish's results (on me and himself), CL's results on you (twice), and Arrgh on CL than me creatures:

- Tevish has to be Paranoid as he can't be Insane (otherwise he'd have a Nice result on me the first time).
- Arrgh has to be Insane due to a Naughty on CL, then a Nice on me.

This creates an issue for you because you, with a Naughty result twice on CL, can't be Insane (taken by Arrgh due to "prove" results) nor can you Paranoid (for similar reasons since Tevish did investigate me as Krampus and himself as Naughty).

I literally cannot be Krampus, unless you try to justify a switch in results on people (of which there is no reason to assume as such) since you got your same result on CL. Course if you alter Arrgh's results, that removes the implication of me being Krampus due to him. How about Tevish's? Perhaps if Tevish's N1 target was altered to help make him Insane (though that would conflict with Arrgh's). Perhaps his second investigation which would then hint at him being Sane leaving Paranoid open for you then. That would work.

But the problem there is you have to assume, with no reasonable basis, that Tevish, as opposed to anyone else, was the singular target to be tampered with today. That, and ignoring the glaring fact that I am the only one that voiced a different result to even indicate something else happened.


Not to mention it's far more of a reach to make that assumption than to accept, at face value, what has been stated and worked through (meaning less assumptions in any of the other scenarios).

Not really, no.

I'm not suggesting we lynch you. I just pointed out that the only instance where Tevish is confirmed Paranoid in the Aaarrrgh scenario is if you were Krampus, and that could have easily been a slip up on your part. I'm not saying it's a smoking gun nor am I trying to sling mud your way. I'm just trying to wrap my head around all this as you are (or claim to be).

And you ARE still a PoE, s'far as I am concerned. I don't have to try to make you one...?

Yeah, I dunno. I haven't done a deep dive through everything yet. I plan to tomorrow (real tomorrow, not game tomorrow). I just pointed out the thing which stood out as incorrect to me, and what looked like an attempt to sweep the incorrect statement as fact under a rug.

I'm friggin' paranoid about this unknown ability ****. It's completely screwing with my ability to trust what I'm seeing.

You can take all the time you like to come to your own conclusion, but until I see a valid reason other than shenanigans, I'm extremely likely to not be Krampus along with CL.

The purpose, after all, is to deduce who is Krampus based on info we have (which will include deaths if Krampus intends to win).

@JD: I'm for ending the day early.

I'll maybe see you tomorrow Zinger.

Im going to go through the results tomarrow morning

So, first of all I'm fairly certain that our full run cannot be trusted. None of the previous Krampus abilities required leaving off a kill, so this one is particularly nefarious? That's part of why I remembered the "Cult of Krampus" conversation. Thinking about it, I'm not sure how such an ability could work, though, to maintain reasonable game flow.

So, while suspecting that our results have been manipulated somehow, here's where I stand based on the results of N2

KoD is Krampus...
I must be SANE
One of Zinger or Aaarrrgh is INSANE. The other must be PARANOID
CL would be NAIVE (Sane ruled out by me being forced on Sane)
With two Naughty flags, I'm not Sane cop. This is impossible. Of course, since that single strike rules out KoD

Aaarrrgh is Krampus
One of myself or Zinger is INSANE. The other is PARANOID.
One of KoD or CL is SANE. The other is NAIVE
As of D2 this is still fully ambiguous.

Zinger is Krampus
One of Aaarrrgh or Myself is INSANE. The other must be PARANOID
KoD is SANE
CL is NAIVE
This is still viable, if a little weird because of KoD.

CL is Krampus
One of Aaarrrgh or Zinger is SANE. The other must be PARANOID
I must be INSANE
KoD must be NAIVE
This is a big fat ??? because of KoD getting different results with himself. Technically viable, but manipilated


To me, Aaarrrgh = Krampus seems the most likely scenario

EBWOP: "Miller Time" also replaced the kill.

See? Tevish found one scenario that is still valid wrt to CL being Krampus.