I decided to break down the day in two to make things easier for me: before and after Zinger's claim.

Before, Neo was raising all sorts of flags to me. I'm not yet decided if it is because he is scum or if it is just because I find his playstyle terrible, though.

After, Neo x Zinger looks like a fight between a Mafioso and a crazy Townie. Since Neo's case against Zinger makes almost zero sense to me, I'm more inclined to believe Neo is the one I want to see dead.

Posting has been difficult due to lack of internet in my house, but I am reading the thread. I'll try to voice my opinion when I'll feel the necessity and I'll cast my vote before the deadline.

Weird. I was getting the mafia playing Jester vibe from Zinger.

I'm going to cherry-pick something I got off Neosilk's argument:
Zinger can't win if he's not alive.
Neosilk's (assumed town for sake of argument) win con doesn't include surviving.
Zinger is not town.

Does this bit make sense, at least?

@Story, no it doesn't. It suffers from a fundamental flaw that Zinger has already pointed out and Neo keeps ignoring.

I must say I find the wording of your argument interesting. You have to premise based on Neo's supposed town win con. If you were town wouldn't it be simpler to premise off of your own win con?

Welcome back to the discussion Fel. What about my argument doesn't make sense?

I'm not sure how I can explain it better. Zinger is either not town, or he's town that's lying.

He's trying to talk people into a no lynch which prevents town from getting any information.
He "thinks" that mafia won't win by having the majority. As he said - he's not even sure about that. If he's wrong, and people agree with the no-lynch, then there is no mathematical way that town can win, barring multiple town roles that can prevent night kills. Again, it's D2, and we're at 6/3 - and we need to make it till D6.

Also - @Scar - Zinger changed from no lynch to voting for me.

Fake edit - Numbers, please show me what he keeps pointing out that I'm ignoring.

@Numbers
I was pretty sure I knew what the flaw was, but I am now also confused.

I was cherry-picking from Neo's argument, so I naturally used Neo as the example.
I didn't even think about using myself in the example there.

I don't think that's prudent to discuss at this time. Rather to say I would like other people to have the chance to weigh in on this situation beforehand because I would like to see their unbiased opinions. For this reason I'll ask Zinger not to continue the argument either. But I will go into full details no later than tomorrow evening, to allow for enough reaction time before the deadline (about 40 hours by my estimation).

That's fine with me - I just hope that there's some type of substance there.

No, any investigative role would not have to step forward. If they happened to target the same person as story they would know if storyteller was lying or not, giving them more information. This in turn allows them to either make a case against story if he is lying or they have someone confirmed narrowing down their search if he is telling the truth.



This has nothing to do with what I was asking. I'm not talking about future nights, I was asking about the past. For example story and playerA both targeted playerB last night. Story says his target was untargetable, and playerA got a message saying he got no information. PlayerA would know he was telling the truth.

Unfortunately too much time has gone by that if Story is scum, he's had too much time to come up with a believable lie.


It seems this thread exploded with posts from Zinger and Neosilk. I'll look through them when I get back from dinner.

Going to respect this request, if only that I would like to see more people weigh in on what has happened before I muddy the waters further.

We are running out of time though on this day. I am going on record saying that I believe NeoSilk and storyteller to be mafia. I also want the day to end in No Lynch. If we are to Lynch today I would like it to be NeoSilk. That is all.

Unvote for now, just cause I want to see what other people have to say and where they sit on this debate.

Your whole argument boils down to "Zinger's win-con is not exactly like I'm suposing the win-con of a vanilla Town player to be, ergo, he's not Town." Anything more than that is just you twisting Zinger's words, trying to force on them the meaning you want them to have. Since your base argument doesn't make sense, because you CAN'T, as much as you want to, infer that, everything else falls apart.

I want to stress that, as much as I'm siding with Zinger in this argument, I have no intention of following his plan. His assumption is most likely false, since there's no balance in a game where Town loses 3 players in D1/N1 and still can win by NL'ing into oblivion.

Fel, that's only part of my argument. Yes, I find it odd that Zinger has said that Town can win if he's dead, but that he can only win if he's alive. In my limited mafia history, the only time I've had a win-con like that was when I was a 3rd party, not part of town or scum.

Aside from that, his actions are suspect. He's trying to lead everyone around to a "win" by doing nothing. How do we get information if we don't lynch? How do we win without lynching scum?

He keeps saying that he thinks that town can win even if there's more mafia left.

Last time I'm doing the math, assuming both that there are no lynches, and that SE does not kill anyone.

Today (D2). 6 town, 3 scum.
D3 - 5 town, 3 scum. Here, there's 4 votes needed to lynch. 1 person voting causes the mafia to get another lynch.
D4 - 4 town, 3 scum. Same as above, 1 vote, causes the mafia to lynch. If there was a D3 lynch, then the mafia can lynch on their own (assuming the game is still on).
D5 - 3 town (max), 3 scum.

OK - so, lets say we make it to D5, 1/2 scum, 1/2 town, and the game is not over.
The scum would be able to quickly lynch someone, and night kill someone else.
So, by that, and we'd have to assume that Zinger is dead by now, if he's not scum, there would be 1 town alive and 3 scum on D6. And town would win?

When I've pointed these things out, his only response is "your scum".



So, while he thinks that Story and I are scum, he wants the day to end in no-lynch. How is that town behavior?

Seriously, if someone can try and convince me that, not only is Zinger telling the truth, but that he's right about being able to win with 1 random town left and 3 mafia, then I'll happily vote for no-lynch and see if we can win. But, no one has been able to present a single reasonable argument for either of those, aside from Zingers "trust me". Which, is not reasonable to me.

So, for now, I'm in the belief that this is a normal mafia game. Yeah, maybe Zinger's got some crazy ability that can allow him (not town, by his own admission) to win on D6. But, I don't want Zinger to win, I want town to win.

I'll check back to see what Numbers posts. All of this, "Neo must be scum since he's caught Zinger in a lie" just makes no sense to me.

I haven't once commented on my alignment. I could be town. I could be scum. I could be third party. This "by his own admission" stuff is BS. Stop twisting my words Neo.

Unvote

Okay, so no lynch works.

That said, it would just be weird for Scarlet to design a game where the players can gather together on Day 1, agree to a No Lynch for the days to comes and town wins just like that. We might as well end our game right here.

I read the exchange between Zinger and Neo and the thing about Neo arguing with Zinger about being alive and what not. My guess is that Zinger is gonna get nked if he is not mafia anyway.

I am fine with a Neo lynch.

Neo, and how's that any different from Altimis pushing for a NL on D1 of every single game he plays? He has a plan that you don't think it works. How's that scum behavior?

Besides, no one is asking you to vote for a NL. I'll even say this again: I'm not voting for a NL today. It's just that you jumped into the conclusion that Zinger is scum lying based on nothing. When you factor that you did basically the same thing with Story earlier today, things start to look awry for you. And I have yet to see this so called "Zinger lie" you caught.

@Confused
Why do you think Zinger is going to die tonight?

Fel - how can you say that my conclusion is based on nothing?
To me, his actions are anti-town. He's got a crazy plan based on not lynching. He's been convinced that Story is scum since D1. Today, he's also convinced that I'm scum. But he'd rather the day end in no-lynch. How is that town behavior?

As for the lie, maybe that's the wrong word.

Per Zinger:
Zinger cannot win unless he is alive.
Town can win without Zinger being alive.

How can those two statements be true if Zinger is town?

@Confused - at this point, I'm OK with a Neo lynch as well. Any lynch would be better than no-lynch.

@fel: Allow me to correct it. What I meant was 'nked sooner or later anyway'.

Mmkay. Let's get into things.

First I'm going to state what Neo is ignoring. At the first mention Neo made of not needing to be alive to win, he asserted that Zinger must have a different win con because he said he needs to be alive to win. Zinger immediately responded by stating his dual win con: All mallet aligned players dead or his ability triggering. Zinger than follows up that since he doesn't know for certain the extent of the mallet alignment that he's striving for his second condition, which he's said requires him to be alive at the end of the game.

Now Neo is asserting that since Zinger says he must be alive to win but town doesn't need him alive, there's no possible way he's town, except there's that whole dual win con thing. The first condition of Zinger's stated win con doesn't require him to be alive to win. The second does, as his ability will not trigger if he's dead.

Here's where things get sticky. So before I go any further I'm going to put some things out that I deem to be self evident. First is the assessment of who is "town". With three dead Gensokyo so far, we can safely label them as town as one of said players was presumably the mafia nk as well as the fact that Scar told us the three weakest have risen to power due to the previous mallet wish. If Gensokyo was the three that risen to power, they'd all be dead already. Taking into account that this is a twelve player game and the mod has stated that a number of people are seeking to undo the mallet wish by seeking out the three new main powers and eliminating them, balance tells us that the three targets are more than likely to be the sole opposition to the town. Since we have established Gensokyo is the town and there's rumblings of a mallet alignment, it's fair to say that this game is strictly Gensokyo vs Mallet.

Now throwing back to Zinger, his first condition stated was the elimination of the mallet players. As Gensokyo myself, this rung especially hard since it was my own win con word for word. I wanted others to weigh in before pointing this out because I wanted to see how many would ignore this in the manner that Neo and, by cherry-pick, Story had. I find it hard to believe that a town player would not recognize the town win con at first and then blatantly ignore it after the fact the way Neo has. This argument, of course, is all a bit meta.

This brings us back to my statement previously about Zinger grossly misreading the situation. By that I meant that first he had missed that his first clause is simply winning with town. But also that his second clause meant that town would auto win. As I said at that time, I did not have the information he had, but now I feel like I understand the situation so much more. I'm hesitant to get into the second clause at this juncture because of what I still do not know, but I feel some directing is prudent at this juncture. Any town protective roles we have out there, whether that be story or somebody who simply did not wish to counter Story's doc claim, should aim their sights at Zinger for the foreseeable future.

@Zinger, about your ability, without giving anything away would you say discussing the matter would be greatly detrimental to the town?

As for the plan to stretch the game out to day 6, I do not and will not support it given that it's completely unnecessary. Zingers first win condition is simply the town win condition so that's what we should be striving for regardless. If we do our job right, we might not see day 6 but won't need to. If we stumble along the way we might make it there by chance. If Zinger is right and Mallet have to do something more than just match numbers, it might be our hail mary pass.

I feel like I'm forgetting to address something, so if you see any gaps or have questions please address them immediately so I can respond before deadline.

And the cherry on top, my vote for the day:

Vote: NeoSilk

I was doing my best not to confirm what the town wincon was.
And I personally felt Neo's claim that his win con did not require him alive to win hit home for me.

I'm taking this opportunity to re-read Zinger.



This is the first time Zinger made his claim. What I get from this post is that:

1) Town auto-wins D6
2) If Zinger is alive D6, he also wins.

From the way he stated 2), I inferred the following:

3) Zinger does not have to be alive for Town to auto-win D6

Brainstorming, I can think of two situations where 1), 2), and 3) can all be true:

4) Zinger is not town
5) the D6 auto-win only applies to Town that are alive.

Zinger states that town auto-wins on D6, yet also seemed to imply that he himself is not guaranteed to win on D6.
So, logically speaking, Zinger isn't town, which is 4).
But Zinger also can't be mafia in this case, or 1) is probably not true.
This led to my quote here:



I mostly wanted to validate the info since at this point Zinger made no mention that he had to be alive for town to auto-win.
In fact, as I have stated repeatedly, he heavily implied otherwise in his initial claim.

In my first iteration, 5) didn't occur as an option to me, but thinking about it now, this could possibly be true.
This way, Town auto-wins... technically. But even as town, Zinger may not necessarily win when D6 comes around.
This assumes, however, that Zinger does not need to be alive for the wincon to trigger, and that he has to be alive to win.

Skipping past some garbage, we come to this post:



This was the post, where in my heart, it was set in stone that Zinger was lying.
I interpreted the sentence "My ability will only trigger if I am alive at the end of the game." to mean:

6) "My ability [that causes Town to auto-win] will only trigger if I am alive at the end of the game".

This directly contradicts 3), where he implied that he did not have to be alive for town to auto-win.

As I sit typing this, however, it came to my mind that this could easily be interpreted to mean:

7) "My ability [that lets me win with Town] will only trigger if I am alive at the end of the game".

The town auto-win could easily be unrelated to his ability.
So does this argument have merit?
Let's consider 7) with cases 4) and 5).
It obviously doesn't make sense with 5), since his ability doesn't trigger if dead, and there's no need to trigger if he's alive.
Then how about 4)? It makes sense if he's not town, right?
Yes, it makes logical sense. But then, in this situation Zinger has still lied.

In response to my statement quoted earlier this post, he replies:



*IDK why, but the forum refuses to include my quote. I have underlined the same portion Zinger underlined in my quote above.*

In this quote, he basically claims that he is neither mafia nor non-town. AKA, he's town.
This directly contradicts 4), and thus in the end, there must be a lie in here somewhere.

...and that is why I still believe Zinger's position untenable.
If there is a flaw in my reasoning, please tell me.

This is extremely weak given only the survivor role has to survive to win (SKs are sticky in this matter, as even though there are sole survivor variants, they do not always have to survive to win). What this argument boils down to is "I'm not a survivor role, so you can't be town." It has no logical basis. Meanwhile, while rare, town aligned survivors have existed previously, giving evidence to the contrary of this very argument.

As for the guaranteed D6 win, if it's independent of Zinger, it speaks nothing about Zinger. If it is truly independent it's a game mechanic. In which case Zinger having knowledge of it would simply be a facet of his role as is his ability, regardless of his alignment. So if we take that as a premise to brainstorming we can come to the following possibilities:

1) Zinger's stated win cons are true. He is town and can win either with town or by triggering his ability (the dual win con can create a situation where Zinger scores a double W, or a situation where he can win without town winning prior to day 6).
2) Zinger is not town/not mafia and must survive to win.
3) Zinger is mafia but if he is alive Day 6, he can win in spite of the town win.

All of these possibilities satisfy your 1, 2, and 3 premises, but leave you with no information to draw conclusions on. Your conclusions only come by adding in the information you have supposedly inferred from Zinger. The problem with drawing conclusions on inferrences though is you're drawing on non-statements. You get to read whatever you want into it without having to actually provided any solid evidence towards your conclusions. You simply get to say, "this is what I read your statement as" and Zinger can come back with, "That's not what I said." to which you can loop right back into, "well that's what I read".

I was under the impression that Mafia was a game of nuances.
What one meant to say and what one actually said can mean a whole world of difference.

Also, are you telling me that this quote:

Really doesn't imply at all that he doesn't have to be alive D6?'

As for your explanation, I've addressed why 2) doesn't help. He'd still have lied about not being non-town.
1) is plain stupidity. We know one of the triggers for his ability is that he has to be alive. If Zinger's win cons are as he stated, and Town auto-wins D6, AND Zinger is town, then there are only so many possibilities. Town is alive on D6 and Zinger is dead; Town auto-wins, and so does Zinger. Town is alive on D6 and so is Zinger; Zinger scores a double win. Town is dead and Zinger is alive; Zinger scores a double win (since Zinger is still town). Town is dead and so is Zinger; Zinger loses. Zinger's win/loss situation doesn't change AT ALL regardless of whether he had the ability or not.
3) is a possibility I hadn't mentioned, but I simply can't see this happening. Also, if this case is true, then I see no reason to hesitate in lynching him.